From ‘Howdy Modi’ to ‘Hello Islamabad,’ a Foreign Policy for Sale

Few modern presidents have made foreign policy so theatrical or so transactional as the 47th U.S. President Donald Trump. From flirtations with autocrats to outlandish territorial gambits, his diplomacy has often resembled a business pitch rather than any strategic doctrine. In this series, we track the shadow of Trumpism abroad - from Beijing to the Baltics, Gaza to Greenland as Trump, in his second coming, is leaving behind not just disruption, but a trail of broken alliances, bruised institutions and a deepening mistrust of America’s word.

PART- 1

In India, the widespread realization dawning post-Operation Sindoor is that Washington under Trump is no ally, but a transactional bazaar.

As Indian arms were decimating Pakistani army infrastructure and smashing terror camps deep inside Pakistan and in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir during Operation Sindoor, Donald Trump, true to form, jumped the gun on May 10 and megaphoned from his handle ‘Truth Social’ on X that India and Pakistan had “agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE.”

The Indian government, blindsided by this unsolicited intervention, was dismissive, stressing later that no ceasefire had been proposed. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had until recently basked in the optics of a Trump-Modi bromance (notably at Houston’s ‘Howdy Modi’ rally in 2019) was conspicuously silent on Trump’s announcement of a ‘ceasefire.’ There was nothing beautiful about the moment except perhaps for Pakistan, which used Trump’s declaration to paint itself once again as the victim of the Indian onslaught (despite instigating the Pahalgam massacre of April 22) and the subject of American concern.

For many across the country and the Indian diaspora in America and elsewhere, Trump’s bizarre ‘ceasefire’ announcement was a moment of dark clarity. It crystallized what has become increasingly difficult to ignore in the past few days that America’s transactional president was not on India’s side. He might not be on anyone’s side, really except his own.

To be fair, Trump has never pretended to be a man of doctrine. He has long fancied himself the world’s greatest dealmaker, untethered to history, morality or even consistency. But his second coming to the White House (which was nonetheless looked upon with great promise in the first 100 days) has deepened a pattern that was already alarming during his first term: the foreign policy of the United States under Trump appears to be for sale.

Nowhere is this more visible than in his Pakistan tilt. Long dismissed as a haven for terrorists, Pakistan has suddenly found itself back in Washington’s good graces.

Many Indian observers are wondering aloud whether the answer is mineral and monetary. As global demand for lithium and rare earth elements skyrockets, Afghanistan, with its estimated $1 trillion in mineral wealth, has become the new object of geopolitical lust. Extracting these resources would require a secure corridor, and that corridor runs through Pakistan. It is not hard to see why Trump, always on the hunt for the next shiny asset, might be tempted to indulge Pakistan’s military establishment if it meant access to a lithium motherlode.

But there are personal incentives, too. Trump’s foreign holdings have always lurked in the background of his presidency, a kind of ethical smog that never fully clears. An unsettling fintech agreement signed between the newly-formed Pakistan Crypto Council and the US-based World Liberty Financial has drawn attention for its links to Donald Trump’s family.

The firm, majority-owned by Trump’s sons, Eric and Donald Jr., and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, has pledged to turn Pakistan into South Asia’s crypto capital. Binance’s founder was swiftly onboarded as an adviser, and the deal covers blockchain integration, stablecoin development and tokenized finance for Pakistani institutions.

What raised eyebrows in Delhi, however, was not the Trump family’s commercial interest but the enthusiastic presence of Pakistan’s army chief, General Asim Munir, who personally welcomed the American delegation. The group also met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and senior cabinet ministers, prompting strategic analysts to question whether the ostensibly apolitical agreement masks deeper geopolitical aims. For India, this budding crypto alliance is a shadowy strategic hedge.

Adding to this, two controversial figures have now been appointed by the Trump administration to the White House’s Religious Liberty Commission: Ismail Royer, a man once convicted for training with Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based terrorist outfit, and Shaykh Hamza Yusuf, an Islamic scholar previously named in an Indian counterterror probe for allegedly incendiary speeches. This development further fuels concerns that Trump’s outreach to Islamist figures (under the banner of religious liberty) masks deeper transactional motives with Islamabad.

Throughout his political career, Trump’s broader instinct has been to court leaders who flatter him, countries that enable his brand and regimes that offer material benefits - whether in the form of diplomatic praise, lucrative business arrangements or vague promises of geopolitical cooperation. That instinct explains not just his turn toward Pakistan, but also his alarming warmth toward Qatar, Syria and others long deemed problematic by U.S. foreign policy consensus.

In a move that stunned diplomats and infuriated allies, Trump unilaterally lifted sanctions on Syria and warmly embraced Ahmed al-Sharaa, a man previously sanctioned by the U.S. for aiding terrorism. Al-Sharaa had seized power from Bashar al-Assad in a bloody coup and is now presiding over a regime that is ethnically cleansing Christian minorities with industrial efficiency. Trump called him a “strong guy” and praised his “excellent business sense.”

Qatar, meanwhile, has become a second home for Trump-world both literally and metaphorically. The luxury Boeing 747-8, owned by the Qatari royal family, being ‘loaned’ to serve as a temporary Air Force One is the latest cause celebre in this vertiginous world. Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner received billions in Qatari investment for his real estate ventures shortly after leaving the White House the first time around. Trump’s old fixer, Steve Witkoff, whose Soho property flopped spectacularly, found new life in a Doha bailout. Pam Bondi, Trump’s informal emissary in his second term, once worked at a firm on Qatar’s payroll.

How much influence does this buy? Enough, apparently, to make a tiny Gulf monarchy that shelters Taliban negotiators and bankrolls Hamas look like a ‘moderating force’ in Trump’s telling. Enough to erase memory of Trump’s initial hostility toward Qatar during the Gulf blockade in 2017. Enough to invite speculation about quid pro quos so brazen they barely pretend to be covert.

There’s an Emoluments Clause in the U.S. Constitution. It forbids a president from receiving gifts, payments or titles from foreign governments. But Trump, as ever, sidesteps scrutiny by operating through proxies, licensing deals and friendly sovereign wealth funds. The result is a foreign policy that increasingly resembles a private equity fund in search of cash-rich backers and politically useful assets.

Many in India bet heavily on Trump in 2016 and again last year, adoring Trump’s tough talk on Islamist extremism, his China hawkishness and his disdain for liberal sanctimony. Then, there was the personal rapport between Modi and Trump.

But there is a growing disenchantment after the studied American silence following the Pahalgam massacre and the events of Operation Sindoor. Upset Indians have questioned why the U.S. indulges in Pakistan’s duplicity? Why is India’s restraint rewarded with condescension and betrayal?

Trump’s defenders (certainly not many in India at this moment) argue that his ‘unpredictability’ is part of some grand strategy of ‘creative disruption.’ But for America’s partners, especially those like India who have staked real political capital on aligning with Trump’s Washington, such randomness is corrosive.

This matters beyond just diplomatic etiquette. The Indo-Pacific region, where the U.S. has vowed to counterbalance China’s rise, relies on trust. When America bends over backward for Pakistan, lifts sanctions on Syria and allows Qatar to buy its way into the heart of decision-making, trust evaporates.

This leaves us with a cynical calculus: if Trump’s America can be swayed with money, flattery and the promise of ‘deals,’ then why bother with partnerships or shared democratic ideals?

In the final analysis, Donald Trump’s foreign policy is not about America First. It is about Trump First. That may explain his tilt toward Pakistan, his flirtation with warlords and his eagerness to sell influence to the highest bidder.

In Trump’s world, every handshake has a price. And no promise lasts longer than the news cycle.

(Tomorrow, we turn to Donald Trump’s rekindled interest in the Panama Canal. Once a symbol of American engineering prowess, now a chokepoint threatened by drought, Chinese influence and Trump’s own foreign policy ambitions)