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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to...

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to reconsider its monetary policy, proving that climate shocks are now dictating everyday financial realities. ​ For decades, economists and policymakers have anxiously tracked the Indian monsoon, relying on rain gauges and reservoir levels to forecast agricultural output and inflation. However, HSBC’s analysis reveals a startling paradigm shift: tracking rising temperatures has now become a far more accurate method for predicting food inflation than observing traditional rainfall patterns. As average surface temperatures breach historical thresholds, the sensitivity of food prices to extreme heat has increased dramatically. During El Niño years, the probability of severe temperature spikes is now significantly higher than the chances of a rainfall deficit. These intensifying spikes mean the thermometer has become a far more vital forecasting tool for the central bank than the rain gauge. ​ The effects of this warming planet are cascading through various walks of life, starting at the very roots of the agricultural sector. Intense and frequent heatwaves are no longer just wilting delicate, perishable crops like fruits and vegetables, which have traditionally been highly vulnerable to sudden temperature fluctuations. The soaring mercury is now directly threatening the resilience of durable staple crops, including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, and sugar. When these crucial crops fail to withstand the intensifying heat, the immediate fallout is a sharp surge in food prices. While robust granaries might offer a temporary buffer, the overarching trend points to persistent agricultural distress, threatening food security and pushing the financial burden directly onto the plates of ordinary citizens. Complex Web ​This climate-induced disruption is creating a complex web of challenges for the national economy. The HSBC report predicts that the combination of El Niño-driven temperature shocks and global energy pressures could push headline inflation to an average of 5.6 percent in the 2026-27 financial year. This overlapping environmental and economic crisis leaves the Reserve Bank of India in a precarious position. To combat the inflationary heat, the central bank is projected to deliver two interest rate hikes between late 2026 and early 2027, ultimately pushing the repo rate to 5.75 percent. However, the central bank must tread carefully, as these relentless climate shocks are simultaneously dragging down the nation's economic momentum, with GDP growth projections downgraded from a robust 7.4 percent to a sluggish 6 percent. ​ Ultimately, the heaviest toll of this shifting climate is borne by the most vulnerable segments of society. The intersection of severe weather events, rising food costs, and tightening economic policies strikes hardest at the informal sector. Rural households, small agricultural businesses, and daily wage earners find their livelihoods increasingly squeezed by extreme weather forces entirely out of their control. The warming climate is fundamentally changing the drivers of India’s economic growth, turning environmental predictability into a luxury of the past. As policymakers grapple with these twin shocks of heat and inflation, it is evident that climate change has firmly rooted itself in every facet of Indian life.

Lung health awareness should be prioritised

Ustad Zakir Hussain

Zakir Hussain Succumbs to Rare Lung Disease Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF): A Wake-Up Call for Lung Health Awareness Renowned pulmonologist Dr. Abhijit Ahuja from Saifee Hospital underscores the importance of early diagnosis and public awareness.


Zakir Hussain’s untimely demise has highlighted the devastating impact of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF), a rare and chronic lung disease often overlooked due to its silent progression. This condition leads to irreversible thickening and scarring of the lung tissues (fibrosis), impairing the lungs’ ability to function. The exact cause of this life-threatening condition remains unknown, which is why it is termed “idiopathic.”


According to Dr. Abhijit Ahuja, a leading pulmonologist at Saifee Hospital, there is an urgent need for public education regarding IPF. “Many people are unaware of IPF, and its symptoms are often dismissed as minor or age-related. Tragically, most diagnoses occur at advanced stages when treatment options are limited. Early detection is crucial for improving patient outcomes and quality of life,” stated Dr. Ahuja.


Recognizing the Symptoms of IPF

IPF begins with subtle symptoms, making it challenging to diagnose early. Patients and healthcare providers must be vigilant about the following signs:

• Persistent shortness of breath (dyspnea), especially during physical activity

• Chronic dry cough that does not improve over time

• Unexplained fatigue and general weakness

• Sudden, unintended weight loss


“Many patients with IPF misinterpret their symptoms as signs of aging or other common respiratory problems. Unfortunately, this leads to delayed diagnosis,” Dr. Ahuja explained. Diagnosis involves a detailed review of the patient’s medical history, high-resolution CT scans, and lung function tests to confirm the presence of fibrosis.


Treatment and Management Options

While there is no cure for IPF, recent advancements in medicine offer hope by slowing the disease’s progression and managing symptoms effectively. Treatments used at institutions like Saifee Hospital include:

1. Antifibrotic Drugs: Medications like pirfenidone and nintedanib significantly reduce the progression of scarring in the lungs.

2. Oxygen Therapy: Providing supplemental oxygen helps manage breathlessness and improves patients’ energy levels.

3. Pulmonary Rehabilitation: Structured programs of breathing exercises and physical training enhance lung capacity, stamina, and quality of life.

4. Lung Transplantation: For severe cases, lung transplantation may be considered a life-saving option.


Dr. Ahuja emphasized, “The combination of antifibrotic drugs, oxygen therapy, and pulmonary rehabilitation can slow disease progression and improve patients’ lives. However, the success of these treatments hinges on early detection.”


Prognosis and Early Detection

IPF is a rapidly progressing disease with a poor prognosis. The average life expectancy following diagnosis is 3 to 5 years. However, early diagnosis and timely intervention can extend survival and significantly enhance quality of life.


Dr. Ahuja added, “Regular health check-ups and vigilance about respiratory health are vital. Early intervention is the only way to ensure a better prognosis for IPF patients.”


A Call for Greater Awareness

The tragic passing of Zakir Hussain has underscored the importance of raising awareness about rare diseases like IPF. Many people remain unaware of IPF’s early symptoms, leading to delayed diagnosis and limited treatment options.


Dr. Ahuja stated, “Awareness campaigns should emphasize that persistent shortness of breath and a chronic cough should never be ignored. Early referral to pulmonologists and tests like CT scans are crucial for identifying this disease at its initial stages.”


Saifee Hospital is actively involved in spreading awareness about lung diseases, offering cutting-edge diagnostic tools, and providing comprehensive care for patients with IPF and other respiratory conditions.


Supporting IPF Patients and Families

IPF is not just physically debilitating—it also takes a severe mental and emotional toll on patients. Family members and caregivers play an integral role in helping patients cope with the challenges of daily life.


Dr. Ahuja added, “While medical care is critical, psychological support for patients and their families is equally important. Addressing the emotional and mental strain can significantly improve the overall well-being of those living with IPF.”


Zakir Hussain’s Passing: A Lesson for All

Zakir Hussain’s untimely demise is a somber reminder of the need to prioritize lung health. It urges individuals to seek medical attention for unexplained breathlessness or persistent coughing and emphasizes the importance of early intervention in preventing severe outcomes.


Dr. Abhijit Ahuja of Saifee Hospital concluded, “Every individual experiencing symptoms like breathlessness or an unrelenting dry cough should consult a pulmonologist promptly. Early diagnosis can make all the difference.”


Let us honor Zakir Hussain’s legacy by spreading awareness about IPF and supporting those battling this rare and life-altering condition.


(The author is a leading pulmonologist at Saifee Hospital, Mumbai. Views personal.)

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