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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 4:59:11 pm

Speculations of ‘Operation Tiger’

Mumbai: Recent disqualification of former Mumbai Mayor Vishakha Raut and senior corporator Deepak Sawant has sent shockwaves through the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), sparking speculation of a targeted municipal sequel to the Shiv Sena split. With a surge of election petitions now threatening dozens of elected representatives, whispers of a new form of calculated “Operation Tiger” are growing louder. Many suspect this is a strategic move to dismantle the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray...

Speculations of ‘Operation Tiger’

Mumbai: Recent disqualification of former Mumbai Mayor Vishakha Raut and senior corporator Deepak Sawant has sent shockwaves through the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), sparking speculation of a targeted municipal sequel to the Shiv Sena split. With a surge of election petitions now threatening dozens of elected representatives, whispers of a new form of calculated “Operation Tiger” are growing louder. Many suspect this is a strategic move to dismantle the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (UBT) faction’s remaining stronghold in the civic body. Recent action against Raut and Sawant, whose Other Backward Classes (OBC) caste certificates were invalidated, reveals a broader vulnerability. According to BMC data, a staggering 79 election petitions are currently active against corporators across various parties. The charges primarily challenge the authenticity of caste verification certificates, but also include discrepancies in election affidavits concerning declared properties and income. While the sheer volume of petitions against the UBT camp is alarming, civic authorities note that filing a petition does not automatically result in disqualification. The process requires exhausting several legal and administrative steps. Even after a ruling by a caste scrutiny committee or judicial authority, the urban development department must formally issue a gazette notification before a seat is declared vacant. The timing of these petitions has fueled intense speculation. Against the backdrop of the ongoing Supreme Court hearings regarding the original Shiv Sena’s party name and election symbol, analysts suggest rival factions are leveraging these petitions. This municipal “Operation Tiger” appears designed to either legally disqualify embattled UBT members or pressure them into defection to avoid a public unseating. If these petitions lead to widespread disqualifications, the UBT faction risks losing its position as the largest opposition bloc, fundamentally altering the balance of power in Asia’s richest civic body. Election petitions against BMC corporators Political Party: Active Petitions Shiv Sena (UBT): 24 Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): 18 Congress: 10 Shiv Sena (Shinde): 7 AIMIM: 7

Phone Call Diplomacy

In an India-US relationship increasingly tested by geopolitics, a direct line between leaders may do more than a round of public diplomacy.

While diplomacy is often imagined in the grand settings of summit tables and choreographed handshakes, some of its most consequential work happens without any of them.


Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent conversation with US Vice-President JD Vance is in this less glamorous sense. Amid the chill pervading India-US relations, the significance of the call lay in keeping the political machinery between the two countries moving.


Strategic Partnership

India and America have accumulated an unusually broad strategic partnership. Defence, energy, critical minerals, emerging technologies and resilient supply chains now sit alongside the older pillars of commerce and people-to-people ties. Both countries have compelling reasons to deepen this cooperation. Both also have increasingly complicated domestic and geopolitical calculations. Trade is the most visible fault line.


India wants greater access to the American market and a more predictable trading environment. Washington, meanwhile, has its own concerns about tariffs, market access and the terms on which American businesses compete in India. These differences are unlikely to disappear merely because two leaders have had a friendly conversation. But high-level political contact can prevent commercial disagreements from becoming strategic ones.


That matters at a moment when the global trading system itself is being rearranged. In the age of Donald Trump’s transactional brand of diplomacy, tariffs are no longer merely instruments of economic policy but are increasingly deployed as tools of geopolitical leverage. As a result of the US’s slapping of tariffs on India, we have had has to negotiate with Washington while preserving room for manoeuvre elsewhere in order to retain our strategic autonomy. America, for its part, sees India as an increasingly important partner in the Indo-Pacific and in the effort to build supply chains less dependent on strategic rivals, notably China.


Regional Context

The conversation also needs to be read against a wider geopolitical map in which Indian interests and American interests are increasingly converging, though not always in identical ways. The Gulf, the Indo-Pacific, terrorism, energy security and emerging technologies can no longer be treated as discrete compartments of foreign policy.


For India, which depends heavily on stable energy supplies and open sea lanes while seeking a larger role in the Indo-Pacific, these developments have direct economic as well as strategic consequences. For Washington, India is increasingly important to the architecture of a more resilient Indo-Pacific and to efforts to diversify critical supply chains. Regular leader-level communication is therefore a form of strategic risk management.


There is a human dimension to the relationship as well. Vice-President Vance’s wife, Usha Vance, has Indian family roots, giving her an unusual personal connection to a country that has become increasingly important to the American strategic establishment. While Modi’s public congratulations to the Vances on the birth of their son was, in itself, a small gesture, personal familiarity in diplomacy does create an additional layer of comfort in relationships otherwise governed by competing national priorities.


Yet personal chemistry has limits. India and America are partners, not allies in the treaty-bound sense. Their interests will not always coincide. New Delhi will continue to guard its strategic autonomy while Washington will continue to pursue its own commercial and geopolitical priorities. A mature relationship is therefore is one that is capable of absorbing friction.


That is where digital diplomacy earns its keep. A leader does not need to travel to Washington to convey reassurance or defuse a misunderstanding. A direct conversation can signal that disagreements remain negotiable and that neither side wants them to contaminate the wider relationship. In fact, in the age of instant communication, waiting for the next summit can itself become a diplomatic liability.


India’s relationship with America has already undergone a remarkable transformation. The suspicion of the Cold War years has given way to cooperation in areas that would once have seemed improbable. But strategic relationships require maintenance, particularly when economic interests and geopolitical priorities begin pulling in different directions.


The real test of the Modi-Vance conversation, therefore, will come after the pleasantries. Can it help narrow the trade differences? Can it preserve momentum in defence and technology cooperation? Can it persuade both sides that disagreements over tariffs need not become disagreements over strategy?


If yes, the call will have done something more valuable than produce another optimistic diplomatic headline.


(The writer is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)

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