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By:

Quaid Najmi

4 January 2025 at 3:26:24 pm

Neutral IOD ‘battles’ a strong El Nino

Commuters navigate a waterlogged road after heavy rainfall at Vasai-Virar on Wednesday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: Belying gloomy forecasts of a potentially devastating monsoon 2026 season, a ‘neutral’ Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – an ocean-atmosphere phenomena – may have helped soften the impact of a brutal El Nino over the sub-continent. As reported by ‘The Perfect Voice’ (May 31), a ‘very strong’ El Nino threatened to overshadow the rainy season with erratic rains, uneven spread, heat waves, farm...

Neutral IOD ‘battles’ a strong El Nino

Commuters navigate a waterlogged road after heavy rainfall at Vasai-Virar on Wednesday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: Belying gloomy forecasts of a potentially devastating monsoon 2026 season, a ‘neutral’ Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – an ocean-atmosphere phenomena – may have helped soften the impact of a brutal El Nino over the sub-continent. As reported by ‘The Perfect Voice’ (May 31), a ‘very strong’ El Nino threatened to overshadow the rainy season with erratic rains, uneven spread, heat waves, farm distress and fresh inflationary pressures on the economy, but was likely to be neutralized by the IOD. Considering the recent 10-days of torrential downpour in large parts of western and southern India, experts are optimistic that the IOD may help salvage this year’s monsoon, as it did in the past. The forecasts of a neutral IOD in May-June have proved true and meteorologists are hopeful that it may even turn positive as the season progresses and the rains cover the entire country in July. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said today: “Conditions are favourable for the further advance of Southwest Monsoon into the remaining parts of the north Arabian Sea, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and the rest of the country in the next 2-3 days.” Forecast models indicated a ‘strong to very strong’ El Nino by the year-end, and earlier even the IMD had placed India dangerously close to ‘deficient rainfall’ category this year. The current spell of heavy rains has brought smiles with water bodies filling up quickly in Maharashtra. Even the worried Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) announced a 41+ pc water storage today – lighting up Mumbaikars, though apprehensions persist over the rest of the season. Active Phase However, the waxing and waning of the monsoon rainfall is a normal process and the monsoon is currently in the ‘active phase’ due to multiple weather systems, according to climatologist Kartiki Negi, Lead, Climate Impact at Climate Trends. “Monsoon 2026 began under the threat of a strong El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean, but we must not forget the impact of climate change that has altered the character of the monsoon forever,” Negi told ‘The Perfect Voice’. The Pacific Ocean rapidly warmed toward El Niño conditions after a rare year of climatic transition. India began the year under weak La Nina conditions, shifted into ENSO-neutral conditions, and is now moving into El Nino territory in the second half of 2026 - itself a rare sequence in a single calendar year, experts said. Explaining the scenario this year, Negi said: “During the ‘active phases’ of monsoon, we will see high-intensity events in shorter duration. El Niño is also known for temporarily enhancing global temperatures. The number of rainy days will be less but spells of extremely heavy rains cannot be ruled out”. Incidentally, in the past 75 years, the world has seen only four ‘Super El Ninos’ - in 1982, 1991, 1997 and 2015 seasons. What is El Niño A battle between the weather conditions of the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean often decides the monsoon rain quota for India – whether there will be abundant rainfall or drought conditions – directly hitting agriculture, economy and the people. The culprit is El Nino, which develops when the eastern Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm, the heated air alters the global wind patterns, weakening the moisture-laden monsoon winds headed towards India – with potentially disastrous consequences. Its opposite phase is La Nina, which cools the Pacific Ocean, boosts Indian monsoon and results in widespread and intense rainfall. However, there is a buffer close by – the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – which can help balance the conditions in the western Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia. In a positive IOD, warmer waters near Africa and cooler waters near Indonesia generate stronger rain-bearing winds towards India and help offset the negative effects of El Nino – as in 2019, when India escaped a drought. But during a negative IOD, the rainfall moves towards Indonesia, and when it happens during an El Nino year, India can face a huge risk of severe drought. This year, the IOD is in a neutral phase currently, and experts are hopeful it may turn positive over the coming months, thus sparing India of the spectre of a major drought, despite the El Nino. As an expert said: “Even a slight change in sea surface temperature thousands of kms away can affect the rice on our plates…”

Sacred Attire

Updated: Jan 30, 2025

The Siddhivinayak Temple Trust’s recent decision to implement a dress code prohibiting short skirts, torn jeans and other revealing attire is a necessary move to uphold the sanctity of religious spaces. Temples are spiritual spaces where devotees seek solace, offer prayers, and connect with the divine. Temples are not mere tourist attractions but sacred sanctuaries. The least that visitors can do is dress accordingly.


The Jagannath temple in Puri, Odisha, and the Banke Bihari temple in Vrindavan have already implemented similar rules, reflecting a growing recognition that religious spaces require a modicum of decorum. In the case of Siddhivinayak, the temple attracts thousands of devotees daily, many of whom have expressed discomfort over attire that they feel clashes with the temple’s spiritual ambience.


Few would question the need for decorum in a courtroom, a government office, or even an upscale restaurant. Yet, when religious institutions enforce dress codes to preserve their sanctity, a chorus of indignation often rises in the name of personal freedom, with such ‘critics’ arguing that such rules reflect moral policing or an imposition of traditionalist values.

But this argument confuses religious sanctity with public space liberalism. No one is being compelled to enter the temple, and those who do should respect the customs that govern it. Even in non-Hindu religious spaces, dress codes are the norm. One does not enter a gurdwara without covering their head, nor a mosque or church dressed in attire deemed unsuitable for prayer. The sanctity of a religious institution should not be sacrificed at the altar of modern whims.


To dismiss this as an encroachment on personal liberties is to misunderstand the nature of such spaces. Religious sites operate under different expectations than public thoroughfares or commercial hubs. They are designed for reflection, devotion, and ritual. While Indian society has rightly evolved towards greater personal freedom in many spheres, faith-based institutions must be allowed to maintain traditions that are integral to their identity. The temple trust has made it clear that its goal is not to impose regressive restrictions but to ensure that all visitors feel comfortable and that the sanctity of the temple is upheld.


Moreover, the argument that religious sites must remain entirely open-ended in their dress codes simply does not hold water. Many of the people who object to these restrictions would scarcely question the need for appropriate attire at a formal event or while meeting a dignitary. The principle is the same -respect for the setting dictates the mode of dress. Those who seek to frame this as a battle between liberalism and conservatism fail to grasp that such measures are about propriety, not repression.


In an era where the lines between cultural expression and decorum are increasingly blurred, it is worth remembering that not every rule is an infringement on liberty. If people can abide by dress codes in secular spaces, they should extend the same courtesy to places of worship.

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