top of page

By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

Strategic Fault Lines and India’s Balancing Act

India faces a delicate balancing act, juggling rival powers while safeguarding its strategic autonomy and regional interests.

Earlier this month, Chinese and Russian navies held the "Maritime Interaction–2025" exercise in the Sea of Japan. While their joint drills strengthen coordination, North Korea has supplied munitions to Russia since 2024, and Iran’s drones continue to bolster Russia’s war effort, defence analysts report.


These moves highlight the growing convergence of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, dubbed the "Axis of Upheaval" by analysts. This alignment arises from shared aims to reduce Western pressure, mutual wartime needs, and efforts to counter sanctions. For India, the evolving network presents opportunities and challenges, impacting its strategic autonomy, energy security, and regional policy.


The Axis of Upheaval’s momentum has grown. Naval drills signalled Beijing and Moscow’s readiness to showcase their partnership in contested waters. Defence analysts report North Korea's missile and artillery transfers to Russia since 2024 under their mutual assistance treaty. Iranian Shahed drones remain key to Russia’s Ukraine operations. Meanwhile, an expanding “shadow fleet” of mostly unregistered tankers carries over 70% of Russian oil exports to India’s refineries, though Western crackdowns could disrupt supplies, affecting Gujarat’s industrial hubs and India’s broader economy.


The ‘Axis of Upheaval’ rests on four key bilateral ties, each reinforcing the others to challenge the balance of power. Understanding these ‘four strategic axes’ clarifies how China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea coordinate and how their ties may affect India.


China–Russia: A “no-limits” partnership based on energy trade, Chinese tech for Russian weapons, and regular military coordination. India’s defence ties with Russia—from S-400 systems to Sukhoi jets—contrast sharply with its rivalry with China, requiring careful balance. Earlier this year, Western banking pressure led some Chinese banks to halt Russia-related transactions.


Russia–North Korea: Cooperation rests on the 2024 Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. India, bound by UN sanctions on North Korea, must tread carefully even if Russia loosens oversight.


Russia–Iran: Drone supplies since 2022 were followed by short-range ballistic missile transfers in late 2024. Despite U.S. sanctions risks, India’s Chabahar Port in Iran provides vital access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.


China–Iran: Built on oil trade and joint diplomacy via SCO and BRICS, this relationship links with China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Gwadar port in Pakistan. Despite delays, Chabahar serves as India’s counterweight to China’s influence.


Binding Factors

The Axis of Upheaval is bound by economic, military, and diplomatic ties. Economically, members bypass Western sanctions through “shadow fleets” of unregistered tankers and rising yuan trade, sustaining vital oil and gas revenue despite global curbs. Militarily, they support each other with weapons, drones, munitions, and dual-use technology, filling capability gaps. Diplomatically, they unite in the SCO and BRICS, promoting a multipolar order challenging Western dominance.


This alignment is imperfect. China hesitates to supply lethal aid to Russia, wary of losing Western markets and sanctions. Members have distinct priorities—Russia faces Europe, Iran projects Gulf influence, and China consolidates Indo-Pacific power, hindering full unity. Economic pressures, including disrupted Russia-linked payments and rising shipping insurance, add risks. These frictions limit cohesion but reveal a pragmatic, transactional network.


Crises in Ukraine, the Korean Peninsula, and the Gulf may strain Western responses, giving the Axis room to act. A Gulf flare-up could sharply raise India’s oil costs, while ongoing sanctions evasion weakens enforcement. Indo-Pacific tensions, like in the Taiwan Strait, may force India to increase naval patrols, diverting resources from Indian Ocean security.


India’s reliance on Russian crude—40 per cent of 2024 imports, about two million barrels daily—makes it vulnerable to global shifts. Tighter U.S. sanctions could raise oil costs, worsening the trade deficit, inflation, and economic strain. Higher prices would squeeze the middle class, increasing transport and food costs. Disruptions might force India to rely on costlier Middle Eastern oil, impacting transport and manufacturing. Meanwhile, closer China–Iran ties could boost China’s regional influence, strengthen Pakistan’s CPEC projects, and complicate India’s strategy.


In BRICS and SCO, India engages all four Axis members, as seen at the 2024 BRICS summit, where it pushed local currency trade to reduce dollar reliance and counter China’s dominance. Its Cold War non-aligned tradition guides dealings with these blocs and the West. Quad membership, backed by $20 billion in U.S. arms deals and 2024 naval drills, boosts its Indo-Pacific role and balances Axis influence. Chabahar Port remains key but faces delays and sanctions risks, highlighting the need for diverse partnerships. Preserving strategic autonomy will require closer ties with both Western and non-aligned partners. How India navigates this evolving network while safeguarding its independence will be crucial in the coming years.


(The writer is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)

 

 

Comments

bottom of page