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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Battered Modi govt faces ultimate alliance test

A CJP supporter celebrates in Nagpur on Saturday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: For only the second time in its 12-year tenure, the Modi government has been forced to bow down. The dramatic resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is not just a cabinet reshuffle; it marks the climax of a gruelling political standoff that has left the ruling dispensation visibly wounded. What began as a student outcry over exam irregularities morphed into a massive siege, exposing cracks in the...

Battered Modi govt faces ultimate alliance test

A CJP supporter celebrates in Nagpur on Saturday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: For only the second time in its 12-year tenure, the Modi government has been forced to bow down. The dramatic resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is not just a cabinet reshuffle; it marks the climax of a gruelling political standoff that has left the ruling dispensation visibly wounded. What began as a student outcry over exam irregularities morphed into a massive siege, exposing cracks in the government's much-touted armour of invincibility. Now, as the dust settles at Jantar Mantar, the corridors of power in Delhi are whispering about a larger, more existential threat. The true challenge for the BJP no longer lies on the streets, but within the ranks of its own National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners. ​Critics and political analysts are drawing sharp parallels between this student-led movement and the farmers' agitation from a few years ago. There is a strong sentiment within government circles that, much like the Kisan protests, which faced allegations of being fuelled by foreign funding, this current uprising did not stem entirely from a genuine, organic grassroots genesis. Instead, political observers note the presence of organized anarchist elements that quickly capitalised on the national outrage. ​This time, these elements appeared far stronger, and in stark contrast, the establishment looked surprisingly weak and reactive. The ultimate giveaway of the movement's broader political ambitions came moments after Pradhan stepped down. Abhijeet Dipke, the face of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), declared from the protest stage that the resignation was merely the "first wicket". This cricket analogy was a thinly veiled political declaration, making it amply clear that the underlying agenda of the protests extends far beyond education reforms, aiming directly at a regime change. Dipke’s words guarantee that the agitation, in some form or another, will continue. Tactical Victory ​To its credit, the government did manage a tactical victory by keeping the protesters' demands strictly focused on Pradhan's resignation. By doing so, they prevented the narrative from entirely engulfing the top leadership. However, the strategic damage to the ruling party has been catastrophic. The Modi administration has spent over a decade cultivating an image of a stubborn, decisive, and unyielding force that does not cave to public pressure. That image has now taken a severe, perhaps irreversible, beating. ​ During negotiations with activist and educationist Sonam Wangchuk, the government had already made it amply clear that it was actively considering Pradhan's exit. Yet, it inexplicably took almost a week to finally pull the plug and end the standoff. This delay highlights the enormity of the internal challenges and a creeping paralysis within the highest echelons of power. The establishment was likely suffering from a deep-seated complacency, overconfidently assuming the agitation would naturally fizzle out. It took more than 20 days of Wangchuk's hunger strike to finally shatter that hubris and force Delhi’s hand. ​ When juxtaposed with the last four major national agitations—stretching all the way from the Ram Mandir movement to the Anna Hazare anti-corruption crusade—the government's handling of this crisis stands out as an anomaly. The use of police force and state machinery remained remarkably minimal this time around. Despite this restrained approach, the reputational blow the government has suffered appears to be the maximum it has ever faced. A government that prides itself on immense strength is now being perceived as vulnerable. Political Mileage ​In the battle for political mileage, the opposition naturally tried to swoop in. The Congress party and Rahul Gandhi made concerted efforts to hijack the momentum mid-way, attempting to paint the movement in their own political colours. But the youth on the streets fiercely guarded their independence. The ultimate credit for bringing the government to its knees has squarely gone to Dipke. He emerged as the undisputed architect of the victory, leaving the traditional political opposition watching from the sidelines. Real Quake ​But the real political earthquake is yet to be measured. The government's bruised image sets the stage for its toughest political test yet. A weakened BJP center immediately alters the power dynamics within the NDA. The regional satraps and political allies who prop up the Modi government are watching closely. They have witnessed the ruling party blink, and they have seen that the mighty center can be forced into submission. ​ The immediate future of this administration now hinges completely on how these allies interpret this vulnerability. Will they demand larger portfolios? Will they force policy rollbacks of their own? The script for the next act of this high-stakes political play will not be written by the opposition, nor by the activists on the streets. It will be authored by the NDA allies who sit inside the government. For the Modi administration, the real crisis has only just begun. Prahlad Joshi appointed as Education Minister Union Minister Prahlad Joshi has been appointed as Education Minister following Dharmendra Pradhan's resignation from the post on Saturday. Joshi has been given additional charge of the Education Ministry besides his role as Consumer Affairs Minister. A Rashtrapati Bhavan communique said the President, as advised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has accepted the resignation of Pradhan with immediate effect. It said that on the advice of the Prime Minister, the President has directed that Joshi, Cabinet Minister, be assigned the charge of the Ministry of Education, in addition to his own duties. Earlier in the day, Pradhan resigned from his post following the Cockroach Janta Party-led student protests across the country, demanding his ouster over the NEET paper leak controversy. Pradhan said it is not a matter of "individual prestige" for him and he is disturbed to see the series of events that have unfolded in the last 10 days.

Systemic Stonewalling

The Supreme Court of India was compelled to do what Maharashtra’s government ought to have, but has not done so far. The Apex Court has directed the Maharashtra Director General of Police (DGP) to constitute a Special Investigation Team (SIT) to probe the alleged custodial killing of 23-year-old Akshay Shinde. Shinde, the prime accused in the sexual assault of two kindergarten girls in Badlapur, later died in mysterious circumstances, believed to be killed in a police encounter last September. The apex court's intervention came only after the Bombay High Court uncovered glaring inconsistencies in the official account and a disturbing reluctance by the state to even file an FIR.


That such a basic demand for an independent investigation had to climb the judicial ladder speaks volumes about the rot in Maharashtra’s policing and politics. The state had appealed the High Court’s earlier directive to appoint an SIT under the supervision of a named officer, arguing instead that the DGP should have the prerogative.


The answer lies in who gets to pick the investigators. The court ultimately let the DGP select the SIT members, giving the state what it wanted but exposing its true priority: control over the process. The Mahayuti coalition government with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who is also Home Minister, has shown a consistent pattern of setting up SITs that appear to act, but achieve nothing.


Since 2022, over 20 SITs have been formed under Fadnavis’s tenure. Not one has delivered anything of substance. They are a bureaucratic performance dressed up as justice.


The facts around Shinde’s death suggest that vigilance is sorely needed. Police claim he snatched a revolver and fired at officers before being killed in ‘retaliatory firing.’ But a magisterial inquiry and forensic evidence have raised serious doubts. The High Court found the official narrative suspicious and CID’s refusal to file an FIR unacceptable. Shinde’s parents, initially willing to pursue justice, have since expressed reluctance which speaks either of intimidation or exhaustion.


The backdrop to this is even more sordid. Shinde was at the centre of a scandal that touched not only him but also the management of the school where the abuse took place. The initial police response was sluggish, if not actively obstructive, until public protests forced the authorities to act. When the case began to implicate more than just a lone suspect, the most explosive witness conveniently died. That the government then balked at an independent SIT only deepens suspicions.


The eagerness of the Fadnavis-led government to control the terms of investigation, rather than enable transparency, belies its claims of uprightness. Whether the SIT walks through it, or quietly tiptoes around uncomfortable truths will depend not just on who serves on it but whether anyone has the courage to stand up to the system. It is not a good sign for democracy when the Supreme Court must parent a government that seemingly fears the truth.

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