Trouble in the House of Shinawatra

Thailand’s youngest prime minister stumbles as scandal, street protests and economic woes collide.

Thailand’s youngest and second-ever female prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, has found herself at the heart of a familiar storm: scandal, instability, and whispers of yet another coup. Just a year into her historic premiership, the 38-year-old scion of Thailand’s most polarising political dynasty has been suspended from office following the leak of a phone conversation with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen. The conversation, reportedly centred around a long-simmering border dispute, was explosive not for what was said but how it was said.

In the leaked clip, Paetongtarn appears to take a conciliatory tone on the cross-border tensions, which flared into deadly clashes in May, leaving at least one Cambodian soldier dead. That she referred to Hun Sen as “uncle” and called a senior Thai military commander her “opponent” only added fuel to the fire. Critics have accused her of betraying national interests; protesters have taken to the streets of Bangkok in droves. Her coalition, once touted as a phoenix-like return of the Shinawatra machine, has begun to crack. The defection of Deputy Prime Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit, now acting as interim leader, is a blow that may prove fatal.

Few families have loomed as large over a democracy as the Shinawatras have over Thailand. The dynasty began with Thaksin, Paetongtarn’s father, a billionaire telecom tycoon who became prime minister in 2001 and governed with populist flair until he was ousted in a military coup in 2006. Since then, the family has remained both omnipresent and embattled. Thaksin’s brother-in-law briefly became prime minister in 2008, followed by his sister Yingluck, who met the same fate as Thaksin: deposed by the military in 2014. In 2023, Paetongtarn led the Pheu Thai party’s election campaign while heavily pregnant, only to fall short at the ballot box. But after the removal of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin by Thailand’s Constitutional Court in August 2024, she was anointed by the ruling coalition as the compromise candidate. Her premiership, ratified in Parliament without contest, marked a generational handover - but one laced with peril.

Paetongtarn, or Ung Ing as she is affectionately known, was groomed for power in the shadows of Thai politics. At eight, she followed her father into foreign ministry corridors. At 20, she sheltered with her family in a safe house during the 2006 coup. Two years later, she watched her father flee into exile. But if these traumas left scars, they also instilled steel. Educated in Thailand and Britain, she worked in the family’s business empire before plunging into politics in 2021.

But the once-iron grip of the Shinawatra clan on rural and working-class voters has slackened. The 2023 general election marked the first time in over two decades that their party failed to dominate. In power, Paetongtarn has struggled to assert herself amid factionalism, elite suspicion, and rising public discontent. Her signature policy - a much-hyped digital wallet scheme to inject stimulus via cash handouts - remains undelivered. Meanwhile, the country’s economic woes have only deepened.

The SET stock index has plunged over 20 percent this year alone. Foreign investment is now fleeing in response to political instability and unresolved trade disputes. A volatile border and diplomatic faux pas with Cambodia will hardly help. Analysts worry that critical negotiations with the United States on tariffs and investment could be derailed. Businesses are in limbo. The public is losing patience.

The political arithmetic is no more encouraging. Paetongtarn’s suspension by the Constitutional Court has triggered a 15-day window during which the court will decide whether to dismiss her permanently. A no-confidence motion looms in Parliament. If it passes, it could precipitate an early election or a cabinet reshuffle that further sidelines the Shinawatras. The military, though officially aloof, is watching. Thailand has seen a dozen successful coups since 1932. In a country where uniforms often trump ballots, the risk of another is never far off.

What makes Paetongtarn’s position especially precarious is not just her youth, or even the dynasty she embodies, but the toxic polarisation of Thai politics. Royalists, old-guard generals, and conservative elites have long viewed the Shinawatras as interlopers, manipulating democracy to serve populist ends. Meanwhile, her supporters see her as the best hope for modernising the country and ending the cycle of coups and court interventions. But neither camp is ascendant today.

As Thailand edges closer to the precipice, Paetongtarn faces a brutal lesson: in Thai politics, it is not enough to inherit a name. One must also survive it.