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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

Trouble in the House of Shinawatra

Thailand’s youngest prime minister stumbles as scandal, street protests and economic woes collide.

Thailand’s youngest and second-ever female prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, has found herself at the heart of a familiar storm: scandal, instability, and whispers of yet another coup. Just a year into her historic premiership, the 38-year-old scion of Thailand’s most polarising political dynasty has been suspended from office following the leak of a phone conversation with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen. The conversation, reportedly centred around a long-simmering border dispute, was explosive not for what was said but how it was said.


In the leaked clip, Paetongtarn appears to take a conciliatory tone on the cross-border tensions, which flared into deadly clashes in May, leaving at least one Cambodian soldier dead. That she referred to Hun Sen as “uncle” and called a senior Thai military commander her “opponent” only added fuel to the fire. Critics have accused her of betraying national interests; protesters have taken to the streets of Bangkok in droves. Her coalition, once touted as a phoenix-like return of the Shinawatra machine, has begun to crack. The defection of Deputy Prime Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit, now acting as interim leader, is a blow that may prove fatal.


Few families have loomed as large over a democracy as the Shinawatras have over Thailand. The dynasty began with Thaksin, Paetongtarn’s father, a billionaire telecom tycoon who became prime minister in 2001 and governed with populist flair until he was ousted in a military coup in 2006. Since then, the family has remained both omnipresent and embattled. Thaksin’s brother-in-law briefly became prime minister in 2008, followed by his sister Yingluck, who met the same fate as Thaksin: deposed by the military in 2014. In 2023, Paetongtarn led the Pheu Thai party’s election campaign while heavily pregnant, only to fall short at the ballot box. But after the removal of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin by Thailand’s Constitutional Court in August 2024, she was anointed by the ruling coalition as the compromise candidate. Her premiership, ratified in Parliament without contest, marked a generational handover - but one laced with peril.


Paetongtarn, or Ung Ing as she is affectionately known, was groomed for power in the shadows of Thai politics. At eight, she followed her father into foreign ministry corridors. At 20, she sheltered with her family in a safe house during the 2006 coup. Two years later, she watched her father flee into exile. But if these traumas left scars, they also instilled steel. Educated in Thailand and Britain, she worked in the family’s business empire before plunging into politics in 2021.


But the once-iron grip of the Shinawatra clan on rural and working-class voters has slackened. The 2023 general election marked the first time in over two decades that their party failed to dominate. In power, Paetongtarn has struggled to assert herself amid factionalism, elite suspicion, and rising public discontent. Her signature policy - a much-hyped digital wallet scheme to inject stimulus via cash handouts - remains undelivered. Meanwhile, the country’s economic woes have only deepened.


The SET stock index has plunged over 20 percent this year alone. Foreign investment is now fleeing in response to political instability and unresolved trade disputes. A volatile border and diplomatic faux pas with Cambodia will hardly help. Analysts worry that critical negotiations with the United States on tariffs and investment could be derailed. Businesses are in limbo. The public is losing patience.


The political arithmetic is no more encouraging. Paetongtarn’s suspension by the Constitutional Court has triggered a 15-day window during which the court will decide whether to dismiss her permanently. A no-confidence motion looms in Parliament. If it passes, it could precipitate an early election or a cabinet reshuffle that further sidelines the Shinawatras. The military, though officially aloof, is watching. Thailand has seen a dozen successful coups since 1932. In a country where uniforms often trump ballots, the risk of another is never far off.


What makes Paetongtarn’s position especially precarious is not just her youth, or even the dynasty she embodies, but the toxic polarisation of Thai politics. Royalists, old-guard generals, and conservative elites have long viewed the Shinawatras as interlopers, manipulating democracy to serve populist ends. Meanwhile, her supporters see her as the best hope for modernising the country and ending the cycle of coups and court interventions. But neither camp is ascendant today.


As Thailand edges closer to the precipice, Paetongtarn faces a brutal lesson: in Thai politics, it is not enough to inherit a name. One must also survive it.

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