Donald Trump’s return to the White House is arguably the most incredible political comeback in the annals of U.S. Presidential and political history. His victory not only secures the Republicans’ control of the Senate but also demonstrates his resilience. Defying attempts by the so-called ‘liberal media’ to bury him, surmounting impeachment attempts, legal battles, criminal charges, and dodging death itself - as he narrowly escaped an assassination attempt in July this year - Trump stormed back to office with his inimitable chutzpah.
He made history in becoming only the second U.S. President to win a non-consecutive election. Grover Cleveland did this more than a century ago with his wins in 1885 and 1893. Trump’s triumph in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, as well as his lead in Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan, signalled a formidable comeback, defying opinion polls which predicted a close contest between him and Kamala Harris.
In his Florida victory address, he signalled a continuation of his ‘America First’ approach with a mention of “closing the borders.” The question is what does it all translate for India?
From visas to defence and economic cooperation, Trump’s presidency will be significantly impacting the subcontinent. PM Narendra Modi, in his congratulatory post on X, alluded to Trump as his “friend,” hinting at the start of an era of cordial, pragmatic diplomacy that aligns with India’s strategic goals.
Immigration is the key area where Trump’s policies will influence India directly. Known for his firm and stringent stance on immigration, Trump’s previous administration had advocated a merit-based approach, particularly affecting the H-1B visa program. While this policy meant stricter visa criteria, it also underscored the value of highly skilled professionals - many of whom hail from India.
This ‘quality over quantity’ approach could enhance the reputation of Indian talent in the U.S., favouring the most qualified and highly-paid professionals. For India’s educated elite and STEM graduates, Trump’s selective approach may improve access to career opportunities in the U.S., particularly in sectors where talent shortages remain a concern.
However, Trump’s immigration policy also carries potential downsides. While it may benefit highly skilled professionals, Indian students pursuing liberal arts and humanities could face limited opportunities. Nonetheless, Trump’s meritocratic focus could enhance the appeal of Indian talent in critical fields, thereby consolidating the Indian-American community’s influence - a group that is making a string impression while becoming increasingly vocal in U.S. political circles.
Under Trump’s prior administration, U.S.-India trade relations had taken a rocky turn. The former President’s stringent approach on tariffs saw duties rise on 14% of Indian exports to the U.S., covering critical sectors. In retaliation, India raised tariffs on about 6% of U.S. exports to India, notably impacting California’s almond industry. The tariff escalation started in 2018, when Trump imposed duties on Indian steel and aluminium, citing national security concerns. The result: Indian steel exports to the U.S. plummeted by nearly half, even though they had already been limited due to earlier anti-dumping measures. India, as the world’s third-largest steel producer, had faced formidable setbacks in the U.S. market.
In contrast to the trade tensions during the Biden administration, a return of Trump’s tariffs might spur New Delhi to seek bilateral trade negotiations directly with Washington rather than through multilateral forums like the World Trade Organization. Although Trump’s hard-line stance on trade is unlikely to waver, Modi’s administration may find avenues to capitalize on the U.S. pivot away from Chinese manufacturing. The Indian government has courted global companies seeking to diversify their supply chains out of China, and Trump’s distaste for reliance on Beijing might accelerate this trend. For Indian sectors like pharmaceuticals, technology, and textiles, the potential for expanded market access could mitigate the sting of Trump’s trade protectionism.
Defence had fared considerably better. During his first term, Trump had laid the groundwork for a robust U.S.-India defence relationship. Agreements such as the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) paved the way for intelligence and technology sharing.
The Modi government sees opportunity in Trump’s intent to expand defence ties, likely facilitating joint military exercises, high-tech arms sales, and intelligence-sharing to reinforce regional stability. For Modi, Trump’s transactional approach could mean enhanced access to cutting-edge U.S. technology, a key asset in fortifying India’s standing as a regional power.
His administration saw India as a crucial counterweight to China, culminating in high-profile arms deals that provided India with advanced military equipment like Apache and Chinook helicopters. With his return, Trump is expected to intensify defence cooperation, strengthening India’s stance in the Quad - a strategic alliance involving the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia that aims to counterbalance China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. For India, closer ties with Washington represent an essential buffer against Chinese assertiveness, especially in areas like the South China Sea and along its own borders.
Additionally, the Trump administration’s focus on Indo-Pacific security may result in deeper military collaborations, intelligence-sharing initiatives, and advanced technology transfers. Under Trump, the U.S. pushed for India’s role in regional security, and a second term would likely bolster this partnership through more joint military exercises and strategic dialogues. Modi’s government will look to leverage Trump’s stance on China to solidify India’s position as a regional power, especially as it contends with Beijing’s infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative.
Both Trump and Modi share a nationalist vision that has translated into a warm relationship. Trump’s return could revive the personal diplomacy between the two leaders, as evidenced in past events like the “Howdy Modi” rally in Houston in 2019. This rapport is particularly valuable to Modi’s administration, which appreciates Trump’s transactional, results-driven approach to foreign policy. Unlike the ideological undertones that coloured the Biden administration’s foreign policy, Trump’s pragmatism offers India a freer hand in pursuing its domestic agenda. Issues like Kashmir, which drew criticism from Western nations, may face less scrutiny under Trump, who has often prioritized economic and security partnerships over human rights concerns.
This support for India’s internal policies, particularly in contentious areas like Kashmir, would allow Modi to pursue his domestic initiatives without external pressure (had Harris come to power), especially from Western human rights advocates. With Trump’s focus on immediate benefits over moral alignment, Modi’s government may find it easier to engage with the U.S. on issues that align with India’s strategic interests.
Economically, Trump’s tough stance on China could have ripple effects that benefit India. Modi’s administration has positioned India as a desirable alternative to China for global corporations seeking more diversified supply chains. With Trump’s focus on reducing U.S. dependence on Chinese manufacturing, Indian firms could see new opportunities to expand exports to the U.S., especially in sectors like pharmaceuticals, IT services, and textiles. India’s burgeoning digital economy could also benefit from Trump’s aversion to multilateral trade agreements, as his administration would likely prioritize bilateral deals. This approach suits Modi’s vision of ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ (self-reliant India) and could drive investment flows into India’s manufacturing and tech sectors.
With Trump’s re-election, India stands to benefit from a shift in U.S. global priorities. Trump’s reluctance to engage in protracted foreign entanglements aligns with India’s own independent foreign policy aspirations. India is likely to enjoy greater latitude to shape South Asian security dynamics, especially concerning Pakistan and Afghanistan. In a Trump-Modi world, India’s role as a regional stabilizer could gain momentum.
As the world recalibrates in the wake of Trump’s win, Modi’s India stands well-positioned to advance its strategic interests, fostering an advantageous partnership in the evolving U.S.-India alliance. Donald is here to stay, and India seems the better for it!
Comments