Sri Lanka is on the brink of another defining electoral chapter. Almost two months since the dissolution of the 16th Parliament on September 24 this year, the island nation, still reeling from the shocks of political and economic upheavals, readies itself for parliamentary polls today. This election, however, is more than just a routine exercise. It is a referendum on Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the non-dynastic leader whose ascent defies the tradition of family hegemony in Sri Lankan politics.
The country’s political landscape has long been shaped by dynastic politics, ethnic divisions, and the interplay between populism and patronage. The September presidential election heralded a shift in the country’s political order, with Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) coalition achieving an unexpected triumph. Yet, this victory was tempered by the coalition’s meagre representation—just three seats out of 225 in Parliament. The leader’s decision to dissolve the legislature was a calculated gamble, a bid to secure a majority strong enough to enact his reformist agenda.
Sri Lanka’s electoral structure, though straightforward on paper, is layered with intrigue. It operates under a multi-party system where power is often contested fiercely between two dominant factions. The Election Commission of Sri Lanka oversees the process, striving for a semblance of fairness in an arena where legacy, alliances, and ethnic divisions frequently overshadow policy.
The main players in this contest exemplify Sri Lanka’s political continuum. The Sri Lanka People’s Freedom Alliance (SLPFA), spearheaded by the veteran Mahinda Rajapaksa, seeks to reclaim its former parliamentary dominance established in 2020. Rajapaksa's political brand, rooted in nationalist rhetoric and an enduring populist appeal, has historically resonated with the Sinhalese majority. Yet, his leadership is also indelibly marked by allegations of cronyism and economic mismanagement that contributed to the country’s recent economic crisis.
Sajith Premadasa’s Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), meanwhile, positions itself as the most potent opposition force. Premadasa, son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa, embodies a complex blend of reformist ambitions and dynastic legacy. His campaign has underscored economic revival and social welfare, aiming to capture the discontented middle class and urban voters who have grown weary of political dysfunction.
The NPP, now riding on Dissanayake’s personal appeal, hopes to translate presidential momentum into legislative clout. Dissanayake’s anti-corruption stance and promises of systemic change have found traction among younger and more progressive demographics. However, translating popular support into parliamentary seats remains an uphill battle due to the entrenched networks of patronage that still dominate local politics.
The Tamil National Alliance (TNA), with its historical role as the voice of the Tamil minority, remains a crucial entity, focusing on regional autonomy and minority rights. Their performance will be a litmus test for the ethnic reconciliation efforts that have long been a contentious issue in Sri Lankan politics. Meanwhile, the once-formidable United National Party (UNP) under Ranil Wickremesinghe grapples with preserving relevance in an altered landscape, as the party’s dwindling influence reflects a broader realignment within the traditional political elite.
The nomination window, which ran from October 2 to October 11, saw over 8,800 aspirants enter the fray. On November 12, campaigning officially ended, paving the way for an electorate of nearly 17 million to vote at more than 13,400 polling stations. The stakes are high; at least 113 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority, out of a total 225. The 196 district-based seats are determined through proportional representation, while 29 national list seats are distributed according to each party’s share of the vote.
Security, always a concern in Sri Lanka’s electoral theatre, has been ramped up, with authorities determined to ensure the polls proceed without disruption. The Gampaha district, wielding the largest share of 19 seats, and Trincomalee, with just four, are illustrative of the regional disparities that shape political strategies.
The presidency itself is secured through a system of instant-runoff voting, where voters rank up to three preferences. If no candidate achieves an outright majority in the first round, subsequent preferences are counted to produce a winner. This approach, intended to reflect broader voter will, contrasts with the proportional representation model of Parliament, which fosters coalition-building but also breeds legislative gridlock.
Dissanayake’s path is fraught with uncertainties. A robust mandate would embolden him to pursue reforms aimed at addressing corruption, economic instability, and ethnic reconciliation—long-standing issues that have bedeviled Sri Lanka. Failure to achieve such backing could signal the endurance of entrenched power structures and set the stage for further political fragmentation. The spectra of coalition politics looms large, with potential alliances shifting as rival parties vie for influence in a post-election Parliament.
The backdrop to these elections includes Sri Lanka's struggles with a debt crisis and economic recovery efforts. The International Monetary Fund's conditional financial assistance and the government's attempts at structural reforms have added layers of complexity to the political narrative. Furthermore, regional powers such as India and China, both vested in Sri Lanka’s strategic positioning, are watching closely, with subtle yet significant implications for the island’s foreign policy trajectory.
Sri Lanka’s electoral history offers lessons that resonate with today’s challenges. The 2015 elections marked a momentous shift when Maithripala Sirisena, backed by a coalition of opposition parties, defeated the formidable Rajapaksa, promising democratic reforms and anti-corruption measures. Yet, that momentum waned as Sirisena’s administration grappled with coalition tensions and policy inertia, eventually paving the way for Rajapaksa's return in 2019.
Similarly, the 2001 parliamentary elections, held during a period of economic difficulty and civil strife, saw Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Front secure a narrow victory, only to face significant hurdles in implementing policy due to factionalism and presidential opposition. These episodes underscore the recurring theme in Sri Lankan politics that electoral victories are often precarious and subject to the volatile interplay of coalition-building and power struggles.
In light of these precedents, Dissanayake’s challenge becomes clearer. His leadership will need to confront the entrenched political culture where reformists often face resistance not just from rival parties but from within potential coalitions. The ability to forge alliances and maintain political coherence will be crucial in ensuring that the optimism following the presidential victory translates into tangible progress.
As Sri Lanka prepares to vote, the eyes of the world, from New Delhi to Washington, watch closely. As voters prepare to exercise their franchise, Sri Lanka’s political future hinges on whether Dissanayake can break this pattern. For a nation scarred by economic collapse, political dysfunction, and ethnic strife, the upcoming election is not just about who wins power but about whether Sri Lanka can chart a new and more inclusive course, or remain trapped in the cycles of its past.
The basis of decision making by the voters in Sri Lanka has clearly shifted from the ethnic issues to the steep economic downfall of the country. The economy continues to be the central issue in Sri Lanka’s election. Two years ago, the then President then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa faced massive criticism with even courts blaming him for the economic crisis in the country. He was forced to resign followed by which interim president Ranil Wickremesinghe did his best to control the damage. Experts believe that voters who got fed up with dynasty politics in the country with voters attributing the financial crisis to the corruption allegedly led by these same historical faces that have held the political chairs for decades, saw some hope in Dissanayake who has no prior connection with politics.
(Tomorrow: Impact on the political dynamics of Sri Lanka)
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