Courting Manila

India and the Philippines are discovering common cause in trade, technology and defence.

When Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr., the president of the Philippines, touched down in India for a five-day state visit earlier this month, it was not merely a diplomatic courtesy. The two countries were marking 75 years of diplomatic ties, but the trip felt less like a nostalgia-laden commemoration and more like a forward-looking recalibration. For both countries, caught between the turbulence of Chinese assertiveness and the shifting alignments of the Indo-Pacific, the visit marked a turning point.

Over the years, relations between India and the Philippines have been cordial but underwhelming. Trade remains modest: about $446m annually, a figure dwarfed by Manila’s commerce with China, Japan, or even Vietnam. Yet the agreements signed during Marcos’s trip suggest the makings of a sturdier partnership. Memoranda of understanding on agriculture, micro and small enterprises, digitalisation, and scientific research may sound routine. But combined, they sketch out an agenda that if pursued with discipline could transform a polite friendship into something approaching strategic depth.

The economic promise is real. Indian officials believe that bilateral trade could jump more than tenfold in the coming years, though such projections are often more aspirational than precise. Even so, the complementarities are striking. Manila seeks investment in infrastructure, digital services and clean energy. India has capital, expertise in IT, and, crucially, experience in digital public goods such as the Unified Payments Interface (UPI). In a country where remittances form a lifeline and banking penetration is patchy, India’s digital-finance revolution could prove transformative.

The same applies to renewable energy. The Philippines, an archipelago often battered by typhoons and short of fossil-fuel reserves, is hungry for sustainable alternatives. India’s strides in solar power, wind farms and biofuels give it a chance to help Manila leapfrog into a greener energy future. Cooperation in artificial intelligence, too, holds promise as do a lot of areas - from agricultural optimisation to smart-city planning. That Marcos made a point of visiting Bengaluru, India’s technology hub, was a symbolic acknowledgement of where Manila’s eyes are turning.

Yet it is defence and geopolitics that make this relationship most intriguing. In 2022 the Philippines became the first Southeast Asian country to purchase India’s BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles—a move that startled Beijing and reassured Washington. For Manila, embroiled in near-daily spats with Chinese coastguard vessels in the South China Sea, BrahMos is more than a weapons system; it is insurance against coercion. For India, which has its own fraught border with China, Manila’s embrace is validation of its ambition to be a net security provider in the Indo-Pacific.

That ambition is still tentative. India has traditionally been cautious in projecting military power east of the Malacca Strait. But the logic of convergence is undeniable. As Chinese vessels harass Filipino fishermen in the Spratly Islands, and as American treaty commitments in the region face constant testing, Manila is hedging its bets. Marcos’s use of the phrase “Indo-Pacific” instead of “Asia-Pacific” in his public statements was not mere semantics as it reflects a strategic shift and the recognition that India is now part of Manila’s calculus for security and balance.

Of course, none of this guarantees smooth sailing for the future. Indian diplomacy in Southeast Asia has long suffered from over-promising and under-delivering. Connectivity projects stall, and investment pledges evaporate in bureaucratic tangles. The Philippines, meanwhile, remains wary of entangling alliances. Domestic politics in both countries could slow progress.

Still, the trajectory is notable. People-to-people ties, once thin, are widening. More Indian students are enrolling in Philippine universities, particularly in medicine. Tourism, though still modest, is growing. Cultural exchanges, if nurtured, could provide ballast to the relationship, ensuring it does not rest solely on defence deals and trade targets.

Seventy-five years of diplomatic relations is a respectable milestone, but it is only now that India and the Philippines are beginning to treat each other as serious partners. In a region crowded by competing powers, their partnership will not alter the balance overnight. But it adds a new strand to the tapestry of alignments that keep China’s dominance in check.

In the stormy waters of the South China Sea and the uncertain geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific, New Delhi and Manila have found common cause. Theirs is not yet a grand alliance, but it is something akin to a pragmatic friendship forged by necessity and sustained by opportunity. If nurtured, it may yet turn into one of Asia’s more surprising success stories.

(The writer is a foreign affairs expert. Views are personal.)