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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Food Waste in India’s Hospitality Sector

In my last article, I shared an overview of the wastage of food at the household level. Now, let us move out of the house and look at other sources of food waste by retail consumers. Topmost among the sources are hotels and restaurants. According to the Food Waste Index Report 2021 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), India generates about 68.7 million tons of food waste per year, out of which 11.9 million tons come from the food service sector. This sector includes restaurants, hotels, caterers, canteens, and other establishments that serve food to customers. There are three different modes of food wastage in this sector. Firstly, pre-consumer waste is generated during preparation and storage. Then when the food is served to the customer as per the order, many customers leave some portion of the food in their plates. Many customers prefer to carry packed meals at home or their respective workplaces. However, they may not consume the entire portion of food they have carried. The reasons for food waste in restaurants and hotels are manifold and can be summarised as follows:


  1. Overproduction: Restaurants often prepare various food dishes in excess quantities to avoid running out of stock and to meet the demand of customers. However, they do not consider the average number of customers visiting their restaurants per day. Hence, all the food that is prepared does not get consumed and becomes stale. Such food is discarded in the trash.


  1. Serving portion quantity: Restaurants often serve large portions of food to customers to attract them and satisfy their appetites without even considering their age. People who are in their late 60s and 70s and above do not have such an appetite, but they are served the same portion as given to the youngsters and adults. In general, the said customer may not be able to gulp down the entire food on the plate. I have experienced this many times. For a single person, they serve a portion of food that can be shared by two or three people. So obviously, some food gets left over. The customer may get it packed and take it home, thinking that it will take care of one meal at least. But it rarely happens. Such packed food is kept in the refrigerator and is then discarded the next day.


  1. Customer behaviour: On the contrary, customers often order more food than they can eat or need, either due to a lack of awareness, peer pressure, or impulse buying. They also tend to leave uneaten food on their plates or take away leftovers, but do not consume them later.


  1. Menu variety: Restaurants often offer a wide variety of dishes and cuisines to cater to the different tastes and preferences of customers. However, this also increases the complexity and cost of food preparation and storage, as well as the risk of spoilage and wastage.


  2. Lack of awareness: Both restaurants and customers often lack awareness and knowledge about the causes and consequences of food waste, as well as the best practices and solutions to prevent and reduce it. They also lack incentives and motivation to act against food waste.


More on this next week! Till then, have a good weekend!


(The author is an environmentalist. Views personal.)

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