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By:

Bhalchandra Chorghade

11 August 2025 at 1:54:18 pm

Real estate sentiment steadies ahead of 2026

India’s real estate sector appears to have regained its equilibrium in the final quarter of 2025, with stakeholder sentiment stabilising after a phase of moderation earlier in the year. The 47th edition of the Knight Frank–NAREDCO Real Estate Sentiment Index for Q4 2025 (October–December) indicates that both current and future outlooks remain firmly in the optimistic zone, underpinned by improving macroeconomic visibility, easing inflationary pressures and steady funding conditions. The...

Real estate sentiment steadies ahead of 2026

India’s real estate sector appears to have regained its equilibrium in the final quarter of 2025, with stakeholder sentiment stabilising after a phase of moderation earlier in the year. The 47th edition of the Knight Frank–NAREDCO Real Estate Sentiment Index for Q4 2025 (October–December) indicates that both current and future outlooks remain firmly in the optimistic zone, underpinned by improving macroeconomic visibility, easing inflationary pressures and steady funding conditions. The Current Sentiment Score edged up marginally to 60 in Q4 2025 from 59 in the preceding quarter, while the Future Sentiment Score held steady at 61. Although these readings remain below the peaks witnessed during 2023–24, they reflect a market that has absorbed recent volatility and is now progressing on more stable fundamentals. The stabilisation suggests that stakeholders are tempering expectations while retaining confidence in the sector’s medium-term prospects. A key driver of this optimism is the strengthening domestic macroeconomic environment. Real GDP growth accelerated to 8.2 per cent in Q2 FY 2025–26, a sharp improvement over the 5.6 per cent recorded in the corresponding period last year. High-frequency indicators continue to signal sustained economic momentum, helping offset global uncertainties. According to Shishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director, Knight Frank India, stronger macro visibility, steady funding conditions and disciplined decision-making across stakeholders have collectively reinforced confidence. He noted that calibrated residential supply and robust office leasing activity are providing structural support to the market. Funding availability sentiment also improved during the quarter. Most respondents expect liquidity conditions to remain stable or improve, aided by policy continuity and a sustained focus on asset quality. While lenders and investors continue to adopt a selective approach, capital access across asset classes remains supportive, indicating confidence in the sector’s underlying fundamentals rather than speculative expansion. Regionally, future sentiment strengthened modestly across all zones, with every region remaining in the optimistic zone. The South Zone retained its leadership position with a score of 62, driven by strong office leasing in Bengaluru and Hyderabad and resilient demand in higher-ticket residential segments. The East Zone improved to 62 on the back of steady mid-segment housing demand, while the West Zone also strengthened to 62, supported by stable commercial activity and a calibrated approach to residential development. The North Zone recovered to 59, reflecting stabilising sentiment after earlier softness, aided by steady office traction and ongoing infrastructure momentum. The broad-based regional improvement underscores confidence anchored in urban demand and improving economic conditions. Stakeholder sentiment, however, showed moderate divergence. Institutional stakeholders such as banks, financial institutions and private equity funds recorded a higher Future Sentiment Score of 63, reflecting growing confidence in asset quality and liquidity. Developers, in contrast, maintained a more cautious stance with a score of 58, highlighting a disciplined approach that aligns growth plans closely with demand visibility and funding prudence. This divergence points to a market where capital providers are willing to support growth, while developers remain focused on risk management and execution efficiency. In the residential segment, future sentiment improved in Q4 2025, supported by sustained demand in higher ticket size segments and careful inventory management. Although sales momentum has moderated from earlier peaks, improving financing conditions and controlled supply additions have reinforced confidence. Overall sentiment remains optimistic, characterised by stable demand rather than rapid expansion. The office sector continues to anchor overall market confidence. Leasing expectations remain strong, driven by sustained occupier demand, particularly from Global Capability Centres across major cities. Limited availability of quality Grade A space has encouraged pre-leasing and early commitments, supporting firm rental expectations. Sentiment around new office supply has also improved, indicating expectations of a stronger development pipeline even as near-term availability remains constrained. Parveen Jain, President, NAREDCO, observed that the index reflects confidence strengthening after a period of mild moderation, with residential stability and consistent office leasing forming the backbone of optimism. Taken together, the Q4 2025 findings suggest that India’s real estate sector is entering 2026 on a steadier, more balanced footing, guided by economic clarity, prudent capital deployment and demand-driven strategies across asset classes.

Kenya’s Youth Uprising: A Crisis of Accountability in East Africa

From a local tragedy to a national crisis, Kenya’s stability and East Africa’s geopolitical balance are at risk.

On July 5, 2025, thousands gathered in Kakoth village, Homa Bay, for the funeral of Albert Ojwang, a young teacher and blogger whose death in police custody sparked weeks of nationwide protests. His body, bearing signs of blunt trauma and strangulation, has become a symbol of growing anger among Kenya’s youth, fuelled by police brutality, economic struggles, and political disillusionment.

 

Kenya has a long, troubled history with policing and political dissent. From Moi-era crackdowns to the 2007 post-election violence and the recent #RejectFinanceBill2024 protests, citizens have often taken to the streets demanding justice and reform. The police—frequently accused of extrajudicial killings and excessive force—remain central to these clashes. Ojwang’s death, allegedly from police torture after a social media post critical of a senior official, has reignited these tensions.


The incident also revived memories of the 2024 anti-tax protests, when demonstrators stormed Parliament and at least 19 people were killed. Sparked by a controversial finance bill, that movement marked a new generation’s entry into political activism. Ojwang’s case has now brought the same demographic back to the streets, not just in Nairobi and Homa Bay, but nationwide.


After Ojwang’s death on 8 June, protests broke out in several cities. Demonstrators burnt parts of police stations, clashed with security forces, and held vigils. In Nairobi, police used tear gas and live rounds to disperse crowds. Unrest spread to markets and transport hubs in Kisumu and Eldoret. On 17 June, vendor Boniface Kariuki was shot during a peaceful march and later died, further fuelling public anger.


President William Ruto first called for calm but soon took a tougher stance. His interior secretary’s comments, suggesting police could use lethal force if needed, were condemned by the Kenya Law Society. Unverified reports say about 16 protesters have died since mid-June, with over 400 injured, per Amnesty Kenya. Six people, including three officers, have been charged in Ojwang’s death.


A Test for President

Elected in 2022 on the populist “Hustler Nation” platform, President Ruto vowed to uplift the poor and challenge elites. Critics say his government has strayed from these ideals. Regressive tax proposals, elitist appointments, and corruption scandals have eroded support, especially among the youth who once backed him.


The government’s handling of Ojwang’s death and the subsequent protests may further erode public trust. While legal proceedings against the accused officers have begun, the lack of broader institutional reform has disappointed many. Ruto’s international image—as a reformer and regional statesman—could also take a hit, especially if the violence escalates or the government appears unresponsive.

 

The protests have hit Kenya’s economy, which is already weakened by inflation and debt. In June, the private sector saw its worst performance in a year. Investor confidence is shaky, and tourism—a key industry—is vulnerable to instability.


Kenya’s geopolitical role in East Africa makes these developments crucial. As a key U.S. ally and host of UNEP, Kenya is vital to regional diplomacy and security. Its stability matters not just to neighbours like Uganda and Somalia, but also to Western partners wary of Chinese influence and militant threats.


The US and EU have urged restraint and accountability but have so far avoided openly criticising the Ruto administration. This may change if human rights worsen or the opposition uses the protests for a wider political campaign.

 

Determined Movement

A key feature of the current protests is the lack of visible leadership. Young Kenyans organise via social media, local groups, and spontaneous demos. This makes the movement resilient but unpredictable. Without clear demands or negotiators, the government struggles to co-opt or calm the protesters.


The message is clear: youth demand justice, dignity, and a government that listens. Whether sparked by taxes or torture, their protests reflect deep alienation across urban-rural, ethnic, and class divides.


Albert Ojwang’s death was no isolated incident but the spark for a long-smouldering fire. Kenya now stands at a crossroads between reform and authoritarianism, inclusive governance and public disillusionment. The government’s response in the coming weeks will shape its fate and the country’s democracy.


For the region and international partners, Kenya’s crisis is a reminder that stability must be earned through justice, accountability, and listening. Kenya’s youth ask not for miracles, but for a government that sees, hears, and protects them.

 

(The writer is a foreign affairs expert.)

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