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By:

Akhilesh Sinha

25 June 2025 at 2:53:54 pm

Nadda's strategic meet signals urgency for chemical sector

New Delhi: As war simmers across the volatile landscape of West Asia, whether in the form of a direct confrontation between Israel, United States and Iran, or through Iran's hybrid warfare involving groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, the tremors are no longer confined to the region's borders. They are coursing through the arteries of the global economy. India's chemicals and petrochemicals sector, heavily dependent on this region for critical raw materials, finds itself among the earliest...

Nadda's strategic meet signals urgency for chemical sector

New Delhi: As war simmers across the volatile landscape of West Asia, whether in the form of a direct confrontation between Israel, United States and Iran, or through Iran's hybrid warfare involving groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, the tremors are no longer confined to the region's borders. They are coursing through the arteries of the global economy. India's chemicals and petrochemicals sector, heavily dependent on this region for critical raw materials, finds itself among the earliest and hardest hit by this geopolitical turbulence. It is in this backdrop that the recent meeting convened by Union Minister for Chemicals and Fertilisers J. P. Nadda at Kartavya Bhavan must be seen not as a routine consultation, but as a signal of strategic urgency. India's ambition to scale this sector from its current valuation of $220 billion to $1 trillion by 2040, and further to $1.5 trillion by 2047, will remain aspirational unless the country confronts its structural vulnerabilities with clarity and resolve. India today ranks as the world's sixth-largest producer of chemicals and the third-largest in Asia. The sector contributes 6-7 percent to GDP and underpins a wide spectrum of industries, from agriculture and pharmaceuticals to automobiles, construction, and electronics. It would be no exaggeration to call it the backbone of modern industrial India. Yet, embedded within this strength is a paradox. India's share in the global chemical value chain (GVC) stands at a modest 3.5 percent. A trade deficit of $31 billion in 2023 underscores a deeper issue: while India produces at scale, it remains marginal in high-value segments. This imbalance becomes starkly visible when disruptions in West Asia choke the supply of key feedstocks, shaking the very foundations of domestic industry. Supply Disruption The current crisis has laid this fragility bare. Disruptions in the supply of LNG, LPG, and sulfur have led to production cuts of 30-50 percent in several segments. With nearly 65 percent of sulfur imports sourced from the Middle East, the ripple effects have extended beyond chemicals to fertilisers, plastics, textiles, and other downstream industries. Strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz have witnessed disruptions, pushing shipping costs up by 20-30 percent and adding further strain to cost structures. This is precisely where Nadda's emphasis on supply chain diversification and resilience appears prescient. In today's world, self-reliance cannot mean isolation; it must translate into strategic flexibility. While India imports crude oil from as many as 41 countries, several critical inputs for the chemical industry remain concentrated in a handful of sources, arguably the sector's most significant vulnerability. Opportunity Ahead A recent report by NITI Aayog outlines a pathway to convert this vulnerability into opportunity. It envisions raising India's GVC share to 5-6 percent by 2030 and to 12 percent by 2040. If achieved, the sector could not only reach the $1 trillion mark but also generate over 700,000 jobs. However, this transformation will demand more than policy intent, it will require sustained investment and disciplined execution. The most pressing challenge lies in research and innovation. India currently spends just 0.7 percent of industry revenue on R&D, compared to a global average of 2.3 percent. This gap explains why the country remains largely confined to basic chemicals, even as the world moves toward specialty and high-value products. Bridging this divide is essential if India is to climb the value chain. Equally constraining is the fragmented nature of the industry. Dominated by MSMEs with limited access to capital and technology, the sector struggles to compete globally. Cluster-based development models offer a pragmatic way forward, such as PCPIRs and the proposed chemical parks.

Know Thy Enemy: Why India Cannot Afford to Underestimate Pakistan’s Armed Forces

In the wake of the Pahalgam killings, India’s thirst for retribution must be tempered with a cold-eyed assessment of Pakistan’s growing military prowess.

As geopolitical tensions ratchet across the subcontinent in the wake of the Pahalgam massacre, it is imperative that India maintains a clear and unflinching understanding of Pakistan. For all its internal turmoil and economic fragility, Pakistan has quietly built one of the most formidable military arsenals in the region, complete with nuclear weapons, modern delivery systems, a powerful intelligence apparatus, and an evolving asymmetric warfare doctrine.


Pakistan’s armed forces remain a highly structured and potent organisation, encompassing not just the traditional tri-services (Army, Navy and Air Force) but also a formidable intelligence network, paramilitary units, and nuclear command structures. While Pakistan’s GDP and overall defence budget pale in comparison to India’s, Islamabad has consistently prioritised military modernisation, particularly in domains where asymmetric or technological advantages could offset India’s conventional superiority.


The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) exemplifies this dual approach of maintaining traditional strength while embracing new tools. It operates a versatile fleet of transport aircraft like the Lockheed C-130 Hercules and Gulfstream IV-SPs, in addition to Chinese-made Harbin Y-12s and Brazilian Embraer jets. Its four Il-78MP aerial refuelling tankers, acquired from Ukraine, extend the operational reach of its fighter jets—many of which are co-produced with China under the JF-17 Thunder programme. PAF’s trainer aircraft fleet, ranging from PAC MFI-17 Mushshaks to Hongdu JL-K8s, ensures a continuous pipeline of skilled pilots. The Sherdils aerobatic team, while symbolic, is a signal of both morale and operational readiness.


Modern warfare is increasingly shaped by unmanned systems and surveillance capabilities. Here too, Pakistan has made deep investments. A combination of domestically produced Shahpar UAVs and imported Turkish Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci drones, alongside Chinese Wing Loong IIs, gives the country real-time reconnaissance and precision-strike capabilities. The use of UAVs has proven decisive in recent conflicts across the globe and Pakistan appears to have learnt these lessons well.


Air defence is another domain where Pakistan’s strategic acquisitions stand out. Systems such as the MBDA Spada 2000 and China’s HQ-9B long-range air defence missiles provide a credible umbrella, complicating the calculus of any air incursion. The deployment of Crotale variants and even retrofitted armoured vehicles like the AML HE 60-20 for base security signals a layered, decentralised defence strategy.


But military power in Pakistan cannot be analysed without understanding the centrality of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Often dubbed the state’s ‘fourth service,’ the ISI wields influence well beyond the remit of traditional intelligence agencies. Staffed largely by military officers and headed by a three-star general reporting directly to both the Prime Minister and Chief of Army Staff, the ISI has long been accused by Indian and international agencies of fuelling cross-border terrorism, aiding proxy groups and orchestrating hybrid warfare.


Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal casts a long shadow over any potential escalation. With an estimated 170 warheads and projections suggesting it could rise to 250 by 2025, Pakistan has deliberately pursued both strategic and tactical nuclear capabilities. Its missiles range from short-range battlefield systems to longer-range medium-range ballistic missiles. Crucially, unlike India, Pakistan does not adhere to a ‘No First Use’ policy, keeping the option of pre-emptive nuclear strike on the table. Its Strategic Plans Division (SPD) oversees this arsenal with stringent command-and-control protocols, making it not just a symbolic deterrent but a credible operational threat.


Pakistan’s paramilitary units and maritime agencies complement its traditional forces with flexible roles in law enforcement, counterterrorism, and coastal security. The Pakistan Coast Guards and the Maritime Security Agency, under the operational control of the Army and Navy respectively, perform overlapping tasks from anti-smuggling operations to maritime domain awareness. On land, the Pakistan Rangers and Civil Armed Forces play a dual role in border defence and internal security making them crucial in grey-zone warfare and hybrid operations.


It is tempting for Indian public discourse to dismiss Pakistan’s military might as posturing from a failing state. But despite persistent political instability, Pakistan’s armed forces continue to function as a professional and well-integrated institution with real teeth. Pakistan’s military has cultivated deeper ties with China and Turkey, both willing suppliers of cutting-edge military technology. Meanwhile, it has modernised selectively, emphasising mobility, precision and disruption over brute force.


To paraphrase the ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu, knowing oneself is half the battle. Knowing the enemy, especially one as opaque and versatile as Pakistan’s military-industrial complex, is the other half. India must resist the temptation to respond emotionally to provocations like Pahalgam. A hot-headed response, no matter how righteous, can escalate into a conflict with unpredictable consequences, particularly when nuclear weapons and non-state actors are both in play.


The current political moment demands more than bellicose rhetoric. It requires cold realism, strategic patience, and sustained investment in intelligence, surveillance, cyber capabilities and next-generation warfare. A hundred battles can be won but only by those who refuse to underestimate the enemy.


(The author is a former naval aviation officer and geopolitical analyst. Views personal.)

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