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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

The Angry Young Man of Congress

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

The Angry Young Man of Congress

Maharashtra Pradesh Congress Committee President Nana Patole has hit the headlines yet again. Generally, whenever he is in headlines, he is angry and is mad at someone. The difference this time was that he angered Shiv Sena MP and spokesperson Sanjay Raut so much, so that Raut went mad at Nana asking the Congress leadership to keep Patole away from seat sharing talks.


However, this is not the first time that they both have locked horns. In 2021, the year when Patole was made the MPCC Chief by the party leadership, he had hit headlines by stating that his party shall contest the next elections on its own and shall have a Congress worker as a Chief Minister. Raut, who is also the Executive Editor of his party’s mouthpiece Saamna, had written an editorial saying that Patole was overconfident when he made the statement about the power of the Congress in the state.


Patole is accused of being authoritarian and several leaders in the state Congress have raised complained against him with the party high command over past four years. Yet, he enjoys the confidence of the party high command who haven’t moved him away from the post. Probably the reason for that Patole’s grass root connect and that he had been a staunch Congress loyalist though he spent a few years in the BJP and hit national headlines by speaking against PM Narendra Modi when none dared to do so.


Nana, who belongs to agrarian Kunbi community from Suki village of Sakoli taluka of Bhandara district, had a humble start in the Zilla Parishad in 1990 as a Congress member. After the formation of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) his arch rival within the party, Praful Patel, went away making way for Nana’s ambition to become an MLA. After becoming MLA twice, in 1999 and 2004, Patole’s ambitions grew. However, he realised that he has little space in the state politics since the Congress and the NCP were in alliance and Patel was taking all the shots as far his home district was concerned. He then switched to BJP and got elected to the parliament in 2014. However, there too he realized that he stands little scope and he started criticising the top leadership of the party before quitting it in 2017.


Though he couldn’t keep his home turf in the bypolls, he won the assembly elections. He was made the Speaker of the assembly in 2019. He distasted the position and resigned from the post to join active politics in 2021, since when he is the MPCC president.


Under Patole’s leadership the party’s performance has been the best compared to past decade, and probably that is the reason why he appears to be the most favoured by the party high command. Even though differences with the Shiv Sena (UBT) over seat sharing are settled as of now, he is unlikely to dilute his stand and let anyone get bigger share of seats in Vidarbha, which is his best bet as of now.

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