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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Mahayuti struggles with seat-sharing formula

Mumbai: The ruling Mahayuti alliance is currently navigating a treacherous political minefield. With the crucial Legislative Council elections rapidly approaching, deep-seated differences over seat-sharing have surfaced. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Monday offered a candid admission of these unresolved disputes. His statements underscore the immense pressure on the coalition partners. The state is preparing to vote for sixteen council seats and one bypoll seat in Nagpur. Voting is...

Mahayuti struggles with seat-sharing formula

Mumbai: The ruling Mahayuti alliance is currently navigating a treacherous political minefield. With the crucial Legislative Council elections rapidly approaching, deep-seated differences over seat-sharing have surfaced. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Monday offered a candid admission of these unresolved disputes. His statements underscore the immense pressure on the coalition partners. The state is preparing to vote for sixteen council seats and one bypoll seat in Nagpur. Voting is scheduled for June 18, with the all-important counting set for June 22. Addressing the media after inaugurating the Jawahar Balbhavan in Mumbai, Fadnavis sought to project a calm exterior. He emphasised that detailed discussions are still ongoing to evaluate various aspects of the electoral battle. He expressed confidence that the alliance would soon reach an amicable solution. However, the specific geographies he mentioned reveal the exact fault lines. Negotiations with the Shiv Sena are heavily concentrated on Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar and Nashik. Meanwhile, talks with the Nationalist Congress Party are focused squarely on Pune. Alliance Arithmatic The arithmetic of the alliance is proving incredibly difficult to balance. The Shiv Sena had firmly demanded seven seats even as the BJP was offering only 3. They justify this claim by pointing to their strong support bases in Mumbai, Thane, Raigad, Sambhajinagar, Ratnagiri, Nashik, and Yavatmal. The Bharatiya Janata Party has a vastly different calculation. The BJP plans to assert its dominance by contesting twelve seats. This aggressive stance would leave only three seats for the Sena and a mere two seats for the Sunetra Pawar-led NCP. With the nomination process already underway, the clock is ticking loudly for the Mahayuti leadership. This intense internal friction prompted a sudden political maneuver by Deputy Chief Minister and Shiv Sena chief Eknath Shinde. He flew to New Delhi over the weekend amid the escalating deadlock. Sena sources indicated that Shinde sought the intervention of the BJP’s central leadership. A Sena minister, however, quickly tried to downplay the optics of the trip. He insisted that Shinde travelled for an unscheduled programme before heading to Bengaluru for a planned event. Despite these official denials, the timing strongly suggests a high-stakes crisis intervention. Bitter Conflict The most bitter conflict within the alliance centers on the Thane local authorities constituency. Both the BJP and the Shinde-led Sena are fiercely staking their claims. A BJP legislator recently argued that political tickets should be distributed based strictly on numerical strength. He pointed out that the BJP commands 444 corporators in the region. In stark contrast, the Shinde-led Sena and the allied Jijau organisation possess a combined total of only 346 corporators. However, political reality in Maharashtra is rarely dictated by numbers alone. The Shinde faction views Thane as its emotional and traditional stronghold. Surrendering this territory to their alliance partner is considered politically unthinkable. This local dispute is already threatening to severely damage the broader coalition. A Sena Member of Parliament recently issued a stark warning regarding the upcoming Thane Zilla Parishad elections. He boldly asserted that Sena workers are fully prepared to fight alone and hoist their saffron flag, regardless of the alliance’s survival. The battle lines are extending further across the state map. The Sena is demanding the Jalgaon seat, which the BJP is equally determined to contest. Furthermore, reports suggest the Sena is preparing to unilaterally field a candidate in Raigad. This would further complicate the already delicate negotiations. Despite these mounting tensions, BJP minister Girish Mahajan has publicly maintained that the deadlock will be resolved shortly. A final decision now rests on an impending high-level meeting between Fadnavis, Shinde, and Sunetra Pawar. MVA Crisis Meanwhile, the political turbulence is not restricted to the Mahayuti alliance. The opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi is dealing with its own severe crisis in the Vidarbha region. The Chandrapur-Gadchiroli council seat has triggered frantic political poaching. As many as sixty corporators and Zilla Parishad members from the Congress party reportedly went missing recently. Congress leaders have directly accused BJP legislator Banti Bhangadiya of orchestrating this disappearance. They allege he has shifted the corporators to an undisclosed location to manipulate the voting outcome. The Congress has responded with an aggressive counter-narrative. Senior Congress leader Vijay Wadettiwar made a startling claim that over one hundred BJP corporators are secretly in contact with him. While Wadettiwar strategically hid their exact whereabouts, his statement highlighted a critical vulnerability. He suggested that the BJP is also suffering from severe internal factionalism. Wadettiwar warned that these hidden rifts will ultimately cost the ruling party dearly in the forthcoming elections.

Tuber Tussle

Few commodities evoke as much attention as the humble potato, especially when its supply is throttled. For the better part of this year, the Trinamool Congress-ruled West Bengal led by its temperamental Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has engaged in an unseemly spat with neighbouring BJP-led Odisha over the tuber, highlighting both the perils of political brinkmanship and the economic ripple effects of disrupted trade.


At the heart of the dispute lies West Bengal’s sudden decision to halt the movement of potato-laden trucks across its border into Odisha. This blockade has strained the supply chain, pushing potato prices in Odisha’s markets to as high as Rs. 50 per kilogram, a steep jump from Rs. 35 just days ago. This has caused Odisha’s Food Supplies and Consumer Welfare Minister to accuse West Bengal of playing politics.


Odisha’s response has been pragmatic, albeit costly. It swiftly turned to Uttar Pradesh and Punjab for alternative supplies, with truckloads of potatoes now arriving daily. This pivot comes with an added price tag of an extra Rs. 2 per kilogram for consumers. Yet, it underscores Odisha’s determination to avoid escalating the row into a tit-for-tat embargo, which could disrupt the delicate interdependence of state economies.


Officially, there is no explicit rationale for West Bengal’s blockade, though whispers of internal politics and protectionism abound. West Bengal’s own potato farmers face a flood of cheaper Bhutanese imports, and the state’s agricultural output has been hit by unseasonal rains. Odisha’s reliance on West Bengal for its spuds, historically grounded in shorter transport distances, has now become a liability.


Meanwhile, the trade embargo has laid bare the broader fragilities in India’s domestic supply chains. Despite frequent calls for economic federalism, states often act parochially when it comes to essential commodities. The disruptions have also exposed inefficiencies in logistics as transporting potatoes from Uttar Pradesh risks spoilage due to the longer journey.


The episode offers lessons for all stakeholders. Odisha’s plans to achieve self-sufficiency in potato production within two years are ambitious but overdue. The state’s dependency on West Bengal was a predictable risk, yet little was done to mitigate it. West Bengal, for its part, risks tarnishing its reputation as a trade partner, a move that could backfire should other states adopt retaliatory measures.


The broader question is whether India can afford such provincial spats over a staple crop. With climate change making agricultural yields increasingly unpredictable, states need to cooperate rather than compete. Disputes like these not only hurt consumers but also highlight the need for stronger national mechanisms to mediate trade disputes and ensure the free flow of essential goods.


For now, Odisha’s markets are stabilizing with fresh shipments from Uttar Pradesh, though prices remain volatile. But the damage - both economic and political - is done. Until cooler heads prevail, the humble potato will remain an unlikely symbol of inter-state discord.

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