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By:

Akhilesh Sinha

25 June 2025 at 2:53:54 pm

Oil crisis: India's resilience on edge

Workers load LPG cylinders in a truck, in Chikkamagaluru, Karnataka on Tuesday. | Pic: PTI New Delhi: The Israel–US–Iran war's oil shock, with prices at $116/barrel, Hormuz blockade, and recession fears, threatens global depression per Wood Mackenzie and IMF warnings. India buffers via 8-week reserves, Russian imports, and steady fuel prices, prioritising diplomacy and "Nation First" amid opposition clamour and geopolitical shadows from China–Russia manoeuvres. The escalating Israel–US–Iran...

Oil crisis: India's resilience on edge

Workers load LPG cylinders in a truck, in Chikkamagaluru, Karnataka on Tuesday. | Pic: PTI New Delhi: The Israel–US–Iran war's oil shock, with prices at $116/barrel, Hormuz blockade, and recession fears, threatens global depression per Wood Mackenzie and IMF warnings. India buffers via 8-week reserves, Russian imports, and steady fuel prices, prioritising diplomacy and "Nation First" amid opposition clamour and geopolitical shadows from China–Russia manoeuvres. The escalating Israel–US–Iran conflict has triggered a global oil crisis that now threatens to plunge the world into recessionary depths. On the tenth day of the war, the International Monetary Fund has urged policymakers worldwide to brace for the fallout, evoking fears of a supply shock dwarfing the 1970s oil embargo. The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has stranded around 200 oil tankers at sea, including 37 Indian vessels, crippling a route that carries 22% of global oil shipments. India sources nearly 50% of its crude oil and LNG through this vital passage, heightening risks to its energy security. Crude prices have skyrocketed to $116 per barrel by day ten, a 60% leap from $72–73 on February 28, when markets were sliding. Attacks on energy infrastructure have exacerbated the chaos: Iran deployed drones against oil and gas facilities, refineries, and storage in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, and Iraq, targeting major refineries in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, which are key global export hubs. Israel retaliated by striking Iranian oil depots. Anticipating the growing dangers of war, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have reduced production in certain oil fields. Recession Warnings Mount Amid soaring oil prices, Scotland-based Wood Mackenzie has warned of a global recession stemming from this war. Its report asserts that if the conflict persists for 15 days, the world economy could slide into a great depression, driven primarily by an oil crisis eclipsing the 1970s shock, and echoes of 1929 haunt the markets. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that if oil prices rise by around 10% throughout the year and hold steady, global inflation could climb by about 0.4%. She added that world output might decline by 0.1 to 0.2% as a result. Rising oil and gas prices tend to have the most profound impact on the global economy. Price Pressures Fuel prices have spiked globally: 14% in the US, 6% in Britain, 15% in Australia, 10% in South Korea and China, 20% in Pakistan (petrol at 321 PKR per litre), 22% in the Maldives, and 15% in Sri Lanka, but have increased only by Rs 60 for domestic Indian consumers. If crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel for an extended period, petrol and diesel prices in the country could rise by 5–6 rupees per litre. Higher oil costs will inflate freight charges for goods, directly impacting everything from food prices to industrial output. Geopolitical Shadows Energy experts foresee prices hitting $150–200 per barrel if the war drags on, amplifying inflation and economic strain. India's Finance Ministry voiced concerns in its monthly review meeting but highlighted ample forex reserves as a buffer. Unanswered questions loom: how long can Iran sustain the fight? Will Gulf states stay neutral? Are Russia and China seeking to prolong this war through indirect support? China has deployed its spy warship to the Arabian Sea, positioning it perilously close to the conflict zone. Beijing remains continuously linked to Iran through its rail–road corridor. India's prudent stockpiling and non-aligned stance, echoing its Ukraine playbook of pushing peace over partisanship, position it as a beacon of stability. While the world teeters, New Delhi is focused on energy security and citizen welfare.

The angry Sainiks

angry Sainiks

When Eknath Shinde split the Shiv Sena in 2022, Ramdas Kadam was one of the most vocal leaders who went with him and even accused Uddhav Thackeray of not valuing the old-timers in the party. In a letter to Thackeray, he had written that while Bal Thackeray had appreciated his work and appointed him as a leader of the party, Uddhav did not follow the same norm and senior party leaders were never taken into confidence. He had even alleged that he and his son Yogesh, an MLA from Dapoli, had been “insulted several times” in the party. Ramdas Kadam is a typical Shiv Sainik, rough and fiery, always gunning for a fight.


He rose within the party in the eighties and nineties when the Shiv Sena was making its mark as a party for the ‘Marathi manoos’, fighting for the rights of the locals. Kadam began his career from Kandivali, a Mumbai suburb, and rose within the party ranks to become a shakha pramukh. In 1990, he was selected to contest the assembly elections from Khed, in Ratnagiri district from where he won. During the Shiv Sena-BJP government’s tenure from 1995 to 1999, Kadam was made minister of state for home and food and civil supplies, underlining his importance within the party. He won the elections for three subsequent terms until 2004. When Narayan Rane, a senior leader from Konkan, quit the Shiv Sena in 2005, Kadam was appointed leader of the opposition in the state legislative assembly during which he played a key role in keeping a check on the government. In 2009, he was defeated by Bhaskar Jadhav but was elected to the legislative council, ensuring his continuity in the legislature. In 2014, when the BJP-Shiv Sena formed the government, Kadam was appointed as the minister for environment and one of the biggest policy decisions he made was to implement a ban on plastic. The ban was subsequently watered down. In 2019, he bowed out of the electoral race, instead, ensuring a nomination from his son Yogesh who successfully contested from Dapoli.


His other son Siddhesh was appointed as the chairman of the Maharashtra Pollution Control Board in March this year, sparking allegations of favouritism to pacify Kadam who is apparently miffed with his party. While the position mandates a senior professional with more than two decades of experience, Siddhesh, although a post graduate in Science, was not seen to be eligible for the high position. Yogesh is contesting the state assembly poll from Dapoli for a second term.

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