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By:

Quaid Najmi

4 January 2025 at 3:26:24 pm

Neutral IOD ‘battles’ a strong El Nino

Commuters navigate a waterlogged road after heavy rainfall at Vasai-Virar on Wednesday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: Belying gloomy forecasts of a potentially devastating monsoon 2026 season, a ‘neutral’ Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – an ocean-atmosphere phenomena – may have helped soften the impact of a brutal El Nino over the sub-continent. As reported by ‘The Perfect Voice’ (May 31), a ‘very strong’ El Nino threatened to overshadow the rainy season with erratic rains, uneven spread, heat waves, farm...

Neutral IOD ‘battles’ a strong El Nino

Commuters navigate a waterlogged road after heavy rainfall at Vasai-Virar on Wednesday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: Belying gloomy forecasts of a potentially devastating monsoon 2026 season, a ‘neutral’ Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – an ocean-atmosphere phenomena – may have helped soften the impact of a brutal El Nino over the sub-continent. As reported by ‘The Perfect Voice’ (May 31), a ‘very strong’ El Nino threatened to overshadow the rainy season with erratic rains, uneven spread, heat waves, farm distress and fresh inflationary pressures on the economy, but was likely to be neutralized by the IOD. Considering the recent 10-days of torrential downpour in large parts of western and southern India, experts are optimistic that the IOD may help salvage this year’s monsoon, as it did in the past. The forecasts of a neutral IOD in May-June have proved true and meteorologists are hopeful that it may even turn positive as the season progresses and the rains cover the entire country in July. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said today: “Conditions are favourable for the further advance of Southwest Monsoon into the remaining parts of the north Arabian Sea, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and the rest of the country in the next 2-3 days.” Forecast models indicated a ‘strong to very strong’ El Nino by the year-end, and earlier even the IMD had placed India dangerously close to ‘deficient rainfall’ category this year. The current spell of heavy rains has brought smiles with water bodies filling up quickly in Maharashtra. Even the worried Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) announced a 41+ pc water storage today – lighting up Mumbaikars, though apprehensions persist over the rest of the season. Active Phase However, the waxing and waning of the monsoon rainfall is a normal process and the monsoon is currently in the ‘active phase’ due to multiple weather systems, according to climatologist Kartiki Negi, Lead, Climate Impact at Climate Trends. “Monsoon 2026 began under the threat of a strong El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean, but we must not forget the impact of climate change that has altered the character of the monsoon forever,” Negi told ‘The Perfect Voice’. The Pacific Ocean rapidly warmed toward El Niño conditions after a rare year of climatic transition. India began the year under weak La Nina conditions, shifted into ENSO-neutral conditions, and is now moving into El Nino territory in the second half of 2026 - itself a rare sequence in a single calendar year, experts said. Explaining the scenario this year, Negi said: “During the ‘active phases’ of monsoon, we will see high-intensity events in shorter duration. El Niño is also known for temporarily enhancing global temperatures. The number of rainy days will be less but spells of extremely heavy rains cannot be ruled out”. Incidentally, in the past 75 years, the world has seen only four ‘Super El Ninos’ - in 1982, 1991, 1997 and 2015 seasons. What is El Niño A battle between the weather conditions of the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean often decides the monsoon rain quota for India – whether there will be abundant rainfall or drought conditions – directly hitting agriculture, economy and the people. The culprit is El Nino, which develops when the eastern Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm, the heated air alters the global wind patterns, weakening the moisture-laden monsoon winds headed towards India – with potentially disastrous consequences. Its opposite phase is La Nina, which cools the Pacific Ocean, boosts Indian monsoon and results in widespread and intense rainfall. However, there is a buffer close by – the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – which can help balance the conditions in the western Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia. In a positive IOD, warmer waters near Africa and cooler waters near Indonesia generate stronger rain-bearing winds towards India and help offset the negative effects of El Nino – as in 2019, when India escaped a drought. But during a negative IOD, the rainfall moves towards Indonesia, and when it happens during an El Nino year, India can face a huge risk of severe drought. This year, the IOD is in a neutral phase currently, and experts are hopeful it may turn positive over the coming months, thus sparing India of the spectre of a major drought, despite the El Nino. As an expert said: “Even a slight change in sea surface temperature thousands of kms away can affect the rice on our plates…”

The Soul of Bharat on the Big Screen

Mumbai: April 4, 2025, my heart feels heavier than it ever has. The news hit me like a monsoon storm—Manoj Kumar, the towering legend of Bollywood, the man who painted patriotism across our screens, is no more. At 87, he slipped away at Mumbai’s Kokilaben Dhirubhai Ambani Hospital, leaving behind a reel of memories that flicker in my mind like a projector that won’t stop spinning. As a movie fan who grew up with his films, I’m not just mourning an actor—I’m grieving the loss of a piece of my soul, a piece of India itself. They called him "Bharat Kumar," and oh, how he earned that name.


I remember the first time I saw ‘Upkar’ (1967). I was a kid, sprawled on the living room floor, eyes glued to our old TV. Manoj ji played Bharat, the farmer who gave everything—his dreams, his love—for his country’s soil. That song, “Mere Desh Ki Dharti,” wasn’t just a tune; it was a heartbeat, pulsing with pride and sacrifice. I’d hum it walking to school, feeling like I, too, could be that noble, that selfless. He won a National Film Award for that one, and rightly so—it wasn’t acting; it was living.

Then there was ‘Shaheed’ (1965), where he brought Bhagat Singh back to life. I’d sit there, popcorn forgotten, as he roared defiance against the British, his eyes blazing with a fire that could’ve lit up the darkest colonial night. It wasn’t just a film—it was a revolution on celluloid, a call to remember the blood that bought our freedom. Manoj ji didn’t just play the martyr; he became him, and every time I watch it, I feel that lump in my throat, that sting in my eyes. It’s no wonder it snagged three National Awards—his passion was a gift to us all.


Oh, and ‘Purab Aur Paschim’ (1970)—how do I even begin? He directed and starred as Bharat again, this time wrestling with the clash of East and West, showing us the beauty of our roots while the world tried to pull us away. I’d laugh at Saira Banu’s antics, then choke up when Manoj ji stood tall, singing “Hai Preet Jahan Ki Reet Sada.” It was a blockbuster, sure, but it was more—it was a love letter to India, penned in his signature hand-over-face style. That move, mocked by some, was his shield, his quiet strength, and I adored it.

And who could forget ‘Roti Kapda Aur Makaan’ (1974)? He directed and starred as Bharat—again, because who else could?—tackling poverty, injustice, and the gut-wrenching struggle for the basics of life. I’d watch, fists clenched, as he fought for the everyman, his voice cracking with raw emotion. It wasn’t just a movie; it was a mirror to our society, a cry for change. Seven Filmfare Awards across his career, they say, but this one felt like it carried them all—his heart bled through every frame.


Then there’s ‘Kranti’ (1981), the epic that had me on the edge of my seat. Manoj ji as the freedom fighter, leading Dilip Kumar and Hema Malini through a storm of rebellion—it was grand, it was gritty, it was everything Bollywood could be. “Zindagi Ki Na Toote Ladi” still echoes in my ears, a reminder of the battles he fought on screen, battles that felt so real I’d dream of joining the fight. He didn’t just direct that film; he sculpted a monument to resilience, and I’d cheer like a fool every time he outsmarted the British.


As I sit here, flipping through these memories, I can’t help but feel cheated. Manoj Kumar wasn’t just an actor or director—he was family. Born Harikrishan Goswami in 1937, he carried the Partition’s scars from Abbottabad to Delhi, turning pain into purpose. He gave us over 50 films in a career spanning four decades, snagging the Padma Shri in 1992 and the Dadasaheb Phalke Award in 2015—honors that felt too small for a man who gave India its cinematic soul. His last role in ‘Jai Hind’ (1999) might’ve flopped, but it didn’t dim his light in my eyes.


I’d read how he met Bhagat Singh’s mother before ‘Shaheed’, seeking her blessing—can you imagine the weight of that? Or how PM Lal Bahadur Shastri urged him to make ‘Upkar’ after the 1965 war, handing him “Jai Jawan Jai Kisan” like a sacred torch? That’s who he was—a man who didn’t just entertain but carried a nation’s dreams.


Manoj ji, you weren’t just “Bharat Kumar” to me—you were the uncle who taught me pride, the friend who shared my anger, the poet who sang my hopes. Your films weren’t movies; they were my childhood, my rebellion, my tears. I’ll miss you like I miss the India you dreamed of—flawed, fierce, and forever ours. Rest in peace, sir. Om Shanti.

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