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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Kashmir Reframed: Through Bollywood’s Lens

Kashmir’s cinematic journey, from Bollywood’s favourite dream destination to a backdrop of conflict and politics, reflects India’s changing relationship with the valley.

Remember the scenic charm of Shakti Samanta’s Kashmir Ki Kali, with Sharmila Tagore’s Bollywood debut opposite the playful Shammi Kapoor? Or Raj Kapoor’s Bobby, which launched Rishi Kapoor and the stunning Dimple Kapadia, becoming the biggest box office hit of the year? Or perhaps Fitoor, Abhishek Kapoor’s adaptation of Dickens’ Great Expectations, starring Tabu, Aditya Roy Kapoor, and Katrina Kaif?


These films offered more than just cinema; they sold romance, music, dance, and dreams to many of us who longed to visit Kashmir and instead enjoyed the journey through the silver screen.


Kashmir has long been a dream destination for global travellers and a favourite of Bollywood filmmakers, who often saw its landscapes as a box office guarantee. Locations like Gulmarg, Pulwama, Srinagar, and Pahalgam have featured in some of Indian cinema’s most visually stunning scenes. Both classic and modern films have captured the valley’s beauty, making it the ideal backdrop for timeless romantic moments.


Junglee (1961) is said to be the first film to capture Shammi Kapoor’s musical romance and iconic “Yahoo!” shout—later inspiring the name of the search engine. It also marked Saira Banu’s striking debut opposite Kapoor’s comic charm, a pairing fondly remembered by many in their fifties and sixties today.


The 1965 hit Jab Jab Phool Khile, starring Shashi Kapoor and Nanda, tells the story of a poor Kashmiri boatman who falls for a wealthy tourist. Its melodious songs, composed by Laxmikant–Pyarelal with lyrics by Anand Bakshi, made it a box-office success in India and even in countries like Algeria, Morocco, Libya, and Marrakesh. While filming in Srinagar, a lieutenant colonel from Maharashtra reportedly fell for Nanda and asked director Suraj Prakash to relay a marriage proposal to her mother, which was declined. The film ran for 50 weeks and celebrated its golden jubilee.


By the time Kunal Kohli directed Fanaa (2006), Kashmir’s cinematic role had shifted. No longer just a romantic backdrop for songs and family drama, it increasingly became a setting for stories of terror, violence, and conflict, reflecting a politically charged narrative aimed at thrilling audiences.


Aamir Khan shed his romantic hero image to play a cold-blooded terrorist who kills his lover’s father without hesitation. The role—torn between love and a rogue nuclear bomb—could have harmed his screen persona, but didn’t. His strong performance, paired with memorable songs and Kashmir’s backdrop, fuelled the film’s success. Though romance takes a back seat to the terrorism plot, the two remain deeply intertwined.


A few years before Fanaa, Mission Kashmir (2000) had its own memorable moment during filming. Journalist Anupama Chopra, wife of director Vidhu Vinod Chopra, recalled that when Hrithik Roshan arrived in Kashmir in late 1999, his debut Kaho Naa... Pyaar Hai hadn’t been released, so no one recognised him. On his first day in Srinagar, dressed as a Kashmiri militant, security mistook him for a local due to his fair complexion and blocked his entry. Weeks later, the film’s release on 14 January 2000 made him an overnight star.


Rewind to 15 August 1992, when Mani Ratnam’s landmark Roja was released. Initially planned for Kashmir, security concerns and terrorism forced the team to shoot in lookalike locations—mainly Manali, with additional scenes in Coonoor and Ooty.


Written and directed by Vivek Agnihotri, The Kashmir Files tells a different story, depicting the exodus of Kashmiri Hindus after killings by Pakistan-backed terrorists. The reception was mixed—cinematography and performances were praised, but the film faced criticism for distorting history and promoting Islamophobia. Supporters, including Prime Minister Modi and BJP ministers, said it highlighted a neglected part of Kashmir’s past. However, screenings across India saw hate speeches and calls for violence against Muslims. Despite claims of political commitment to the Pandit cause, the film plays more like a monologue-heavy drama than a documentary, especially through a JNU student character whose research is never explained.


In his Al Jazeera article The Dangerous ‘Truth’ of The Kashmir Files (13 April 2022), Sanjay Kak—a Kashmiri Pandit and director of the documentary Jashn-e-Azaadi—recounts screening hurdles in several cities. He notes that days after the film’s release, Prime Minister Modi urged BJP MPs to watch it, saying it revealed “the truth that was suppressed for years.” Kak argues this endorsement marked the beginning of significant political capital being invested in the film and its contested narrative.


Place this alongside Sudip Sarkar’s Yahaan (2005), a romantic war drama about a Kashmiri girl and an Indian army officer amid Kashmir’s violence. It reminds us that Bollywood hasn’t wholly surrendered to films promoting violence and hate rooted in uncontrollable realities like birth, which we have no control over.


(The author is a film scholar. Views personal)

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