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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Tribal villages in Shahapur struggle to cremate their dead

 

Shahapur/Thane: Even as India celebrates the 78th year of Independence after the "Azadi Ka Amrit Mahotsav", a haunting reality persists just 73 kilometers from Mumbai. In Shahapur taluka of Thane district known for its dense tribal population over 328 villages and hamlets still lack proper cremation grounds, forcing residents to perform last rites in the open, under scorching sun or heavy rains, sometimes using tarpaulins to shield the deceased from the weather.

 

One such tragic incident recently unfolded in Shedrun village, where the body of a local resident, Daulat Pandurang Bhagat, had to be cremated in the open during a downpour. With no shelter or designated cremation site, the villagers were seen holding up a plastic tarpaulin over the funeral pyre to protect it from the rain. Despite previous approvals for cremation grounds in the village, internal disputes and administrative delays have halted the process.

 

Shahapur taluka comprises 110 gram panchayats, 227 revenue villages, and over 414 hamlets, yet basic infrastructure remains elusive. According to local reports:

  • 328 villages still perform open-air cremations.

  • Only 31 locations have protective walls around cremation sites, while 681 sites lack any boundary protection.

  • Electricity is unavailable at 680 cremation grounds, forcing villagers to conduct funerals by lantern light.

  • Water access is missing at 654 sites, available only at 59.

  • 229 sites are in dilapidated condition, while only 231 are considered usable.

 

These figures were confirmed by data from the Nagar Panchayat administration, revealing a disturbing pattern of neglect and underdevelopment in essential public facilities.

 

While speaking to The Perfect Voice, Shahapur Tehsildar Parmeshwar Kasule, said the issue in Shedrun, stating that 4 gunthas of land within the village gaothan has been earmarked for a cremation ground. However, due to conflicting opinions among villagers some opposing the use of pasture (gairan) land fearing future scarcity — the project has not progressed.

 

When asked about the larger issue of cremation ground shortages in 328 villages, Tehsildar Kasule downplayed the situation, stating “only Shedrun has a problem, the rest are fine”, a claim strongly disputed by village leaders and social activists.

 

Local leaders like Sharad Mogre, district organizer of Shahapur Taluka Sarpanch Association, noted that requests for funds and proposals were sent to the Zilla Parishad’s Public Works Department over two and a half years ago but were ignored.

 

Bharat Ubale, former director of the Shahapur Agricultural Produce Market Committee, labeled the recent Shedrun incident “deeply unfortunate,” urging the administration to urgently allocate funds and resolve the cremation ground crisis.

 

Activists like Vasant Pansare, President of the Prahar organization, highlighted the even more distressing fact that some villagers must cross rivers and streams during the monsoon to carry bodies to remote cremation sites due to a complete lack of roads.

 

That such a grim reality exists in the Deputy CM’s own district is sparking widespread outrage. Residents and activists are now calling on state and district-level authorities to act urgently and with compassion, to ensure dignified last rites for every citizen, regardless of geography or socio-economic status.

 

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