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By:

Ruddhi Phadke

22 September 2024 at 10:17:54 am

Oil, Missiles and the Gate of Tears

As the Houthis target Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure, the widening West Asia conflict raises fresh concerns over global oil supplies and India’s economy. As President Donald Trump struggles to extricate the United States from the increasingly intractable conflict with Iran, the Middle East has become more combustible still. The Houthis, the Yemeni militia once regarded as a peripheral actor in the region’s wars, have opened a new front with remarkable audacity. Over the weekend, they...

Oil, Missiles and the Gate of Tears

As the Houthis target Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure, the widening West Asia conflict raises fresh concerns over global oil supplies and India’s economy. As President Donald Trump struggles to extricate the United States from the increasingly intractable conflict with Iran, the Middle East has become more combustible still. The Houthis, the Yemeni militia once regarded as a peripheral actor in the region’s wars, have opened a new front with remarkable audacity. Over the weekend, they launched coordinated strikes involving ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones against Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure, hitting sensitive Aramco facilities in Jazan and Yanbu. The attacks were not merely another salvo in Yemen’s long war but a warning that the conflict is spilling across borders and drawing ever more of the Gulf into its vortex. This is not the first time the Houthis have targeted Saudi Arabia since the Iran conflict erupted. Riyadh and the Yemeni militia have traded blows before, in a rivalry that stretches back more than a decade. Although a fragile truce had tempered hostilities, the recent escalation has shattered any illusion of stability. Last week, the Houthis effectively closed the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi shipping, bringing a substantial portion of the kingdom's oil exports to an abrupt halt. The narrow maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden is one of the world's most vital trade arteries, carrying nearly 10 percent of global seaborne oil. For Saudi Arabia, it is an economic lifeline, with an estimated three-quarters of its oil exports passing through the strait. By disrupting this route and now striking Aramco's production facilities in Jazan and Yanbu, the Houthis are attacking not only the kingdom’s present oil exports but also its future production capacity. These strategic blows are being delivered with relatively inexpensive ballistic missiles and drones, allowing a lightly equipped militia to inflict outsized economic and geopolitical costs. The anti-ship cruise missile – Al-Mandab, named after the strait itself, can strike targets up to 300 km away. This radar guided missile costs a few hundred thousand dollars. Cheap Weapons Another example is the QUDS - a subsonic cruise missile gifted by Iran. It can travel nearly 150 km and costs just 50,000 dollars to make the missile. Houthis also rely on cheap drones like the SHAHED series. Some of the cheaper variants like SHAHED 131 cost just 10,000 dollars. Experts highlight that the Houthis are hurting the Saudi economy with weapons that cost less than what an average American makes in a year. The Yemeni group says that they are in no mood to stop the attacks. This leaves us with two big questions: Where are Trump’s guarantees and where is Pakistan? The United States has always projected itself as a net security provider, a pitch that was sold to Riyadh for decades. Today, when Saudi Arabia is battling Houthi attacks, the United States is missing. Islamabad is missing in action too. Islamabad has a mutual security pact with Riyadh. An attack on one is to be treated as an attack on the other as per the agreement. When it comes to billion-dollar loans or weapons, Pakistan is usually the first in line. When it comes about keeping promises, Islamabad is nowhere to be seen. Coming back to the Bab-el-Mandeb (which literally translates as the “Gate of Tears”), the name now carries an ominous resonance, especially if that gateway remains closed. For Saudi Arabia, the strait is an economic artery. The kingdom’s prosperity is built on the uninterrupted flow of oil exports, and any disruption to this vital route threatens its economic foundations. Today, Iran has tightened its grip around the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis are turning the Bab-el-Mandeb into another pressure point. The conflict is no longer confined to Iran’s borders or its confrontation with the United States. It has spilled into the Red Sea, into the arteries of global commerce, and into the heart of the world’s largest oil-producing region. Impact on India Renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, particularly targeting Aramco oil facilities, could have significant economic and strategic implications for India, one of the world’s largest crude oil importers. India imports nearly 85 per cent of its crude oil requirements, with Saudi Arabia remaining among its top suppliers. Any disruption to Aramco’s production or export infrastructure could tighten global oil supplies, leading to a spike in international crude prices. Higher oil prices would increase India’s import bill, widen the current account deficit, and put pressure on the rupee. Costlier crude could also fuel inflation by raising transportation, manufacturing and energy costs, complicating the Reserve Bank of India’s efforts to manage price stability. The attacks also heighten concerns over the security of energy infrastructure and shipping routes in the Gulf. If hostilities spill over to the Red Sea or threaten maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, shipping insurance premiums and freight costs could rise. This would affect not only crude oil imports but also India’s trade with Europe and West Asia. India also has strategic interests in the Gulf due to the presence of over nine million Indian expatriates in the region, many of whom live and work in Saudi Arabia and neighbouring countries. Escalating conflict could pose risks to their safety and disrupt remittance flows. While India has diversified its crude sourcing in recent years by increasing imports from countries such as Russia, Iraq and the UAE, prolonged instability in West Asia would continue to expose the Indian economy to energy price volatility. The situation underscores the importance of expanding strategic petroleum reserves, diversifying energy imports, and accelerating the transition towards renewable energy to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels.

Bharat’s Jetson Cities, Light-years Away from Nature

Updated: Jan 20, 2025

Jetson Cities

One thing is for certain: our Bharatiya cities, the big metros and towns, are fast becoming like the ‘Jetson’ cities. For those who are unaware of Jetson cities, these were first shown in the famous Hanna-Barbera cartoon series, the Jetsons, set in the 2100s, where cities are air-tight glass globules tethered to the ground, and the only way to get in and out are the flying cars. Yes, we, the city-dwellers, aspire to tall skyscrapers, spectacular bridges, world-class tunnels, swooshing metro trains, and we are building Jetson-like flying cars. A few HD drone images here and there, during the day and at night and around twilight, and we are content that our cities have become the cynosure of our own eyes. We want our cities to be brightly lit, with neon signs, laser shows, and large billboard videos. We would then fulfil our inner desire to have a city on par with Tokyo, New York, and Shanghai.


Our buildings, designed for the next 30 years, are well air-conditioned, shielding occupants from a soupy dust bowl of brown smog, soot, particulate matter, and fine dust. It is said that most new home buyers invest at least 10% of their property’s price in enhancing the interiors, soundproofing their homes, using air purifiers and conditioners, and disconnecting from the outside world for that much-needed solace. Indeed, large builders promote their projects as close to nature amidst tranquillity. However, there is always another builder eager to get one plot of land ahead of yours to enjoy that nature. To be truthful, access to nature now comes at a premium - even the skies.


Let’s assume the working-age population is occupied in the leisure of our Jetson cities, but how many of their young school and college-going kids have seen the long arm of the Milky Way galaxy from their cities? How many have witnessed a comet zooming by? How many know about endemic plants with medicinal properties? When did they last see a chirping house sparrow? How many know that the nearest sewage drain was once a freshwater stream? When did they last find their suburban beach prettier than the resort beaches of Maldives?


The intent to ask these questions is simple: Bharat is currently at a crossroads. Pundits are enthusiastic about a cultural renaissance on the horizon. Corporate leaders, on the other hand, want us to invest hundreds of hours each week to pay our dues to the growth of the national GDP. But no one asks, if a cultural renaissance is to occur, who will generate the new understandings and insights of nature that arise typically during such a period of human advancement? No one is actually asking, for whom are we building the nation if there is no time for children, or worse, if there is no time or intent to have children. In the process of growing rich, we are about to become old. By 2047, 65% of the population under the age of 35 will grow beyond 35 all at once, and we’d have an enormous population in advanced ages with a tapering young population, a graph that looks like a banyan tree. Unfortunately, that young population will have no access to the knowledge that nature has to offer, neither flora and fauna nor the seas and the skies.


Our urbane lifestyles need tempering. Such tempering can occur only if we ensure the revival of natural sciences during this period of cultural renaissance and nation-building. Let’s not rely solely on the educational system. With Indian Knowledge Systems, constructive changes are underway, and academic curricula are poised to improve for the greater good. However, true knowledge arises only when parents and grandparents introduce children to nature. Genuine understanding also develops from extracurricular activities in schools and colleges that encourage kids to observe, journal, and act on their discoveries. On the positive side, our country’s forest cover is increasing, as announced by the government. However, efforts must be made to ensure that every school or college, whether in Mumbai, Vijayawada, Gorakhpur, Ratlam, Thrissur, Bhuj, Faridabad, Imphal, Manali, Cuttack, or Ajmer, guarantees that their students are well aware of the endemic nature of their surroundings and are regularly observing and recording data on whatever interests them. Let kids observe rivers and understand the volume of water that flows through them. Let children learn about the decline of house sparrows in their cities and what steps should be taken to revive their populations. Let them study the bees in their nearby groves and recognise the vital role these bees play in nature.


Of course, you need to learn AI, robotics, fintech, the next generation of management courses, and all the engineering bells and whistles. However, we must not leave the next generation with inadequate comprehension and skills for understanding nature. We must ensure that nature conservation is not merely lip service or a tool for politicised green activists. This can be achieved if natural sciences are given the respect they deserve at the school, undergraduate, and postgraduate levels.


Indeed, I am a plebeian, and you might feel that you, too, could write a rant about the plight of our urban lives. Urban development and municipal experts have many solutions to propose, but few are willing to take action. However, that is not the issue I wish to highlight. I aim to illustrate a much larger concern—that Indian city dwellers are disoriented and devoid of nature, lacking a guiding star to lead them toward a brighter future. Our cities of Mumbai, Delhi, Bengaluru, Ahmedabad, Kolkata, and Chennai have taken on characteristics reminiscent of Jetson-like cities. We show little regard for the Nagar Devata, Gram Devata, and Van Devata, who have protected the cities, towns, and forests that once surrounded us. We wait for formal governance to clean up our beaches, rivers, and ponds without making sufficient efforts to prevent pollution in the first place.


For those striving to grasp spirituality not through the Puranas and Aadi-Granth but through new-age podcasts, I recommend watching Vinay Varanasi’s podcast on Bhagavan Vishnu’s Dashavatar. If it is clear that Bhagavan Vishnu does not tolerate disregard for Bhudevi or Mother Earth, why do we, the devotees of Bhagavan Vishnu, continue to pollute our Mother Earth—her air, soil, waters, and sounds? Or have we taken Elon Musk's words at face value, assuming our next destination is Mars after destroying Earth, only to ruin Mars later, even worse than its current clinically sterile state? If that is the case, then bear with me when I say this: these Jetson cities stand on precarious pillars of ego, victimhood, apathy, and consumerism, waiting to be toppled either by the true harbingers of order or by false prophets. Therefore, teach the next generations to observe nature, appreciate our coexistence with other species, and venerate the forces of nature. By doing so, we humans will be good, at least for the next thousand years. If not, prepare for a bleak future by the end of this century.


(The author is a Space and Emerging Technology Fellow at the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology, Observer Research Foundation, Mumbai. Views personal.)

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