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By:

Commodore S.L. Deshmukh

31 October 2024 at 3:00:19 am

The Dragon’s Expanding Sea

China’s creeping conquest of the South China Sea is testing the limits of international law and the resolve of the world’s democracies. Few lines have caused as much anxiety in the cartographic theatre of our times as the one China insists on drawing across the sea. The “nine-dash line,” an ambiguous crescent looping deep into the South China Sea, transcends the limits of a mere maritime claim. It is Beijing’s geopolitical doctrine and a challenge to the post-war international order....

The Dragon’s Expanding Sea

China’s creeping conquest of the South China Sea is testing the limits of international law and the resolve of the world’s democracies. Few lines have caused as much anxiety in the cartographic theatre of our times as the one China insists on drawing across the sea. The “nine-dash line,” an ambiguous crescent looping deep into the South China Sea, transcends the limits of a mere maritime claim. It is Beijing’s geopolitical doctrine and a challenge to the post-war international order. Strategic Waters Stretching across waters contested by Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia, the line encompasses almost the entirety of the South China Sea, one of the world’s busiest maritime arteries through which trillions of dollars in trade pass through it annually. Beneath its waters lie fisheries, hydrocarbons and strategic routes vital to Asia’s economic future. To Beijing, these waters are part of China’s “core interests” - a term also reserved for the sanctities of Tibet, Xinjiang and Taiwan. China’s justification is steeped in history. Official narratives frequently invoke the Western Han Dynasty and ancient Chinese mariners supposedly traversing these waters as early as the second century BCE. Historical memory, in Beijing’s telling, confers sovereign legitimacy. Yet modern international law is rather less sentimental. Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), maritime rights are governed not by imperial nostalgia but by clearly defined territorial and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) principles. But that has not restrained Beijing. Over the past two decades China has pursued what strategists call a ‘salami-slicing’ campaign, incremental moves without provoking outright war. Collectively, however, China’s steps amount to a slow-motion redrawing of Asia’s maritime map. China is increasingly behaving like an archipelagic state akin to Indonesia or the Philippines, claiming rights over waters between island groups as though they were internal seas. Yet UNCLOS recognises only a limited set of nations under such a framework, and China is not among them. Nevertheless, Beijing has persisted in treating contested waters as sovereign space, demanding deference from foreign vessels and aircraft. More visible has been the transformation of reefs into fortresses. Across the Spratly and Paracel island chains, submerged atolls have been dredged into artificial islands complete with airstrips, radar stations, missile systems and harbours. What were once coral outcrops are now unsinkable military bases. Beijing then uses these engineered features to buttress wider EEZ claims, despite international rulings rejecting such interpretations. Pressure Tactics The strategy extends beyond conventional naval power. China has mastered the art of “grey-zone” coercion: pressure tactics deliberately designed to remain below the threshold of war. Instead of deploying destroyers alone, Beijing relies heavily on coast-guard vessels, fishing fleets and maritime militias. Swarms of fishing boats descend upon disputed waters, intimidating rival claimants while providing Beijing plausible deniability. For smaller Southeast Asian states, the imbalance is stark. Filipino or Vietnamese vessels often find themselves shadowed, blocked or harassed by heavily armed ships of the China Coast Guard. Fishing communities that once operated freely now navigate an increasingly militarised sea. Beijing’s most audacious manoeuvre, however, has been juridical. China routinely twists the language of UNCLOS to justify claims that the treaty itself plainly undermines. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague delivered a sweeping rebuke, ruling that China’s expansive ‘historic rights’ claims had no legal basis under international law. The tribunal also determined that several contested features in the Spratly Islands were incapable of generating full EEZ entitlements. China has simply ignored the verdict. Western powers, led by the United States, have attempted to challenge Beijing through Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS), sailing naval vessels through disputed waters to demonstrate that these are international seas, not Chinese lakes. Yet such symbolic missions are sorely limited in efficacy. Many analysts increasingly argue that occasional naval patrols and ritual diplomatic protests are insufficient against a power willing to combine patience, economic leverage and military intimidation. While China’s strategy is cumulative and long-term, the response to it often appears episodic and reactive. Nor is Washington’s position entirely uncomplicated. America champions UNCLOS while never having ratified the convention itself, a contradiction Beijing has eagerly exploited. Meanwhile, perceptions of declining American resolve, heightened by Middle Eastern entanglements, domestic political polarisation and wavering strategic consistency, have emboldened Chinese assertiveness. The QUAD grouping of India, Japan, Australia and America has yet to evolve into the cohesive strategic bloc many once imagined. India, too, occupies an increasingly pivotal role in this maritime contest. Though not a claimant in the South China Sea disputes, it has deep stakes in preserving freedom of navigation and resisting any precedent that allows powerful states to unilaterally redefine maritime norms. Beijing’s ambitions no longer stop at the ‘near seas.’ Through ports, infrastructure projects and naval deployments stretching from Gwadar to Djibouti, China is steadily expanding its footprint into the Indian Ocean and the wider Indo-Pacific. If Beijing succeeds in normalising its expansive interpretation of maritime sovereignty, other revisionist powers may follow suit. The result would not merely be regional instability but the erosion of the very rules underpinning global commerce and navigation. The South China Sea has thus become a laboratory for a new kind of geopolitical contest being fought through attrition and incremental encroachment. China’s genius lies in understanding that global attention spans are short, democracies divided and institutions slow-moving. That leaves the international community with an uncomfortable choice. Either it collectively reinforces the legal norms embodied in UNCLOS and the Hague ruling, or it tacitly accepts a world in which might quietly supersedes right. (The author is a retired naval aviation officer and a defence and geopolitical analyst. Views personal.)

Bharat’s Jetson Cities, Light-years Away from Nature

Updated: Jan 20, 2025

Jetson Cities

One thing is for certain: our Bharatiya cities, the big metros and towns, are fast becoming like the ‘Jetson’ cities. For those who are unaware of Jetson cities, these were first shown in the famous Hanna-Barbera cartoon series, the Jetsons, set in the 2100s, where cities are air-tight glass globules tethered to the ground, and the only way to get in and out are the flying cars. Yes, we, the city-dwellers, aspire to tall skyscrapers, spectacular bridges, world-class tunnels, swooshing metro trains, and we are building Jetson-like flying cars. A few HD drone images here and there, during the day and at night and around twilight, and we are content that our cities have become the cynosure of our own eyes. We want our cities to be brightly lit, with neon signs, laser shows, and large billboard videos. We would then fulfil our inner desire to have a city on par with Tokyo, New York, and Shanghai.


Our buildings, designed for the next 30 years, are well air-conditioned, shielding occupants from a soupy dust bowl of brown smog, soot, particulate matter, and fine dust. It is said that most new home buyers invest at least 10% of their property’s price in enhancing the interiors, soundproofing their homes, using air purifiers and conditioners, and disconnecting from the outside world for that much-needed solace. Indeed, large builders promote their projects as close to nature amidst tranquillity. However, there is always another builder eager to get one plot of land ahead of yours to enjoy that nature. To be truthful, access to nature now comes at a premium - even the skies.


Let’s assume the working-age population is occupied in the leisure of our Jetson cities, but how many of their young school and college-going kids have seen the long arm of the Milky Way galaxy from their cities? How many have witnessed a comet zooming by? How many know about endemic plants with medicinal properties? When did they last see a chirping house sparrow? How many know that the nearest sewage drain was once a freshwater stream? When did they last find their suburban beach prettier than the resort beaches of Maldives?


The intent to ask these questions is simple: Bharat is currently at a crossroads. Pundits are enthusiastic about a cultural renaissance on the horizon. Corporate leaders, on the other hand, want us to invest hundreds of hours each week to pay our dues to the growth of the national GDP. But no one asks, if a cultural renaissance is to occur, who will generate the new understandings and insights of nature that arise typically during such a period of human advancement? No one is actually asking, for whom are we building the nation if there is no time for children, or worse, if there is no time or intent to have children. In the process of growing rich, we are about to become old. By 2047, 65% of the population under the age of 35 will grow beyond 35 all at once, and we’d have an enormous population in advanced ages with a tapering young population, a graph that looks like a banyan tree. Unfortunately, that young population will have no access to the knowledge that nature has to offer, neither flora and fauna nor the seas and the skies.


Our urbane lifestyles need tempering. Such tempering can occur only if we ensure the revival of natural sciences during this period of cultural renaissance and nation-building. Let’s not rely solely on the educational system. With Indian Knowledge Systems, constructive changes are underway, and academic curricula are poised to improve for the greater good. However, true knowledge arises only when parents and grandparents introduce children to nature. Genuine understanding also develops from extracurricular activities in schools and colleges that encourage kids to observe, journal, and act on their discoveries. On the positive side, our country’s forest cover is increasing, as announced by the government. However, efforts must be made to ensure that every school or college, whether in Mumbai, Vijayawada, Gorakhpur, Ratlam, Thrissur, Bhuj, Faridabad, Imphal, Manali, Cuttack, or Ajmer, guarantees that their students are well aware of the endemic nature of their surroundings and are regularly observing and recording data on whatever interests them. Let kids observe rivers and understand the volume of water that flows through them. Let children learn about the decline of house sparrows in their cities and what steps should be taken to revive their populations. Let them study the bees in their nearby groves and recognise the vital role these bees play in nature.


Of course, you need to learn AI, robotics, fintech, the next generation of management courses, and all the engineering bells and whistles. However, we must not leave the next generation with inadequate comprehension and skills for understanding nature. We must ensure that nature conservation is not merely lip service or a tool for politicised green activists. This can be achieved if natural sciences are given the respect they deserve at the school, undergraduate, and postgraduate levels.


Indeed, I am a plebeian, and you might feel that you, too, could write a rant about the plight of our urban lives. Urban development and municipal experts have many solutions to propose, but few are willing to take action. However, that is not the issue I wish to highlight. I aim to illustrate a much larger concern—that Indian city dwellers are disoriented and devoid of nature, lacking a guiding star to lead them toward a brighter future. Our cities of Mumbai, Delhi, Bengaluru, Ahmedabad, Kolkata, and Chennai have taken on characteristics reminiscent of Jetson-like cities. We show little regard for the Nagar Devata, Gram Devata, and Van Devata, who have protected the cities, towns, and forests that once surrounded us. We wait for formal governance to clean up our beaches, rivers, and ponds without making sufficient efforts to prevent pollution in the first place.


For those striving to grasp spirituality not through the Puranas and Aadi-Granth but through new-age podcasts, I recommend watching Vinay Varanasi’s podcast on Bhagavan Vishnu’s Dashavatar. If it is clear that Bhagavan Vishnu does not tolerate disregard for Bhudevi or Mother Earth, why do we, the devotees of Bhagavan Vishnu, continue to pollute our Mother Earth—her air, soil, waters, and sounds? Or have we taken Elon Musk's words at face value, assuming our next destination is Mars after destroying Earth, only to ruin Mars later, even worse than its current clinically sterile state? If that is the case, then bear with me when I say this: these Jetson cities stand on precarious pillars of ego, victimhood, apathy, and consumerism, waiting to be toppled either by the true harbingers of order or by false prophets. Therefore, teach the next generations to observe nature, appreciate our coexistence with other species, and venerate the forces of nature. By doing so, we humans will be good, at least for the next thousand years. If not, prepare for a bleak future by the end of this century.


(The author is a Space and Emerging Technology Fellow at the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology, Observer Research Foundation, Mumbai. Views personal.)

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