A Smaller India for a Brighter Tomorrow

In the globe’s most crowded neighbourhood, India’s choices will shape not just its future but the world’s.

On this World Population Day, July 11, it is worth reflecting on a fact with significant implications: over half the world’s population lives within a circle drawn over Southeast Asia. Known as the Valeriepieris Circle, this area includes India at its center, not by fault, but by history. It is where civilizations have grown and flourished. However, this concentration also places immense responsibility on India. How we manage our population will influence not just our own future, but that of the region and the world.

What if India’s population had grown at the same pace as the global average since independence in 1947? The global average annual population growth rate since 1950 has been about 1.2 percent. If India had followed this trajectory, its population today would be around 500 to 550 million instead of 1.4 billion. This is not about rewriting the past, but imagining what is still possible ahead. This article is written not as a population expert, but as a scientist and citizen. It reflects on how voluntary, informed decisions can shape a future where every Indian thrives. That dream should become a reality one day.

With fewer people, our rich natural resources—fertile land, rivers, forests, and biodiversity—could better support our needs. Today, these resources are under pressure. By 2036, cities alone are expected to house over 600 million people, placing a massive burden on housing, water, and transport infrastructure.

The economy would benefit as well. Although we are now the world’s fourth-largest economy at USD 4.19 trillion, our per-person income is around USD 2,880. With fewer people, that could triple to about USD 8,380, giving each citizen a larger share of national prosperity.

Encouragingly, India is already witnessing an inclusive growth trajectory. According to the World Bank’s 2025 Poverty and Equity Brief, India now ranks fourth globally in income equality, ahead of the US, China, and Germany. The Gini index, a measure of inequality, has improved significantly, and 171 million people have exited extreme poverty over the past decade. These gains show what is possible when policy is aligned with purpose.

Healthcare would also improve. At present, India spends about USD 83 per person on health. With a smaller population, this could double to USD 166, leading to better care, more doctors, and shorter waiting times.

Education stands to gain. Less crowded classrooms allow for more attention to each child. Today, over half of our students learn in overcrowded conditions. Better education leads to smaller families, and smaller families allow for better education. This creates a positive cycle.

Environmental health would also improve. Water availability per person has dropped from over 5,000 cubic meters in 1951 to under 1,500 today. A smaller population would ease this burden, enabling better conservation of rivers, forests and clean air.

Employment remains a concern. Nearly 45 percent of graduates under 25 are unemployed. With fewer young people entering the workforce, the gap between skills and opportunities could narrow significantly.

Gender equity would also improve. Smaller families provide women with greater freedom to study, work, and access healthcare. According to McKinsey, achieving gender parity in the workforce could add USD 770 billion to India’s economy by 2025. This would be a significant gain from empowering half of the population.

India could also perform better in global arenas such as sports. At the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, India won seven medals. Australia, with just 26 million people, secured 46. With focused investment and talent development, India could nurture many more champions. A vision of a smaller yet stronger India should be taught and celebrated.

Education must start early, shaping aspirations around cleaner cities, better jobs and stronger families. Where schools cannot reach, storytelling can. Films, village theatre, mobile videos and radio dramas, especially in regional languages, can nudge social norms. Government initiatives like Mission Parivar Vikas and Ayushman Bharat show that respectful, culturally attuned messaging works.

The Valeriepieris Circle is a reminder that we live in one of the most densely populated parts of the world. Our choices matter not only for us, but for our neighbors and the planet.

The real challenge is not population size but unmet aspirations. One in five people globally cannot have the number of children they want. India’s fertility rate, at 1.9, is already below replacement level. Yet 36 percent of pregnancies are unintended, and many parents have more or fewer children than they planned. This is not about control but choice. Unlike China’s coercive model, India must empower its citizens through education, healthcare and informed decision-making.

If we act now, real change is achievable within a generation. The economy could grow more quickly, families could save more, and public funds for housing, education, and healthcare could go further. More women could enter the workforce, and India’s performance in global competitions might also improve.

These future possibilities should not remain confined to policy documents. They must be part of everyday discussions, school curricula, and the national imagination. When young minds and communities begin to visualize a healthier, more equitable India, change becomes both possible and inevitable.

We are at a pivotal moment. The decisions we make today will shape not just our demographic profile but our social and economic future. A smaller population, supported by inclusive growth and intentional policy, can ensure that India’s tomorrow is not only brighter, but more balanced, resilient, and just.

(The author is the former Director, Agharkar Research Institute, Pune, and Visiting Professor, IIT Bombay. Views personal.)