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A Dry Monsoon, A Bigger Water Challenge
A deficient monsoon is less a warning of immediate food scarcity than a test of how well India can manage a more volatile and uneven water regime. Kolhapur: India has ended the 2026 southwest monsoon season with rainfall 12.6 percent below the long-period average, making it the driest monsoon since 2015 and the fourth-driest since 2001. With El Niño influence strengthening, heatwaves becoming more intense and pressure on water resources mounting, the challenge is no longer si
Rajendra Joshi
Oct 43 min read
El Niño and India’s Economic Future
Even with better forecasting and policy preparedness, El Niño remains a significant risk to agriculture and inflation. With rising temperatures in April, forecasts of the southwest monsoon become a focal point across India. In India monsoon is crucial for agriculture, water availability, food security, and rural incomes. Its performance influences economic activity, stability and welfare and is closely tracked by policymakers, businesses, and farmers. A normal monsoon suppor
Amey Chitale
Jul 85 min read
RBI’s Stability Doctrine
As external shocks batter the economy, the RBI and government are choosing caution over activism. In periods of geopolitical turmoil, the task of macroeconomic management shifts from maximizing growth to preserving stability. India entered the second half of 2026 confronting twin pressures from the West Asian crisis and a developing El Niño, forcing policymakers to prioritize resilience over activism. Last week brought a flurry of activity in form of the release of GDP statis
Amey Chitale
Jun 104 min read
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