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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

A beacon of hope for rural athletes

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

How Akash Shinde transformed from a shy village boy to a prominent kabaddi player

beacon of hope

Mumbai: In the heart of Nashik's Adgaon village, a young boy Akash Shinde dared to dream big. Little did he know that his journey from playing in the muddy grounds of his town to becoming a PKL winner would inspire a generation of aspiring athletes.


“Initially, when I used to play, I would come home with bruises because Kabaddi was played in the mud,” Akash recalls as he enters his fourth season with the Puneri Paltan. And despite his family's initial concerns, his passion for kabaddi burned bright, fuelled by the unwavering support of his early mentors Sagar Malwade and Vinod Labde.


His path to success was far from smooth. He faced numerous setbacks, failing to make the cut in his first attempts at various levels. “I fell short in my first attempts at all levels. I went for my senior camp for Maharashtra and fell short there too!”


But instead of letting these failures discourage him, Akash used them as stepping stones. “These setbacks kept me determined, and I knew I needed to try harder and with renewed energy to show the world what I could do and achieve.”


His breakthrough came in 2019 at a seniors’ trial in Nashik. This performance opened doors, leading him to play in the Junior Nationals and eventually catching the eye of Yuva Paltan, which is the Puneri Paltan’s academy.


The turning point in Akash’s career came when he represented his college in Beed, earning his first chance to play for Maharashtra. Under the guidance of Anil Jagdale and Kailas Jagdale, his skills flourished. His journey accelerated as he moved from Mahindra & Mahindra to Yuva Paltan, where mentors like Sangram and Ashok helped refine his game.


Akash’s PKL debut with Puneri Paltan in Season 8 was a moment of immense pride, not just for him but for his entire village. “No player from the Nashik region had made it to PKL or even the Maharashtra team, so it was a shock, a pleasant one, for everyone. The entire Nashik district was very happy. It felt really good,” he reminisces.


But it was in Season 9 that he truly announced his arrival, becoming a formidable force on the mat. In the 22 matches that Akash played on the way to his first PKL final, he scored 139 raid points, averaging 6.32 raid point per match.


His performances caught the eye of the national selectors, earning him a spot on the Indian team for the Asian Games. “I received my Team India kit on the 27th of October. I still remember it,” he says.


The crowning glory came in PKL Season 10 when Akash, along with his Puneri Paltan teammates, lifted the coveted trophy. Albeit playing a diminished role, he managed an impressive 56 raid points in the 13 matches he played. “There was only one target then... we had made up our minds that we had to win the title this season, whatever it took,” he shared, reflecting on the team’s collective determination. Now, Akash stands as a beacon of hope for young athletes from rural India. His message to them is clear: “Keep believing in yourselves and your dedication and efforts.” He emphasizes the importance of loyalty, urging young players to stay true to the clubs that nurture them.


As he prepares for PKL Season 11, his journey from the muddy grounds of Adgaon to the bright lights of Pro Kabaddi serves as a testament to the power of dreams, determination, and unwavering support.

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