top of page

By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

A Living Classroom for Environmental Learning

Once barren and debris-filled, the land was transformed into a thriving theme park for environmental education.

In my earlier article, I traced how our biomedical waste facility in Thane grew from modest beginnings into a robust service network spanning multiple districts. What started as a daunting challenge—convincing hospitals, acquiring vehicles, and gaining regulatory trust—eventually matured into a recognised and certified operation. Along the way, we expanded our outreach, launched awareness campaigns, and even organised an international conference on biomedical waste management. In doing so, it proved that persistence and partnerships can transform an idea into an institution.


While setting up the biomedical waste treatment facility, we also began transforming the debris-filled land around us into a green space. This area, later known as Ankur Theme Park, became a hands-on learning environment for schoolchildren, college students, and the general public.


As we installed the machines, we decided to green the barren, debris-strewn land given to us.


We cleared the land and began tilling it to make the soil suitable for vegetation. Around the same time, we had already started our biocompost unit, followed by vermicompost units. To condition the soil, we used our own naturally made biocompost.


Gradually, this effort grew into a theme park. We intended to invite school and college students to step outside the classroom and learn directly from nature.


We created demonstration units—a biogas plant, a plant nursery, a butterfly garden, plantations of economically important plants, medicinal plants, flowering and ornamental plants, and more. We also constructed large ponds for aquaculture. Soon, guided tours were being organised not just for students but also for common citizens. Our aim was to develop this space into a true Centre of Excellence for environmental education.


We were privileged to have many eminent individuals visit our centre.


As mentioned in one of my earlier articles, Shri Ram Naik, then Petroleum Minister of the Government of India, inaugurated the facility.


Later, our spirits soared when the late Shri Manohar Parrikar, then Chief Minister of Goa, visited. It was truly a memorable event for us.


Dr Dilip Biswas, Chairman of the Central Pollution Control Board, also came all the way from New Delhi after learning that an environmental NGO had set up a common biomedical waste treatment facility. After his visit, he remarked that this facility was a role model and the first of its kind in India.


We were equally honoured by the visit of Dr Anil Kakodkar, an eminent nuclear scientist and former Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission of India. He, too, was very impressed with the work being done at our facility.


The story is nearing its end. I will share the final chapter in the next article. Until then, wishing you a pleasant weekend!


(The writer is an environmentalist.)

Comments

bottom of page