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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

A New Silk Road or Steel Trap?

Updated: Feb 21, 2025

Vietnam’s ambitious rail link to China could turbocharge trade, but runs the risk of Hanoi becoming more entangled in Beijing’s embrace.

Vietnam

Vietnam’s National Assembly has given the green light to a colossal $8.37 billion railway project linking its northern port city of Hai Phong to Lao Cai, on the border with China’s Yunnan province. Slated for completion by 2030, the 390-kilometer rail link promises to boost economic integration, cut logistics costs and facilitate trade.


The railway is part of Vietnam’s ‘Two Corridors, One Belt’ initiative, itself a nod to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). On paper, it should unlock new efficiencies for manufacturers and exporters. The new line will serve industrial powerhouses home to global firms like Samsung and Foxconn, whose supply chains rely on steady flows of components from China. By improving transit times and reducing Vietnam’s reliance on its congested and outdated road network, the railway ideally ought to make Vietnam more competitive.


But while Chinese investment in infrastructure has transformed logistics across Southeast Asia (as seen in Laos and Thailand), such projects come with a strategic price tag. China has pledged financing for the new Vietnamese railway, raising concerns about debt dependency. The China-Laos Railway, operational since 2021, has slashed transportation costs but has also saddled Laos with billions in debt, strengthening Beijing’s leverage over Vientiane. Could Vietnam, a country historically wary of Chinese dominance, be heading down the same track?


China has been Vietnam’s largest trading partner for years, but their relationship is fraught with tensions. Maritime disputes in the South China Sea have kept diplomatic ties on edge, even as trade and investment deepen. Vietnam’s ‘bamboo diplomacy’ - balancing China’s economic pull with strategic ties to the United States and other powers - will be sorely tested as this railway project unfolds. Washington and Tokyo, both keen on bolstering Hanoi as an alternative to Beijing’s economic hegemony, will watch closely.


Beyond geopolitics, there are domestic challenges. Vietnam’s infrastructure projects have a long history of delays and cost overruns, and this railway is unlikely to be an exception. A feasibility study is set to begin this year, yet major infrastructure efforts in Vietnam often get bogged down in bureaucratic inertia and funding gaps. The country’s recent approval of a $67 billion high-speed rail project from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City further raises questions about resource allocation and execution.


Then there’s the economic calculus. The new railway will reportedly serve 20 percent of Vietnam’s population and nearly 25 percent of its GDP, but critics argue that the cost-benefit analysis remains opaque. Vietnam’s existing rail network, much of it dating back to the French colonial era, has long suffered from neglect. Trains currently crawl along outdated tracks at speeds of just 50 km/h. The new line promises speeds of up to 160 km/h, but will this be enough to justify the price tag?


For Beijing, the railway’s strategic benefits are clear. The line will integrate seamlessly into the China-Europe freight network, allowing Vietnamese goods to reach European markets faster via China’s growing rail corridors. More crucially, it cements Beijing’s influence in Southeast Asia, knitting Vietnam tighter into China’s economic orbit.


Vietnam, however, has little interest in becoming a mere waypoint in China’s grand design. It seeks to harness Chinese investment without becoming over-reliant, maintaining its status as a key node in global supply chains that stretch beyond China. The country has aggressively courted Japanese and Western investment as a hedge against Beijing’s dominance.


A smoother transport link with China could make Vietnam even more attractive to investors, but could also deepen its dependence on Chinese raw materials and logistics infrastructure. If managed carefully, Vietnam’s new railway could be a boon, slashing transport times and reinforcing its status as Southeast Asia’s rising economic star. But if Beijing’s financing terms prove onerous, or if geopolitical tensions escalate, the project could turn into a costly albatross.

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