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By:

Chaitanya Giri

3 October 2024 at 5:27:32 am

The Enduring Logic of ISRO

PART II: India’s strategic autonomy in space depends on an ISRO equipped to serve both civilian and strategic needs in an increasingly unstable world. Recently, a certain segment within the Indian space ecosystem, motivated by vested interests and operating clandestinely, has begun to undermine ISRO’s future significance. This segment argues that the commercial sector will lead innovation and that the era of the publicly operated civilian agency ISRO has concluded. However, given the current...

The Enduring Logic of ISRO

PART II: India’s strategic autonomy in space depends on an ISRO equipped to serve both civilian and strategic needs in an increasingly unstable world. Recently, a certain segment within the Indian space ecosystem, motivated by vested interests and operating clandestinely, has begun to undermine ISRO’s future significance. This segment argues that the commercial sector will lead innovation and that the era of the publicly operated civilian agency ISRO has concluded. However, given the current circumstances, the commercial space sector is unable to replace or overshadow the nationalised space industry. In India, the government-run space industry remains resilient to sanctions and can operate across competing geoeconomic blocs. If India intends to procure the RD-191 semi-cryogenic engines from Russia, the state-controlled space sector would facilitate the acquisition. The Indian commercial sector, particularly startups embedded within Western space ecosystems, is likely to be hesitant in engaging with nations regarded as pariahs by Western states, as such interactions would contravene their existing commercial agreements. Therefore, India’s space program cannot rely on entities that non-state actors prohibit from engaging in business with significant portions of the international economy solely because those entities are considered pariahs. Institutional Memory The Indian space programme itself was forged during decades when access to critical technologies was routinely restricted by advanced industrial powers. Following the 1974 nuclear test and later during the technology-denial regimes of the 1980s and 1990s, Indian scientists were compelled to develop indigenous capabilities in launch vehicles, remote sensing and satellite applications. The institutional memory of those years explains why strategic autonomy remains deeply embedded within ISRO’s organisational culture. Although the Indian commercial space sector is eager to position the Indian government as its primary client, given the government’s encouragement and support over the past six years, there exists a discrepancy between the government’s pace and the sector’s ambitious objectives. The principal catalyst for innovation in the global space industry is the pioneering endeavours of leading spacefaring nations, supported by substantial financial investments. Indian commercial space entities, particularly nascent startups, derive considerable advantage from the ecosystem in the United States, which enables expedited market penetration, lucrative contractual engagements, cutting-edge research and development, reduced regulatory obstacles, and a more sustainable commercial environment—often exceeding the immediate benefits offered by the Indian government. Although a match is emerging between the capabilities of India’s startups and the requirements of the US space program, this alignment does not benefit India. Presently, Indian commercial space operators engage minimally, if at all, with many in the non-US ecosystems. As a result, Indian commercial space entities remain heavily reliant on a market that seeks to surpass the Indian government as its primary customer; this market is a significant yet challenging talent magnet, even for other NATO and Five Eyes nations. Amid a decade characterised by a global polycrisis, the concentration risk within our commercial space ecosystem substantially hampers India’s strategic autonomy. To maintain its role as a primary customer, India must promote the growth of indigenous startups engaged in its implicit space strategy. Anchor customers are vital in supporting commercial space enterprises. Such support can be effectively achieved through the development of a clear agenda that mandates government ministries and state governments to utilise these entities’ services comprehensively, thereby fostering socio-economic development, enhancing both cross-border and domestic security, securing supply chains, and ensuring political stability. Additionally, commercial space stakeholders should seek to explore new markets equitably, particularly within the Global South and among near-peer counterparts in the Global North, thereby indirectly promoting India’s strategic interests. Dual-Purposing ISRO Civil-military fusion functions reciprocally. During periods of relative peace, the civilian sector benefits from innovations resulting from this integration. Conversely, in anticipation of extended conflicts, it is the military sector that adopts these innovations. Should, as Prime Minister Modi has implied, the forthcoming global conditions pose significant challenges, then the Indian space program - encompassing its civilian, military, and commercial aspects - must be adequately prepared to serve national defence. India’s commercial, civil, and military space ecosystems must not become isolated systems; their integration is intended to serve the overarching national objective. The amalgamation of civil, military, and commercial space sectors among prominent spacefaring nations has contributed to recent conflicts in Ukraine, West Asia, Africa, and South Asia. Should these conflicts intensify and spread, major space powers are likely to employ their space capabilities to incite kinetic and non-kinetic hostilities and to develop defensive mechanisms in response. The role of ISRO holds paramount significance in contemporary times. Maintaining an exclusive pacifist stance for ISRO is as counterproductive as utilising it solely for vanity projects. ISRO is the originator of early-stage technological innovations suitable for subsequent commercialisation and adoption by commercial space entities. Additionally, ISRO develops technologies aligned with India’s national security requirements, which could be integrated by the DSA-DSRA-DGA coalition. While fulfilling these objectives, ISRO also contributes to socio-economic development through space initiatives, a practice it has successfully undertaken, now approached with a strategic resolve. Formal Restructuring India now requires an ISRO that actively serves the national interest in both peacetime and wartime and effectively addresses all forms of crisis. The organisation must undergo a formal restructuring to facilitate efficient dual-use research. Any reform in the space sector must include a revision of ISRO’s overarching vision and mission. ISRO’s capacity to undertake comprehensive, non-military, and dual-purpose security projects would be of immense strategic value to India in overcoming the global polycrisis. The polycrisis also demands that the Indian government establish a ‘joint space picture’ by amalgamating sensor data from civilian, commercial, and military space assets, thereby creating a more comprehensive and interoperable space architecture. Moreover, to safeguard this joint-space picture, India must implement all essential security measures across ground-to-space, air-to-space, and intra-orbit communications. There is a lot to do, now that the Prime Minister has articulated the threat he sees emanating from his towering vantage point and the national need to ensure that the Indian growth story remains adaptable but unhindered. The future of India’s rise will depend not only upon economic growth rates or military expenditures, but on whether the Indian state can build resilient technological systems capable of functioning amid systemic global disorder. Space infrastructure increasingly underpins banking systems, telecommunications, navigation, climate monitoring, military operations, agricultural forecasting, disaster management, and supply-chain coordination. Any disruption to these systems during a prolonged international crisis would carry cascading domestic consequences. In that sense, the restructuring of ISRO is no longer merely an institutional question; it is becoming a civilisational necessity tied to India’s aspiration of emerging as a leading power during the Amrit Kaal. The coming decade may well determine whether India remains dependent on external technological architectures designed by competing powers, or whether it develops an autonomous and integrated space ecosystem capable of protecting national interests across an era of turbulence. (The writer is a Space and Emerging Technology Fellow at the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology, Observer Research Foundation, Mumbai. Views personal.)

AI in Sperm Sorting: An Unbiased Decision for A Better Outcome

Artificial Intelligence or AI is revolutionising fertility treatments of the future. The inclusion of AI enhances the accuracy, efficiency, and objectivity of sperm selection, hence potentially improving fertility outcomes by leaps and bounds. Traditionally, sperm sorting through manual methods is subjective to judgments. Processes like centrifugation and swim-up methods are used to separate sperm based on motility and morphology. Although they are effective, they have their limitations, leading to human errors that affect the success rates of fertility treatment. For instance, studies have shown that traditional sperm sorting techniques can have variability in success rates, with reported live birth rates ranging between 15 per cent to 25 per cent per cycle depending on the method and quality of sperm. Hence the introduction of AI helps in maintaining consistency in evaluations of sperm, using the same data set for every sample which leads to better judgments.


Automation and Standardisation- Automation of sperm selection and also introduction of AI in the process have improved the results in ART. AI-assisted sperm selection improves the accuracy in choosing high-quality sperm for fertilisation purposes, and also, pregnancy and live birth rates might be improved. Technologies like Intracytoplasmic Morphologically Selected Sperm Injection along with AI ensure the chances of pregnancies increase by about 10-20 per cent compared to the standard procedures. AI and Automation will decrease time taken to analyze sperm and increase opportunities to select better sperm with DNA integrity for better development and higher success rates in embryo selection. These processes ensure that the sperm selection process follows consistent criteria, reducing variability in outcomes caused by human error.


Analysing Complex Data for Better Outcomes- AI plays a crucial in improving IVF outcomes by analysing complex data and providing tailored recommendations. AI-driven tools and models such as those on SpOvum.ai point towards an opportunity to optimise ovarian stimulation decisions by assessing patient characteristics and follicle growth patterns. A study revealed that the use of AI in IVF improved egg yield and reduced medication costs. AI enables fertility specialists to make data-driven choices, improving overall IVF success rates and streamlining treatment processes.


Reducing Human Error- AI models can continuously learn and refine their performance by being trained on newer data. This adaptability ensures the technology remains unbiased and up-to-date with the latest scientific insights into sperm quality and fertility success rates. Studies have shown that AI-driven sperm sorting can decrease human-related errors by up to 25 per cent, improving sperm selection quality in terms of morphology and motility.


Reduction of Sperm Damage- The new AI-driven sperm sorting techniques also include microfluidic systems that are known to exhibit several advantages over the most commonly used conventional method, which is centrifugation. Traditional centrifugation methods, such as density gradient centrifugation, also cause severe oxidative stress and DNA fragmentation of the sperm because of the very high mechanical forces involved. The AI-infused microfluidic sorting minimises this damage significantly by involving gentler processes that mimic the natural pathway of sperm selection. The studies show that the process of microfluidic sorting decreases DNA fragmentation in sperm, which gives improved opportunities for success for IVF. For example, DNA fragmentation is 20 percent lower in sperm sorted using microfluidic processes than in traditional processing methods.


AI is bound to play an increasingly definitive role in fertility treatments, which will improve the outcomes for couples experiencing infertility.


(The author is a Co-Founder & CEO at SpOvum® Technologies. Views personal.)

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