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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

Annasaheb Patil: A Lifelong Advocate for Workers’ Rights

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

Annasaheb Patil

Annasaheb Pandurang Patil, a member of the Maharashtra Legislative Council, made significant contributions to the uplifting of scattered workers in Mumbai. For this reason, he is regarded as the architect of the progress of the Maratha and Mathadi workers in Maharashtra. Annasaheb Patil proposed a simple yet broad definition of a `Maratha,’ stating that every person residing in Maharashtra and standing for its defence is a Maratha. With this ideology, he established the Mathadi Workers Union and the All India Maratha Federation.

When Annasaheb Patil arrived in Mumbai from his native village, Mandrulkole in Patan Taluka, he began his career as a worker. At that time, workers in Mumbai were facing dire conditions, and a majority of them were Marathas. Annasaheb Patil believed that workers needed to experience both economic and social progress. He deeply studied their issues and began organising them, forming the Mathadi Workers Union, formally known as the Maharashtra State Mathadi Transport and General Workers Union. This became one of the largest labour unions in the state.

At the time, most labour unions were led by communists, but Annasaheb Patil rejected their ideologies, instead building a union based on Indigenous principles. He organised protests and movements, putting forward workers’ demands for better wages, healthcare, and basic rights for workers before the government. His relentless work eventually bore fruit, and he became the guiding force for workers.

Annasaheb Patil’s efforts resonated with the government. The then-Chief Minister, Yashwantrao Chavan, addressed the demands put forth by Patil, and on June 5, 1969, the Mathadi Workers Act was enacted in Maharashtra. This legislation brought joy and relief to the workers, improving their quality of life. Due to this act, facilities such as hospitals, consumer societies, housing through CIDCO, and educational and medical services were made available to Mathadi workers. Patil’s contribution to their welfare was pivotal.

Today, the issue of Maratha reservation is a significant topic in Maharashtra. Annasaheb Patil, the father of the Maratha reservation movement, made sure that his demands were reasonable and did not disturb social unity. His image is revered across Maharashtra for this reason.

Annasaheb Patil worked tirelessly for the welfare of Mathadi workers, most of whom were Marathas. He united the 12 Balutedars and 18 Pagadi communities, forming various organisations under the All India Maratha Federation. His leadership earned him widespread respect, and on July 8, 1980, he became a member of the Legislative Council.

During this time, the demand for Maratha reservations based on economic criteria was gaining traction. Annasaheb Patil toured Maharashtra while advocating for this cause. He resolved to lead a protest march to the Legislative Assembly. As an MLA in the Congress government, Patil, along with Advocate Shashikant Pawar, led a massive procession from Azad Maidan, Mumbai, on March 22, 1982. The sight of the marchers carrying Shivaji Maharaj’s saffron flag caught the attention of the citizens of Mumbai.

Annasaheb Patil submitted a list of nine demands to the then Chief Minister, Babasaheb Bhosale. Realising that the demand for reservation would not be considered, he declared that if justice were not served to the Maratha community, he would not live to see the next sunrise. True to his word, he ended his life on March 23, 1982, leaving an indelible mark on the state.

Annasaheb Patil devoted his life to the progress of Mathadi workers, raising their issues before the government and improving their living conditions. His efforts for the Maratha reservation and social justice brought attention to the problems faced by the community. His life was a testament to the struggle for the welfare of society. Rightfully, he is remembered as the father of the Maratha reservation movement and the architect of Maratha upliftment.

On his birth anniversary, we humbly pay tribute to the sacred memory of Annasaheb Patil.

(The writer is a BJP member of Maharashtra Legislative Council. Views personal.)

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