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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to...

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to reconsider its monetary policy, proving that climate shocks are now dictating everyday financial realities. ​ For decades, economists and policymakers have anxiously tracked the Indian monsoon, relying on rain gauges and reservoir levels to forecast agricultural output and inflation. However, HSBC’s analysis reveals a startling paradigm shift: tracking rising temperatures has now become a far more accurate method for predicting food inflation than observing traditional rainfall patterns. As average surface temperatures breach historical thresholds, the sensitivity of food prices to extreme heat has increased dramatically. During El Niño years, the probability of severe temperature spikes is now significantly higher than the chances of a rainfall deficit. These intensifying spikes mean the thermometer has become a far more vital forecasting tool for the central bank than the rain gauge. ​ The effects of this warming planet are cascading through various walks of life, starting at the very roots of the agricultural sector. Intense and frequent heatwaves are no longer just wilting delicate, perishable crops like fruits and vegetables, which have traditionally been highly vulnerable to sudden temperature fluctuations. The soaring mercury is now directly threatening the resilience of durable staple crops, including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, and sugar. When these crucial crops fail to withstand the intensifying heat, the immediate fallout is a sharp surge in food prices. While robust granaries might offer a temporary buffer, the overarching trend points to persistent agricultural distress, threatening food security and pushing the financial burden directly onto the plates of ordinary citizens. Complex Web ​This climate-induced disruption is creating a complex web of challenges for the national economy. The HSBC report predicts that the combination of El Niño-driven temperature shocks and global energy pressures could push headline inflation to an average of 5.6 percent in the 2026-27 financial year. This overlapping environmental and economic crisis leaves the Reserve Bank of India in a precarious position. To combat the inflationary heat, the central bank is projected to deliver two interest rate hikes between late 2026 and early 2027, ultimately pushing the repo rate to 5.75 percent. However, the central bank must tread carefully, as these relentless climate shocks are simultaneously dragging down the nation's economic momentum, with GDP growth projections downgraded from a robust 7.4 percent to a sluggish 6 percent. ​ Ultimately, the heaviest toll of this shifting climate is borne by the most vulnerable segments of society. The intersection of severe weather events, rising food costs, and tightening economic policies strikes hardest at the informal sector. Rural households, small agricultural businesses, and daily wage earners find their livelihoods increasingly squeezed by extreme weather forces entirely out of their control. The warming climate is fundamentally changing the drivers of India’s economic growth, turning environmental predictability into a luxury of the past. As policymakers grapple with these twin shocks of heat and inflation, it is evident that climate change has firmly rooted itself in every facet of Indian life.

Annasaheb Patil: A Lifelong Advocate for Workers’ Rights

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

Annasaheb Patil

Annasaheb Pandurang Patil, a member of the Maharashtra Legislative Council, made significant contributions to the uplifting of scattered workers in Mumbai. For this reason, he is regarded as the architect of the progress of the Maratha and Mathadi workers in Maharashtra. Annasaheb Patil proposed a simple yet broad definition of a `Maratha,’ stating that every person residing in Maharashtra and standing for its defence is a Maratha. With this ideology, he established the Mathadi Workers Union and the All India Maratha Federation.

When Annasaheb Patil arrived in Mumbai from his native village, Mandrulkole in Patan Taluka, he began his career as a worker. At that time, workers in Mumbai were facing dire conditions, and a majority of them were Marathas. Annasaheb Patil believed that workers needed to experience both economic and social progress. He deeply studied their issues and began organising them, forming the Mathadi Workers Union, formally known as the Maharashtra State Mathadi Transport and General Workers Union. This became one of the largest labour unions in the state.

At the time, most labour unions were led by communists, but Annasaheb Patil rejected their ideologies, instead building a union based on Indigenous principles. He organised protests and movements, putting forward workers’ demands for better wages, healthcare, and basic rights for workers before the government. His relentless work eventually bore fruit, and he became the guiding force for workers.

Annasaheb Patil’s efforts resonated with the government. The then-Chief Minister, Yashwantrao Chavan, addressed the demands put forth by Patil, and on June 5, 1969, the Mathadi Workers Act was enacted in Maharashtra. This legislation brought joy and relief to the workers, improving their quality of life. Due to this act, facilities such as hospitals, consumer societies, housing through CIDCO, and educational and medical services were made available to Mathadi workers. Patil’s contribution to their welfare was pivotal.

Today, the issue of Maratha reservation is a significant topic in Maharashtra. Annasaheb Patil, the father of the Maratha reservation movement, made sure that his demands were reasonable and did not disturb social unity. His image is revered across Maharashtra for this reason.

Annasaheb Patil worked tirelessly for the welfare of Mathadi workers, most of whom were Marathas. He united the 12 Balutedars and 18 Pagadi communities, forming various organisations under the All India Maratha Federation. His leadership earned him widespread respect, and on July 8, 1980, he became a member of the Legislative Council.

During this time, the demand for Maratha reservations based on economic criteria was gaining traction. Annasaheb Patil toured Maharashtra while advocating for this cause. He resolved to lead a protest march to the Legislative Assembly. As an MLA in the Congress government, Patil, along with Advocate Shashikant Pawar, led a massive procession from Azad Maidan, Mumbai, on March 22, 1982. The sight of the marchers carrying Shivaji Maharaj’s saffron flag caught the attention of the citizens of Mumbai.

Annasaheb Patil submitted a list of nine demands to the then Chief Minister, Babasaheb Bhosale. Realising that the demand for reservation would not be considered, he declared that if justice were not served to the Maratha community, he would not live to see the next sunrise. True to his word, he ended his life on March 23, 1982, leaving an indelible mark on the state.

Annasaheb Patil devoted his life to the progress of Mathadi workers, raising their issues before the government and improving their living conditions. His efforts for the Maratha reservation and social justice brought attention to the problems faced by the community. His life was a testament to the struggle for the welfare of society. Rightfully, he is remembered as the father of the Maratha reservation movement and the architect of Maratha upliftment.

On his birth anniversary, we humbly pay tribute to the sacred memory of Annasaheb Patil.

(The writer is a BJP member of Maharashtra Legislative Council. Views personal.)

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