As the Game of Trade Continues…

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”, said Vladimir Lenin. 

From the "Gate of Heavenly Peace," the Red Army, afflicted with ‘peace disease’, marched forth without any seasoned military chief. The army flaunted its fancy military kit, much of which is not "combat-tested" or has faltered against India's military might, very recently. (Operation Sindoor - naam toh suna hi hoga!) Yet, their red flag fluttered high as the leaders from Russia, Iran and North Korea, all forbidden by the West, stood united in Xi’s Forbidden City. Sanctions, asset freezes, tariff threats, not even the American B-2 Spirit, nothing could quell what the West termed "Axis of Upheaval”. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit this month showcased the folly of Trumpian policies and highlighted “multilateralism” as the key to winning the global game.

As the Trump tariffs spark a new global (dis)order, Xi introduced a framework for global governance. At the SCO summit, he lectured on “sovereign equality” and “international rule of law,” all while his navy patrolled the disputed South China sea, around Taiwan. When countries threatened by Trump’s trade war are flocking to China, India, cautious as ever, is recalibrating its omnidirectional strategy to protect its sovereignty and independence from the hegemonies of both - the democratic states and the communist world.

Prime Minister Modi made a strategic choice to attend the summit in China, while letting the media buzz about his refusal to take phone calls from the US President. Before heading to the Chinese summit, he visited Japan and notably skipped a subsequent Chinese parade commemorating Japan’s defeat in the Second World War. In his compelling speech at the Japanese summit, PM Modi projected India as a “Talent Powerhouse” and reaffirmed India’s commitment to peace and “shared” prosperity. “We have political and economic stability and clear and predictable policies,” he stated, brilliantly summing up the current global trade challenges and India’s strengths, in just one simple sentence! He signed a “joint vision” agreement with Japan and secured strategic collaboration in key sectors including semiconductors, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, logistics, IT, defence and space. After this successful diplomatic manoeuvre, he travelled to China with strong hands. 

The SCO summit captured widespread attention, not merely because authoritarian regimes came together, but more significantly because the Prime Minister of the world’s largest democracy, India, took centre stage! Many mistakenly viewed this as India appeasing China. Clearly, they did not grasp the essence of Modi's speech.

At the Chinese summit, Prime Minister Modi paid no flattery like “I like President Xi, always have and always will,” typical of Trump’s speech. PM Modi redefined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, SCO, as: Security, Connectivity, and Opportunity. From the Chinese platform, he strongly condemned terrorism and proposed enhanced cooperation to counter "Al-Qaeda” and its affiliates. PM Modi asserted that “connectivity that by-passes sovereignty, ultimately loses both trust and meaning,” subtly critiquing China’s String-of-Pearls encircling India and road initiative that has entrapped nations in the Chinese debt. He also took an opportunity to call for UN reform and emphasised the importance of multilateralism. 

Recent agreements with countries like the UK, Japan, and Germany signal Prime Minister Modi’s focus on medium - to long-term security and economic gains. Rather than just plugging short-term trade gaps, he aims to modernise Indian industries with advanced foreign technologies, enhance logistics, strengthen defence partnerships and create meaningful job opportunities for young Indian brains in ageing countries like Japan, Italy and Germany, where the labour force is tightening. 

Meanwhile, the world witnessed how the European Union soft-soaped Trump on several occasions for stepping up military aid, to intensify sanctions so the Russian war ends, or to get the best bargain on trade. But Daddy was not impressed. President Trump wants the bloc to dilute its digital laws and forgo its tax revenues, so US companies can freely exploit the European market. He wants the EU to import US energy and stop buying Russian fuel. The US is now calling on the bloc to impose 100% tariffs on China, a measure that Trump could not undertake. The Chinese magnetic pressure is immense, I say. Trump has ruled out any deployment of US military in Ukraine and instead is now pushing the Europeans to send their troops without any backup from the US treasury. Now, the EU is required to pay for its own defence as well as for the peacekeepers in Ukraine. Recently, the bloc allocated more than 2% of its GDP for defence spending, though the mounting public debt remains a big concern for all of them. The French government has collapsed, and the rest of Europe shall follow if it fails to change its foreign and defence policies and diversify its economy. Being US allies or depending on Daddy's money for a long time is placing a heavy burden on the EU. The Europeans have only two options: either walk away from unilateral trade deals or continue repaying the past privileges in a false hope of a future peace. 

Despite a growing rift with friends and allies, chaotic wars that refuse to subside, nothing could make Trump reassess his policies. Given the country’s large population, abundant natural resources and wealth, Trumpian excessive tariffs and the self-centric policies will not bend. They will mellow down only if their domestic market signals distress or the US Supreme Court intervenes.

Que sera, sera, whatever will be, will be, but one thing is sure, as S. Jaishankar says, “When India looks at the world, it does so confidently.”

(The writer is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)