Battleground of the Deep: Geopolitical Storm in South China Sea

In his splendidly evocative 2014 book Asia’s Cauldron, master geo-strategist Robert D. Kaplan begins his geopolitical study of the South China Sea with a dazzling prologue on the ancient kingdom of Champa, its Hindu legacy.

In his trademark lapidary prose which has come to define his many works, Kaplan observes that Vietnam’s nearly one-thousand-mile-long coast lay astride two great civilizations: those of India and China with the South China Sea being “the maritime heart” of the Indo-Pacific region.

Long before the Cold War fault lines of North and South Vietnam, Kaplan notes there was a similar one in ancient times with the Sinicized Dai Viet, which established itself in Hanoi in North Vietnam clashing with Hindu Champa in the South. Dai Viet ultimately gobbled up Hindu Champa.

Fittingly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s historic visit to Brunei this week resurrects the legacy of Champa and the Indian influence to counter a truculent China in the Indo-Pacific and the flashpoint that is the South China Sea.

His meeting coincides with heightened tensions between China and its neighbours in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly the Philippines and Malaysia.

Last week, a Chinese coast guard vessel’s ramming of the Philippine flagship BRP Teresa Magbanua brought the confrontational environment in the South China Sea region into sharp relief. The Philippines has intensified its maritime patrols, only to face increasing provocations from China. The aerial domain is also becoming contentious, with the Philippines’ increased air patrols prompting warnings from Chinese think tanks about potential clashes.

Meanwhile, China recently demanded that Malaysia halt its oil exploration activities near the Luconia Shoals citing encroachments on its areas marked by the so-called ‘Ten-Dash Line’. This, despite Malaysia’s efforts to placate China, including remarks by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim emphasizing mutual benefit.

In this charged diplomatic atmosphere, India’s role comes as a deus ex machina in defusing tensions and rallying the Southeast Asian nations to counter China. During his meeting in Brunei, PM Modi reiterated India’s support for The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) centrality and peaceful resolution of disputes. The trip, marked by discussions on strengthening defence ties, exploring cooperation in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and renewable energies, and enhancing long-standing space partnerships, is indicative of India’s intent to deepen its engagement with Southeast Asia to counterbalance China’s domineering influence in the region.

The South China Sea, covering approximately 3.5 million square kilometres, is one of the world’s busiest maritime trade routes which accounts for a third of global shipping traffic.

Its resource-rich waters, with vast reserves of oil and natural gas buried beneath its seabed, make it a prime geopolitical prize – a veritable waterborne ‘Constantinople’ to which China, along with Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam are among the seven claimants to parts of the South China Sea.

For nearly two decades, China’s aggressive assertion over the South China Sea has been marked by a campaign of artificial island-building, military fortification, and assertive maritime patrols. Beijing justifies its expansive claims with the so-called ‘Nine-Dash Line’ - a vaguely defined demarcation that cuts into the exclusive economic zones of several Southeast Asian nations, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. These nations, along with the self-governing territory of Taiwan, find themselves in a precarious position as they confront a rising China intent on rewriting the rules of maritime conduct.

India, under its 2014 Act East Policy, has increased its engagement in the region, highlighting the importance of freedom of navigation and the rule of law, including adherence to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). By aligning with ASEAN nations like Brunei, India reinforces the call for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, advocating for a rules-based order and peaceful resolution of disputes — a veiled critique of China’s expansionism.

The policy’s ten-year milestone was marked by increased diplomatic engagements, including visits from the prime ministers of Vietnam and Malaysia to India, and President Droupadi Murmu’s trips to Fiji, New Zealand, and Timor-Leste.

In the midst of the China-U.S. rivalry, as Southeast Asian nations struggle to navigate tensions. But ASEAN’s long-sought Code of Conduct for the South China Sea continues to be stalled by diverging member priorities and chiefly by China’s reluctance to compromise.

Political scientist John Mearsheimer, in his classic work, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics claims that global hegemony is made difficult by the “stopping power of water.” As tensions in the South China Sea persist, it will need more than water to halt China’s hegemony. That counter could be in the form of India’s Act East strategy with its emphasis on a rules-based order.