Can Fadnavis Keep Maharashtra’s Fractious Coalition Together?

Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has made a career out of navigating Maharashtra’s treacherous political currents. In 2014, he became the state’s second-youngest Chief Minister at 44, ushering in an era of infrastructure development and economic reforms. But his meteoric rise came to an abrupt halt in 2019 when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) fell short of a majority. Undeterred, Fadnavis assumed the role of Leader of the Opposition, waiting for his moment to strike.

That came in 2022 when he abetted Eknath Shinde’s coup that toppled Uddhav Thackeray’s MVA government. Though Fadnavis had to play second fiddle to Shinde by taking on the post of Deputy CM, he bounced back after the Assembly polls last year to reclaim the Chief Minister’s chair after leading the Maharashtra BJP to a stunning victory in the Assembly polls last year.

But his third term has been anything but smooth. The Mahayuti coalition (comprising the BJP, Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party) won a remarkable 230 out of 288 seats in the Assembly election. Yet, political discord and governance challenges have dogged its first two months. Even before the dust of electoral triumph settled, cracks began to show.

Fadnavis today faces the unenviable task of managing a coalition brimming with competing ambitions, personal rivalries, and deep-seated distrust.

One of the earliest signs of trouble emerged over the delicate issue of power-sharing. Shinde, who had warmed the Chief Minister’s chair for two years before making way for Fadnavis, was reluctant to settle for the Deputy Chief Minister’s post. After weeks of tense backchannel negotiations, a compromise was hammered out, but not before the media and opposition gleefully highlighted the discontent within the ruling coalition.

If managing coalition partners is one battle, keeping the administration scandal-free is another. Allegations of corruption have surfaced within the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA), which Shinde has controlled for three consecutive governments. French engineering firm Systra has accused officials of demanding “undue benefits,” delaying payments, and favoring particular contractors. Given Shinde’s oversight of the MMRDA, the controversy places him squarely in the opposition’s crosshairs.

Then there is the ethical minefield. Agriculture Minister Manikrao Kokate’s conviction in a decades-old forgery case has triggered calls for his resignation, while Cabinet Minister Dhananjay Munde is in hot water after his close aide was arrested for the murder of a village sarpanch. The opposition is sharpening its knives, sensing an opportunity to tarnish Fadnavis’s promise of clean governance.

If the Congress has found its voice after years of listlessness, it is partly because the Mahayuti government has given it ample ammunition. State Congress chief Harshwardhan Sapkal has been relentless in demanding the resignation of Kokate and Munde, accusing the administration of shielding tainted ministers. While a weak opposition helped Fadnavis buy time in his first two months, the tides are shifting.

Meanwhile, the balancing act between coalition partners grows precarious. The BJP remains the dominant force, but Shinde and Pawar each have their own political compulsions. Shinde, eager to prove that breaking away from Uddhav Thackeray was not a historical blunder, needs a tight grip on governance. Pawar, whose party’s split has already diluted his brand, is under pressure to stay relevant. Fadnavis must manage both without letting them overshadow him, a task akin to herding tigers.

Yet, despite the turbulence, Fadnavis retains an advantage. His proximity to the BJP’s central leadership is no secret, and Shinde himself remains a favourite in Delhi. At a recent swearing-in ceremony in the capital, Prime Minister Narendra Modi acknowledged only two people in a room full of politicians: Andhra Pradesh’s Deputy Chief Minister Pawan Kalyan and Eknath Shinde. That moment did not go unnoticed in political circles.

But Fadnavis’s real test lies outside the corridors of power. Maharashtra’s economic worries are mounting. The state’s financial deficit has ballooned, ambitious welfare schemes threaten fiscal prudence, and new investments have been slow to materialize. Unemployment, a ticking time bomb, continues to rise. The brewing Maratha reservation agitation, spearheaded by activist Manoj Jarange Patil, could become a flashpoint if not handled delicately.

Then there is the spectre of upcoming municipal and local body elections. If the coalition stumbles in these contests, it will embolden opposition forces and weaken the Mahayuti’s credibility. The challenge is not just winning elections but keeping the alliance harmonious while doing so.

Fadnavis has always played the long game. He survived political exile in 2019, outmanoeuvred rivals in 2022, and now finds himself at the helm once again. But Maharashtra’s political landscape is an unpredictable beast. Two months into his third term, the road ahead is fraught with obstacles. To steer Maharashtra through them, Fadnavis must do what he does best: walk the tightrope, without ever looking down.