Can the SCO Islamabad Summit Improve Indo-Pak Relations?

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), established in 2001 began with China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, evolving into one of the world’s largest trans-regional economic and security organisations. India and Pakistan joined in 2017.

The upcoming meeting in Islamabad has the potential to thaw relations between India and Pakistan. As Pakistan assumes the rotating chairmanship of the SCO CHG, it is set to host a series of high-level meetings, culminating in the October summit. For both nations, the SCO provides a neutral venue to engage in dialogue amid heightened global scrutiny.

Jaishankar’s visit is the first by an Indian foreign minister to Pakistan since 2014. Over the last decade, relations have been hostile and marked by diplomatic disengagement, with the Kashmir issue remaining an intractable barrier to peace. Both countries have escalated their military postures and intensified their nationalistic rhetoric, especially following India’s revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status in 2019.

The upcoming visit to Islamabad may signal a shift in India’s approach toward Pakistan. It remains to be seen whether this trip is merely a diplomatic formality or if it has the potential to restart bilateral dialogue. The lack of confirmed meetings between Jaishankar and his Pakistani counterparts suggests that expectations should be tempered. Nonetheless, sending a senior official to Islamabad is noteworthy in the current geopolitical climate.

Pakistan is currently grappling with internal security threats, particularly in Balochistan and along the Afghanistan border. A recent surge in terrorist attacks has intensified Islamabad’s efforts to project stability before the summit. The deployment of the Pakistan Army, Rangers, and police under Article 245 of the Constitution to maintain order highlights the high stakes for the government. Successfully hosting the summit will enhance Pakistan’s diplomatic standing and help address some domestic challenges.

Engaging with the SCO remains essential for India to counterbalance China’s influence and carve out its sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific. The SCO’s focus on Central Asia allows India to strengthen its economic and security ties with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan in key energy markets and security frameworks. However, Jaishankar’s visit may be viewed with scepticism, particularly as Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares for key elections next year.

China’s growing presence in South Asia and its partnership with Pakistan complicate India’s strategy. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, has deepened economic and military ties between Islamabad and Beijing. For Pakistan, China, an ally, provides diplomatic cover in international forums, financial support, and military assistance. India, however, is concerned about China’s expanding footprint in South Asia amid rising tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Himalayas.

Beijing will likely welcome the prospect of reduced hostilities between India and Pakistan, given its broader regional ambitions. A stable South Asia serves China’s economic interests, particularly in ensuring the security of its investments in Pakistan and its energy corridors passing through Central Asia. Additionally, as a founding member of the SCO, China has a vested interest in ensuring the success of the upcoming summit in Islamabad.

However, China’s ties to Pakistan make it a partial actor in the India-Pakistan dispute. Nonetheless, its economic clout and strategic interests make it an influential stakeholder in any potential thaw between India and Pakistan.

Following Western sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine conflict, Moscow has sought to diversify its partnerships by increasingly turning to Asia. The SCO summit presents an opportunity for Russia to deepen its engagement and expand economic and security ties in the region. However, its role as a potential mediator in South Asian conflicts remains limited. Participation in the SCO allows India and Pakistan to project stability and leadership. Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad, while symbolically significant, may ultimately fall short of sparking meaningful dialogue. However, it does create a window—however small—for diplomatic engagement, which could set the stage for future talks.

The SCO summit in Islamabad may serve as a litmus test for the future trajectory of India-Pakistan relations. Will pragmatism prevail over entrenched hostilities, or will this opportunity for diplomacy be another missed chance for reconciliation? For world capitals like Washington, Beijing, and Moscow, the outcome of this summit will be closely monitored for its regional implications and broader impact on global geopolitics.

In a world increasingly defined by power competition, climate change, and economic uncertainty, South Asia’s stability is critical. The upcoming SCO summit could reduce tensions between India and Pakistan. Whether this leads to concrete action remains to be seen, but the opportunity is there—and the world will be watching.

(The writer is a senior journalist based in Islamabad. Views personal.)