China-Pakistan-Bangladesh Pact: New Challenge for India

The proposed joint trade and security agreement between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh poses significant challenges to India’s regional dominance. Driven by China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with Pakistan as a key partner through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Bangladesh has increased its economic ties with China, particularly in infrastructure and energy. This trilateral cooperation could counterbalance India’s influence, leading to strategic, economic, and security concerns. India faces potential military threats, disrupted trade routes, and strained diplomatic relations, especially in regional forums like SAARC and BIMSTEC.

The potential agreement also has significant political and diplomatic repercussions for India, particularly in its relations with Bangladesh and regional organizations. India’s relationship with Bangladesh has been a cornerstone of its regional policy, marked by cooperation on issues like border management, water sharing, and counter-terrorism. However, the proposed agreement could strain these ties, particularly if Bangladesh becomes more aligned with China and Pakistan. The potential for increased Chinese influence in Bangladesh’s domestic politics could lead to a shift in Dhaka’s foreign policy, making it less receptive to India’s concerns and more aligned with China’s strategic interests. This could complicate India’s efforts to resolve longstanding issues like the sharing of Teesta river waters and the management of the India-Bangladesh border.

In response to the potential joint trade and security agreement, India has several strategic, economic, and diplomatic options to consider. On the strategic front, India may need to reassess its military alliances and defence posture. Strengthening ties with the United States, Japan, and Australia, particularly within the Quad framework, could provide India with the necessary support to counterbalance the growing China-Pakistan-Bangladesh axis. India could also invest in advanced military technologies, such as missile defence systems, cyber capabilities, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), to enhance its deterrence capabilities. The expansion of India’s naval presence in the Indian Ocean, particularly through enhanced cooperation with countries like Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and the Seychelles, could help secure critical sea lanes and counter the Chinese presence in the region.

Economically, India could focus on diversifying its trade partners and strengthening its domestic markets. By expanding its trade ties with countries in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, India can reduce its dependence on traditional markets and mitigate the impact of any economic isolation in South Asia. India could also focus on boosting its manufacturing sector through initiatives like “Make in India” and “Atmanirbhar Bharat” (Self-Reliant India) to reduce its reliance on imports and enhance its global competitiveness. Building strategic economic partnerships, such as free trade agreements with key partners, could help India secure its position in global supply chains.

On the diplomatic front, India could seek to build stronger alliances with countries that share its concerns about China’s growing influence. By enhancing its engagement with countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, India can build a coalition that supports a free and open Indo-Pacific. India could also leverage its soft power, including its cultural diplomacy, humanitarian aid, and development assistance, to strengthen its ties with countries in South Asia and beyond. By presenting itself as a reliable partner that respects the sovereignty and independence of its neighbours, India can build goodwill and counter the narrative of Chinese dominance.

To counter the potential security threats posed by the agreement, India could enhance its intelligence capabilities and strengthen its counter-terrorism measures. This could involve increased surveillance along its borders, enhanced cooperation with international intelligence agencies, and greater investments in cybersecurity to protect critical infrastructure.

The proposed joint trade and security agreement between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh presents a complex challenge for India, with far-reaching implications for its strategic, economic, and diplomatic interests. While the agreement could potentially undermine India’s influence in South Asia, it also presents an opportunity for India to recalibrate its strategies and build stronger partnerships with like-minded countries. As the geopolitical landscape in South Asia continues to evolve, India must remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding its interests. By adopting a multifaceted approach that combines strategic, economic, and diplomatic initiatives, India can navigate the challenges posed by the potential agreement and continue to assert its role as a leading power in the region.

(The writer is a Senior Research Associate, Vishwa Samvad Kendra, Mumbai. Views personal.)