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By:

Sagari Gupta

24 March 2026 at 2:16:04 pm

SpaceX’s IPO and India’s Sovereignty

The record-breaking $1.75 trillion IPO underscores a new reality that nations which do not control critical digital infrastructure risk ceding part of their sovereignty. Last week, SpaceX listed on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, raising $75 billion at a staggering valuation of $1.75 trillion. That single offering surpassed Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record of $25.6 billion by a factor of three. India’s defence budget for FY 2025-26 was Rs. 6.81 lakh crore, approximately $78.57 billion, according to...

SpaceX’s IPO and India’s Sovereignty

The record-breaking $1.75 trillion IPO underscores a new reality that nations which do not control critical digital infrastructure risk ceding part of their sovereignty. Last week, SpaceX listed on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, raising $75 billion at a staggering valuation of $1.75 trillion. That single offering surpassed Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record of $25.6 billion by a factor of three. India’s defence budget for FY 2025-26 was Rs. 6.81 lakh crore, approximately $78.57 billion, according to the Union Budget. SpaceX raised the near-equivalent of that annual allocation in one day. The investors who participated were not buying into a rocket company. They were pricing control over satellite infrastructure, global internet access, launch capability, and an integrated AI platform at a level exceeding the GDP of most countries. Roughly 30 percent of the shares, worth approximately $22.5 billion, went to retail investors, three times the proportion typical of a US listing. India has no private entity in this category. What SpaceX actually controls Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet division, operated approximately 7,000 active satellites globally as of early 2026. It counts over nine million subscribers worldwide, and following a 2026 merger, SpaceX also owns xAI, the developer of the Grok AI system. A company that controls satellite connectivity, launch capacity, and a frontier AI model occupies a position no regulator has previously had to classify. It is not a telecom operator, not a defence contractor, and not a technology platform. It is all three at once, under common ownership. In June 2025, SpaceX received authorisation from India’s Department of Telecommunications, followed by a licence from IN-SPACe in July 2025. As of June 2026, Starlink’s commercial operations in India remain pending, with the company in active discussions with the Government of India on security clearances, a process slowed by concerns linked to Starlink terminal use in the Iran conflict. That delay is itself revealing. A foreign company’s service continuity in India depends on negotiations that India does not fully control. Satellite communications, launch systems, and AI-integrated data infrastructure are the functional equivalents of roads and electricity grids in a digital economy. States that built those grids in the twentieth century retained control over access, pricing, and service continuity. States that depend on foreign corporations for digital infrastructure in the twenty-first century do not. The dependence question is already live for India India’s digital public infrastructure, covering Aadhaar, UPI, and the Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission, processes billions of transactions monthly. Aadhaar covers nearly the entire adult population, and UPI carries the bulk of India’s retail digital payments. The system’s design is sound: public architecture, state-controlled data governance, open standards. The next connectivity layer is the problem. TRAI data shows rural internet penetration at 44.2 percent as of March 2024, with only 3.8 percent of rural households connected through high-speed fixed infrastructure. Approximately 630 million Indians remain offline, with primary barriers being awareness, affordability, and limited local-language content, according to the Kantar ICUBE 2024 survey. That gap will not close through terrestrial fibre rollout alone. Satellite broadband, through Starlink, Eutelsat OneWeb, or Amazon’s Project Kuiper, will carry a large share of that load over the next decade. None of these are Indian entities. Their pricing decisions, service continuity choices, and data routing practices sit outside Indian jurisdiction. A farmer in Chhattisgarh receiving crop advisory data through a satellite connection does not know that a pricing decision made in California affects whether that signal arrives tomorrow. She will notice only when it stops. Foreign private capital has built connectivity infrastructure in India before. Reliance Jio brought down mobile data costs after its 2016 launch, extending internet access to hundreds of millions of Indians who had not been able to afford it before. Jio’s rollout also created large-scale domestic employment in network maintenance, retail, and customer service, jobs that remain within India’s economy. Private investment in connectivity is not a threat to sovereignty. Structural Gap The difference with SpaceX is structural. Jio operates under Indian law, pays taxes in India, employs Indian engineers, and answers to Indian regulators when disputes arise. Its towers and fibre sit on Indian soil. Starlink’s constellation orbits at 550 kilometres, outside any single national jurisdiction. Under the Telecommunications Act 2023, existing Starlink operators in India continue under the legacy Unified Licence framework, with their licences remaining valid. But no Indian regulatory instrument contains a binding service continuity obligation for satellite operators. If Starlink suspends Indian operations, no domestic legal mechanism compels continuation or requires a managed transition for the users left without service. The $1.75 trillion valuation amplifies this structural gap. India’s external debt stood at $736.3 billion at end-March 2025, according to the Reserve Bank of India. SpaceX’s market valuation now exceeds India’s total external debt by a wide margin. A corporation at that scale does not face the same regulatory friction as a domestic operator. It does not need to negotiate from a position of dependence. India’s satellite communications framework, updated through the Indian Space Policy 2023 and the Telecommunications Act 2023, governs licensing and spectrum allocation in detail. It does not contain binding service continuity or exit-transition obligations for foreign satellite operators. That gap needs closing through explicit licence conditions before Starlink and its competitors reach commercial scale in India. India’s Semiconductor Mission has made genuine progress. Pilot production started in three plants in 2025, and the government confirmed that four plants commenced commercial production in 2026. Kaynes Semicon’s OSAT unit in Sanand reached commercial production in March 2026. India also inaugurated its first 3-nanometer chip design centres in Noida and Bengaluru in 2025, a step toward design capability even as fabrication capacity remains limited. These are real milestones, not announcements. They do not yet constitute a domestic supply chain for the advanced chips needed for satellite infrastructure, AI systems, or next-generation communications hardware. India’s domestic semiconductor market was approximately $45-50 billion in 2024-25, according to industry estimates cited by the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology. Closing the gap between consumption and domestic production is a decade-long task requiring sustained capital commitment. India’s competition framework does not treat foreign satellite infrastructure concentration as a market power question. The Competition Commission of India has a clear mandate over domestic pricing and merger activity. It has no instrument to act when a foreign entity’s control over orbital infrastructure creates de facto monopoly conditions for remote connectivity within India. That regulatory gap needs explicit legislative attention before dependence deepens further. Market Signals SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion valuation is not a data point about one company. It is a market signal about what global capital considers most valuable in 2026: not oil fields or shipping lanes, but control over the systems through which economies communicate, compute, and transact. India entered the hydrocarbon era as a net importer and spent decades building the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and domestic refining capacity to reduce that dependence. The programme continues to expand today, a reminder that infrastructure sovereignty is an ongoing commitment. The response was slow and expensive. It was also the right call. The digital infrastructure era has well and truly arrived. India is already a net importer of the connectivity and computing systems that will define the next phase of its economic growth. The SpaceX IPO makes the scale of that dependence visible in a single number. And policymakers do not have decades to respond this time. (The writer is an independent public policy researcher. Views personal.)

Chronicle of a Kidnapping Foretold

America’s seizure of Nicolás Maduro may please his victims but it tramples the law and revives the worst habits of oil imperialism.

President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Venezuela, abduct its president and temporarily run the country marks a striking departure for a politician who once derided foreign adventurism and mocked his predecessors for mistaking regime change for strategy.


Nicolás Maduro is no saint. He has presided over a devastated petrostate, has stolen elections, crushed dissent and overseen the worst mass migration crisis in Latin American history. Eight million Venezuelans have fled. Many inside the country are celebrating his capture. And they are not wrong to feel relief as Maduro has forfeited moral sympathy long ago.


But Trump’s action sets a precedent no democracy can afford to applaud. America’s operation in Caracas marks a dangerous descent that resurrects some of the West’s ugliest imperial habits dressed up as ‘law enforcement.’


Flagrant Violation

No principle of international law permits the arrest of a sitting head of a sovereign state by another country’s armed forces. Article 2(4) of the United Nations Charter explicitly prohibits the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state. That rule was designed precisely to prevent powerful countries from enforcing their moral preferences through missiles and special forces.


Article 2(4) did not emerge from abstraction or idealism. The men who drafted it in San Francisco in 1945 had lived through three decades in which powerful states repeatedly claimed the right to enforce moral, civilisational or security preferences beyond their borders and had nearly destroyed the world in the process.


The rule was a direct reaction to the failures of the interwar order. The League of Nations had condemned aggression but never outlawed war itself. States were still free to cloak invasions as ‘police actions’ or ‘civilising missions.’ Japan marched into Manchuria in 1931 claiming to restore order. Fascist Italy invaded Ethiopia in 1935 under the banner of imperial destiny. Nazi Germany annexed Austria and dismembered Czechoslovakia in the name of ethnic self-determination.


The League, lacking both enforcement mechanisms and a hard prohibition on force, failed spectacularly. The drafters of the UN Charter were determined not to repeat that error. At Dumbarton Oaks and later in San Francisco, smaller states in particular pushed for a bright-line rule.


They feared that without an absolute ban, ‘exceptions’ would always be defined by the powerful. The result was Article 2(4) - a sweeping prohibition on both the use and the threat of force against another state’s territorial integrity or political independence. It was deliberately blunt with no reference being made to motives, morality or outcomes. Aggression was to be illegal regardless of intent.


The only explicit exceptions were self-defence under Article 51, and enforcement action authorised collectively by the Security Council. Anything else was meant to be outlawed.


Unilateral moral enforcement - the idea that a powerful state could decide another government was criminal, illegitimate or intolerable and act accordingly - was deliberately excluded.


Operation Overthrow

For a president who has made a career of railing against the Republican ‘neoconservatives’ of the late 20th century, Trump’s foreign policy is beginning to rhyme conspicuously with that of his predecessors.


In 1983, then U.S. President Ronald Reagan ordered the invasion of the tiny Caribbean Island of Grenada, whose Marxist government he declared illegitimate after an internal coup and the killing of its Prime Minister, Maurice Bishop. ‘Operation Urgent Fury’ was justified on the multiple grounds of the protection of American medical students, the restoration of democracy and prevention of Soviet-Cuban expansion. In practice it was chaotic, with poor inter-service coordination while civilian casualties were underplayed.


And yet, it succeeded politically as a friendly government was installed while the episode was sold as proof that America had overcome the ‘Vietnam syndrome.’


Grenada normalised the idea that Washington could unilaterally decide a government’s legitimacy, intervene militarily and then retrofit a legal and moral rationale. Trump has echoed that logic almost verbatim in Venezuela, dismissing Maduro as illegitimate and treating sovereignty as a conditional privilege.


Six years later, George H.W. Bush went further. The invasion of Panama in 1989 to depose Manuel Noriega (like Maduro, wanted on American drug-trafficking charges) was framed as law enforcement on a grand scale. Noriega was seized, flown to Miami and tried in a federal court. The United States installed his replacement and declared mission accomplished. Few doubted Noriega’s criminality. Fewer still asked whether abducting a foreign head of state under cover of war might one day look less exceptional than advertised. Small wonder that the black comedic undercurrents in the Noriega episode provided rich fodder for John le Carre’s savage espionage satire ‘The Tailor of Panama’ (1996).


Distorted Policy

Venezuela’s petroleum has distorted foreign policy for more than a century. American and British firms helped turn it into one of the world’s richest oil exporters in the early 20th century, while insulating themselves from its politics. When Hugo Chávez sought to rewrite that bargain, Washington oscillated between hostility and intrigue, including a flirtation with the abortive 2002 coup. Maduro inherited Chávez’s wreckage and compounded it through repression and incompetence. Today, Trump boasts that “very large” American corporations will exploit Venezuela’s oil. Rarely has imperialism announced itself so openly.


In 1953, the United States and Britain overthrew Iran’s elected prime minister, Mohammad Mossadeq, after he nationalised the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. The coup – ‘Operation Ajax’ - was planned in London and Washington, authorised by Winston Churchill and Dwight Eisenhower, and executed by the CIA’s Kermit Roosevelt Jr. in concert with Britain’s MI6. The operation relied on bribed politicians, paid street mobs, forged newspaper stories and the quiet mobilisation of royalist officers. The result was that the highly-strung Mossadeq was arrested and the Shah, who had briefly fled, was restored and transformed from constitutional monarch into autocrat.


Yet, while the coup secured Western access to Iranian oil and demonstrated the efficacy of covert regime change, it hollowed out Iran’s political legitimacy. The Shah’s rule, propped up by oil revenues and secret police, lasted a quarter-century before collapsing in the Islamic revolution of 1979.


France offers even starker reminders of how Western democracies have treated sovereignty when resources and influence were at stake.


In 1961 Patrice Lumumba, the democratically elected prime minister of Congo, was abducted, brutalised and murdered with the complicity of Belgian officers and the tacit blessing of Paris and Washington. Lumumba’s ‘crime’ was that he threatened Western control over Congo’s vast mineral wealth.


Throughout the Cold War and after, France perfected a system of covert interventions and renditions across Africa by toppling leaders in Gabon, Côte d’Ivoire and Chad, installing pliant strongmen and removing troublesome ones under the doctrine of Françafrique.


What distinguishes the Maduro operation is not its audacity but its candour. A sitting president has been seized in peacetime and its justification is offered openly.


If criminality alone voids sovereignty, then power and not law decides who may be abducted. America has long insisted that it does not recognise the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court over its own citizens. It now appears equally uninterested in the court’s protections for others.


Defenders of the operation argue that extraordinary evil requires extraordinary measures. Maduro stole elections. He aligned himself with Iran, Russia and China. His regime trafficked drugs, gold and people. That is all true. But international order is not sustained by moral arithmetic. It rests on rules that restrain power precisely when restraint feels inconvenient.


Latin America understands this instinctively. The region’s history is scarred by interventions launched in the name of democracy and remembered as humiliation. Trump’s declaration that America will “run” Venezuela until a transition occurs resurrects the paternalism of a bygone era, when Washington treated the hemisphere as a managed zone. That some Venezuelans cheer does not make the act any less corrosive.

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