Cracks in the Sugar Bowl: Sharad Pawar’s Calculated Rejig in Western Maharashtra

As the state readies for local elections, the political veteran tightens his grip on a shrinking stronghold even as the Congress withers and rivals multiply

Maharashtra is preparing for a bruising electoral season. Over the next five months, voters will go to the polls to elect representatives to Zilla Parishads, Municipal Corporations and smaller Municipal Councils across the state. While much of the media's attention will be on how the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies fare, the more intriguing drama is unfolding behind the scenes and within the faction led by Sharad Pawar, the octogenarian patriarch of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP-SP) who is attempting to reassert control over western Maharashtra - the political turf he once ruled with an iron grip.

The recent reshuffle of the party’s state leadership is a case in point. For eight years, Jayant Patil, a seasoned MLA and former cabinet minister, held the post of Maharashtra NCP president. In an internal party meeting in Pune, Patil reportedly expressed his desire to step aside, arguing that the party needed to bring in new blood. Then, with no prior fanfare, news broke that Patil had resigned and that Shashikant Shinde would replace him. Yet, even as the reports spread, the party’s spokespeople scrambled to deny them. Jitendra Awhad, a senior NCP MLA, claimed no such resignation had occurred. Supriya Sule, Pawar’s daughter and working president of the party, publicly stated that she had not seen any resignation letter.

Nonetheless, within days, the handover was complete. Shinde took over as state president and Patil was out. It was a masterclass in controlled ambiguity. It was classic Pawar, who has built a career out of inscrutable moves and quiet power plays. The fog of confusion surrounding the transition was perhaps intentional, offering Pawar room to manage internal dissent while sending a clear message that control remains firmly in his hands.

The choice of Shashikant Shinde is notable not only for what it represents but also for what it avoids. There had been speculation that the post might go to a leader from Marathwada (a region where the NCP is comparatively weaker) or perhaps to a non-Marathi face, as a signal of broader inclusivity. Instead, Pawar stuck to his base. Shinde hails from the sugar-rich belt of Satara and Sangli, a region central to the NCP’s historical strength and still vital to its survival. The appointment reaffirms Pawar’s instinct to consolidate rather than experiment, to preserve what little remains rather than chase new rainbows.

This realignment comes as Pawar’s party braces for a daunting electoral landscape. Western Maharashtra will witness a three-cornered contest: between Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP), the BJP, and the breakaway NCP group led by his nephew and current Deputy Chief Minister, Ajit Pawar, which is alliance with the BJP in the Mahayuti. The BJP, under the calculated leadership of Devendra Fadnavis, is already deploying a disciplined cadre and ample resources to seize control in urban and rural pockets alike. Ajit Pawar’s faction remains potent in areas such as Pimpri-Chinchwad and parts of Satara, Sangli and Kolhapur, but lacks the geographic spread to threaten the BJP alone (regardless of whether they are allies at the state and national levels).

Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction, meanwhile, is a peripheral player in the region, with influence limited to isolated pockets such as Patan in Satara district and Hadapsar and Kasba in Pune city. The real contest, in most constituencies, will likely be a two-way affair between the BJP and Ajit Pawar’s group, leaving Sharad Pawar in a precarious third position unless he can marshal his fragmented forces with urgency.

Even more concerning for Pawar is the state of his nominal ally, the Congress party. Once a formidable presence in western Maharashtra, the Congress is now a shadow of its former self. It has all but vanished in Pune district, once the nerve centre of the party’s rural outreach. Apart from a few surviving local barons like Praniti Shinde in Solapur, Satej Patil in Kolhapur, and former Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan in Karad, the party lacks both leadership and infrastructure. It is, to borrow Pawar’s own words from a 2021 address, “the lord of a deserted mansion.”

Whether Pawar still believes that metaphor applies remains to be seen. But if so, it begs a larger question: can he afford to continue relying on the Congress as a strategic partner in western Maharashtra and in the Baramati Lok Sabha seat - his most prized political possession? The party’s state president, Nana Patole, is attempting to revive the base through tireless tours and daily engagements, but the response remains tepid. “Our national leader is strong,” say party workers, referring to Rahul Gandhi. “But the organisation in Maharashtra is broken.”

There are still some optimists within the Congress who believe that a visit from Gandhi could revive morale. But that is hope, not strategy. In the meantime, Sharad Pawar is acting, as always, with shrewd calculation. The replacement of Patil with Shinde may appear minor in isolation, but in the context of western Maharashtra’s shifting political sands, it is a signal. The sugar bowl of Maharashtra may no longer brim with power, but Pawar intends to stir it as long as he can.