Currency on the Rack

The rupee is sinking to historic lows not because its economy is weak, but because global capital, trade politics and investor nerves are testing the limits of confidence.

The Indian rupee is hovering at territory once considered unthinkable. With the dollar brushing past Rs. 90, the freefall has now become psychological. Only a few months ago, when the currency slipped to Rs. 85, it was already Asia’s worst performer. Now the slide has steepened further. And yet, India is still the world’s fastest-growing large economy while the American dollar faces questions over debt, deficits and political gridlock.

Earlier this week, the rupee breached the 90-mark for the first time in intraday trade, touching 90.30 before closing weaker still. Persistent selling by foreign portfolio investors, uncertainty over an India-US trade deal and rising importer demand for dollars combined into a toxic brew. By itself, none of these forces is new. But together, they have proved overwhelming.

Currencies are never merely economic instruments. They are national symbols. In India, the exchange rate carries an added emotional burden, being what might be called “currency nationalism.”

A strong rupee is seen as proof of national strength, political competence and global stature. China, by contrast, subscribes to precisely the opposite creed: a weaker currency makes exports cheaper and surpluses fatter. That suits an economy addicted to selling what it cannot consume. India, by contrast, imports heavily - most of all oil - and runs a persistent trade deficit. For New Delhi, a falling currency is always cause for great anxiety.

In just two decades, the rupee has lost roughly half its value against the dollar. The deeper question is what explains the speed of today’s descent.

The immediate cause is the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have slashed demand for Indian exports. Fewer exports mean fewer dollars flowing into India. Since exporters are paid primarily in dollars, a slowdown in shipments translates directly into diminished foreign-exchange supply. When dollar inflows dry up, the rupee weakens. This mechanism is unforgiving.

Then, foreign portfolio investors have been heading for the exits. By some estimates, they have pulled out nearly a trillion rupees from Indian equities this year alone. Each exit requires rupees to be converted into dollars. The process amplifies pressure on the currency, turning nervousness into a self-reinforcing cycle. Falling markets weaken the rupee; a weak rupee spooks markets further.

Then comes gold, which is India’s perennial economic indulgence. Demand for the yellow metal has surged during the festive season, prompting jewellers to import heavily. Gold, inconveniently, must be paid for in dollars. Every shipment tightens the dollar squeeze. In a country where cultural tradition often overwhelms macroeconomic caution, festive sparkle exacts a real foreign-exchange price.

These short-term pressures, however, sit atop deeper structural unease. By conventional measures, the Indian economy is doing well. Along with a promising growth rate, core sectors such as steel, cement and coal are expanding at double-digit rates, signalling vigorous infrastructure investment. By textbook logic, a fast-growing economy should enjoy a resilient currency.

But currencies do not obey GDP alone. They respond to flows of trade, of capital, of confidence. And here the outlook darkens. Exports are weakening just as foreign investors are reassessing India’s promise. On top of this comes renewed uncertainty from Washington as America’s hardened stance on H1B visas threatens two quiet pillars of India’s dollar inflow: services exports and remittances.

Services account for more than half of India’s GDP. For decades, Indian technology firms have used H1B visas to dispatch engineers overseas, win outsourcing contracts and stitch themselves into the global economy. At the same time, Indian workers in America remit billions of dollars back home every year. These remittances have long been among India’s most stable sources of foreign exchange. A tightening of visa rules strikes both revenue and remittances. That double blow now hangs over the currency.

While the Reserve Bank of India has intervened repeatedly in currency markets to smooth the rupee’s descent, even a well-stocked central bank cannot defy sentiment forever. Intervention cannot reverse a tide driven by global risk aversion and shifting trade politics.

The rupee’s malaise reflects a harsher truth: India is more exposed to global uncertainty than its domestic growth figures suggest. Its markets are deeply intertwined with foreign capital. Its export fortunes are hostage to protectionist swings in Washington. Its energy needs leave it perpetually vulnerable to imported inflation. And its cultural appetite for gold turns private celebration into public vulnerability.