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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This...

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This development, confirmed by high-ranking party insiders, follows the realization that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) effectively ceded its claims on the Kalyan-Dombivali Municipal Corporation (KDMC) to protect the alliance, facilitating a “Mumbai for BJP, Kalyan for Shinde” power-sharing formula. The compromise marks a complete role reversal between the BJP and the Shiv Sena. Both the political parties were in alliance with each other for over 25 years before 2017 civic polls. Back then the BJP used to get the post of Deputy Mayor while the Shiv Sena always enjoyed the mayor’s position. In 2017 a surging BJP (82 seats) had paused its aggression to support the undivided Shiv Sena (84 seats), preferring to be out of power in the Corporation to keep the saffron alliance intact. Today, the numbers dictate a different reality. In the recently concluded elections BJP emerged as the single largest party in Mumbai with 89 seats, while the Shinde faction secured 29. Although the Shinde faction acted as the “kingmaker”—pushing the alliance past the majority mark of 114—the sheer numerical gap made their claim to the mayor’s post untenable in the long run. KDMC Factor The catalyst for this truce lies 40 kilometers north of Mumbai in Kalyan-Dombivali, a region considered the impregnable fortress of Eknath Shinde and his son, MP Shrikant Shinde. While the BJP performed exceptionally well in KDMC, winning 50 seats compared to the Shinde faction’s 53, the lotter for the reservation of mayor’s post in KDMC turned the tables decisively in favor of Shiv Sena there. In the lottery, the KDMC mayor’ post went to be reserved for the Scheduled Tribe candidate. The BJP doesn’t have any such candidate among elected corporatros in KDMC. This cleared the way for Shiv Sena. Also, the Shiv Sena tied hands with the MNS in the corporation effectively weakening the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s alliance with them. Party insiders suggest that once it became clear the BJP would not pursue the KDMC Mayor’s chair—effectively acknowledging it as Shinde’s fiefdom—he agreed to scale down his demands in the capital. “We have practically no hope of installing a BJP Mayor in Kalyan-Dombivali without shattering the alliance locally,” a Mumbai BJP secretary admitted and added, “Letting the KDMC become Shinde’s home turf is the price for securing the Mumbai Mayor’s bungalow for a BJP corporator for the first time in history.” The formal elections for the Mayoral posts are scheduled for later this month. While the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—led by the Shiv Sena (UBT)—has vowed to field candidates, the arithmetic heavily favors the ruling alliance. For Eknath Shinde, accepting the Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai is a tactical retreat. It allows him to consolidate his power in the MMR belt (Thane and Kalyan) while remaining a partner in Mumbai’s governance. For the BJP, this is a crowning moment; after playing second fiddle in the BMC for decades, they are poised to finally install their own “First Citizen” of Mumbai.

Defeated Winner

Eknath Shinde’s political trajectory after the recent Maharashtra elections is one of paradoxes: a triumphant contender, yet a ‘defeated’ winner. Despite leading his Shiv Sena faction to a solid 57-seat performance in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections, Shinde’s hopes of returning to the Chief Minister’s chair are slender, if any as the BJP, which emerged as the dominant force with 132 seats, is resolute in its demand for Devendra Fadnavis to serve as Chief Minister. Shinde’s recent announcement that PM Modi would have the final say over the CM’s post has practically paved the way for Fadnavis to return as CM again.


However, Shinde has balked at the prospect of being relegated to second fiddle. His reluctance to assume a subordinate role stems from a mix of pride and political acumen. Having once been Chief Minister at a critical juncture when the BJP needed to topple the Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA government, Shinde’s acceptance of a second-in-command post at this point would be viewed as a demotion. However, the BJP’s insistence on naming Fadnavis or one of their leaders as Chief Minister seems to be a non-negotiable point, creating a standoff that is unlikely to resolve itself in Shinde’s favour.


What lies ahead for Shinde, then? While the immediate prospect of returning to the CM’s office appears dim, his future is far from bleak. It is likely that he will find a way to retain influence in the government, potentially through an important portfolio or even by taking on a role in the Union Cabinet, should the BJP look to placate him.


Moreover, Shinde’s importance within the Shiv Sena remains clear, especially given his control over a significant portion of the party’s grassroots support. Should he remain a key figure in the government, his leadership in Maharashtra’s ongoing political realignment will shape his future. There is a tantalizing speculation here: In the medium term, Shinde may even position himself as a shadow contender for the CM’s post in the next election, particularly if the BJP’s hegemony over the state starts to erode in an unlikely event.


Whether the Mahayuti can transform its electoral mandate into a stable administration will depend on its leaders’ ability to rise above personal ambitions and focus on the larger task of delivering on their promises to the people.


The stakes are high for all parties involved. The BJP, buoyed by its record-breaking performance, risks appearing overbearing if it ignores the demands of its allies. Conversely, Shinde must navigate the fine line between asserting his party’s relevance and jeopardizing the alliance’s cohesion.


In the days ahead, the real test will be whether Shinde’s potential sidelining becomes a liability for the alliance—or whether his eventual role, however diminished, can be framed as a testament to the coalition’s unity. For now, Maharashtra watches as its triumphant victors grapple with the burdens of victory.

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