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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Fractured Crown

Between Siddaramaiah’s grip on power and Shivakumar’s restless ambition, the Karnataka Congress is trapped in a succession spiral. Karnataka Karnataka today has two chief ministers - one by office, the other by expectation. The power tussle between Siddaramaiah and his deputy, D.K. Shivakumar, has slipped so completely into the open that the Congress’s ritual denials sound like political farce. A whispered ‘understanding’ after the 2023 victory that each would get the CM’s post after...

Fractured Crown

Between Siddaramaiah’s grip on power and Shivakumar’s restless ambition, the Karnataka Congress is trapped in a succession spiral. Karnataka Karnataka today has two chief ministers - one by office, the other by expectation. The power tussle between Siddaramaiah and his deputy, D.K. Shivakumar, has slipped so completely into the open that the Congress’s ritual denials sound like political farce. A whispered ‘understanding’ after the 2023 victory that each would get the CM’s post after two-and-a-half years has hardened into a public confrontation between a chief minister determined to finish five years and a deputy increasingly unwilling to wait. The recent breakfast meeting between the two men at Siddaramaiah’s residence was presented as a truce where the ‘high command’ was invoked as the final arbiter. “There are no differences between us,” Siddaramaiah insisted, twice for emphasis. Few were convinced and soon, Shivakumar was again hinting darkly at change. For weeks, Shivakumar’s loyalists have been holding meetings, mobilising legislators and making pilgrimages to Delhi to get the Congress high command to honour its promise. They insist that the Congress leadership agreed to a rotational chief ministership in 2023 and that November 2025 was always meant to mark Shivakumar’s ascent. The high command, for its part, has perfected the art of strategic vagueness by neither confirming nor denying the pact. This suggests that the Congress does not merely hesitate to act against Siddaramaiah, but increasingly lacks the capacity to do so. From the outset of his second innings, Siddaramaiah has given no signal of easing aside. As he approaches January 2026, poised to overtake D. Devaraj Urs as Karnataka’s longest-serving chief minister, the symbolism is unmistakable. The mantle of social justice politics that Urs once embodied now firmly sits on Siddaramaiah’s shoulders. And it is this social coalition that shields him. His fortress is AHINDA - minorities, backward classes and Dalits. Leaked figures from the unreleased caste census suggest that these groups together approach or exceed two-thirds of the state’s population. Lingayats and Vokkaligas, once electorally dominant, are rendered numerical minorities in this arithmetic. Siddaramaiah governs not merely as a Congress leader, but as the putative custodian of Karnataka’s demographic majority. That claim is reinforced through policy. Minority scholarships have been revived, contractor quotas restored, residential schools expanded. More than Rs. 42,000 crore has been earmarked for Scheduled Castes and Tribes. Kurubas, his own community, have been pitched for Scheduled Tribe status, with careful assurances that their elevation will not disadvantage others. DK Shivakumar brings organisational muscle, financial clout and control over the Vokkaliga heartland. In electoral campaigns, these are formidable assets. But in a confrontation with a leader who embodies a 60–70 percent social coalition, they are blunt instruments. The Congress high command understands this equation, even if it publicly pretends otherwise. It also remembers, uneasily, what Siddaramaiah did the last time his authority was constrained. In 2020, when the Congress–JD(S) coalition collapsed after 16 MLAs defected to Mumbai,13 of them hailed from Siddaramaiah’s camp. At the time, he held the post of coordination committee chairman. Instead, he emerged as the principal beneficiary of collapse, returning as Leader of the Opposition with a tighter grip on the party. If the Congress high command could not punish him then, it is doubtful it can coerce him now. Shivakumar’s predicament is thus more tragic than tactical. He is not battling a rival alone, but an entire political structure built to outlast him. The promised coronation looks increasingly like a mirage drifting just ahead of a man condemned to keep walking. For the Congress, the cost of this paralysis is already visible. A government elected on guarantees and governance is consumed by succession. The party’s authority is dissolving while its factions harden. The Congress returned to power in Karnataka after years in the wilderness, only to re-enact the same leadership dysfunction that has crippled it elsewhere. Regardless of whether Siddaramaiah survives this storm, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Congress cannot survive the slow corrosion of its command in one of the few states it holds today.

Eroding Edge

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), once a seemingly unassailable political force in Mumbai, is facing troubling signs of waning influence in the city. Recently, the BJP found itself bested by its former allies, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) faction, not only in high-profile legislative contests but now also in the domain of university politics. The recent clean sweep by the Aaditya Thackeray-led Yuva Sena in the University of Mumbai Senate elections - winning all ten seats - suggests that the BJP’s grip on Mumbai’s electoral landscape is loosening. It also raises questions about the party’s readiness for the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly election.

When it was in alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena, the BJP had expanded its urban appeal across Mumbai while leveraging the Sena’s grassroots muscle. But since the dramatic split within the Shiv Sena in 2022 and the emergence of two rival factions — one led by Uddhav Thackeray and the other by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde (who aligned with the BJP) — the political calculus has altered. The BJP, which had previously counted on the Shiv Sena’s backing in Mumbai, now faces a formidable opponent in Uddhav’s faction.

The Yuva Sena’s success in the Senate polls, much more than just a victory in the field of student politics, is an ominous sign for the BJP’s urban strategy. The win comes on the heels of the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s triumph in the Maharashtra Legislative Council elections earlier this year, where the party secured both the Mumbai Graduates and Mumbai Teachers constituencies, reflecting the diminishing appeal of the BJP even among its traditionally strong urban voter base. The BJP’s rout in 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Mumbai, where it managed to win only one of the three seats it contested in the city, has only underscored its vulnerability. This was in stark contrast to the 2019 general election in Mumbai city, when the BJP had won all three seats it fought on.

It seemed at the time that the party’s blend of Hindu nationalism and development promises resonated with the city’s middle class. However, by 2024, this support seems to have frayed. Internal divisions, the Sena split, and discontent with the BJP’s governance in Maharashtra appear to have undermined its urban appeal.

The Mumbai Senate election result is testimony to the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s capacity for resilience with the party’s youth wing emerging proving that it is able to rally support from a demographic crucial to the 2024 Assembly elections.

The question facing the BJP led by Devendra Fadnavis is whether it can arrest this decline before the state elections. Compounding problems for the BJP, its ally, CM Shinde’s Shiv Sena, has struggled to compete with the Thackeray brand’s enduring appeal in Mumbai.

If the BJP fails to reverse its trend of losing in Mumbai, the upcoming Assembly elections could see a further erosion of its influence in the city.

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