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By:

Rajiv Shah

22 September 2025 at 8:32:23 pm

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger...

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger geopolitical churn in which alliances, energy, trade, currencies and economic coercion are becoming interconnected. India finds itself almost at its centre. The emerging Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan security equation deserves particular attention. Saudi Arabia brings enormous financial and energy influence; Türkiye possesses considerable military strength, NATO experience and an expanding defence industry; Pakistan brings a large military establishment and nuclear capability with the open support of Washington. Any arrangement containing a collective-defence commitment naturally acquires significance beyond ordinary diplomatic cooperation. Alongside it, another strategic convergence has gradually developed among India, Israel and the UAE. It would be incorrect to describe this as a formal military alliance. Yet geopolitics does not operate through defence treaties alone. India's extensive defence and technology relationship with Israel, its rapidly expanding economic and strategic partnership with the UAE, and the UAE-Israel relationship following the Abraham Accords have created considerable common ground. I2U2—bringing together India, Israel, the UAE and the United States—added another institutional dimension. Thus, without necessarily becoming opposing military camps, two interesting strategic formations are visible across West Asia: Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan and the looser India–UAE–Israel convergence. Balancing Challenge India faces a similar balancing challenge. The Gulf is not a distant geopolitical theatre for New Delhi. Nearly nine million Indians live and work there. India's energy security, investments, trade and remittance flows are closely connected with the region. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor also requires relative stability across this geography. Polarisation in West Asia can therefore rapidly become an Indian economic and strategic problem. There is another question Indian planners cannot ignore. If a future India-Pakistan confrontation escalates, how would any collective-defence commitment involving Pakistan be interpreted by Saudi Arabia and Türkiye? It would be alarmist to assume that either country would automatically enter a conflict against India. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has substantial economic and strategic interests in maintaining good relations with New Delhi. Nevertheless, defence planners are paid to examine possibilities before they become crises. While these equations develop in India's neighbourhood, economic pressure is emerging from Washington. The US Senate has voted 86–11 for legislation intended to increase pressure on Russia by targeting major purchasers of Russian energy. The measure could authorise tariffs reaching 100 per cent against goods from countries continuing large-scale purchases of Russian oil and gas, with India among those potentially exposed. China is powerful enough to shrug off similar challenges from the West." However this does not mean that America has already imposed a 100 per cent tariff on India. Further legislative steps remain necessary, and presidential waiver provisions are important. But the overwhelming Senate vote carries a political message that New Delhi cannot dismiss. Tariffs are no longer merely tools of trade protection; they have become instruments of geopolitical coercion. Washington's argument is understandable: revenues from Russian petroleum help sustain Moscow's economy during the Ukraine war, and reducing those revenues increases pressure on Russia. But in that case what about European countries who too were/are customers of Russian oil? India's question is equally legitimate: who should determine where India purchases the energy required by more than 1.4 billion people? If Russian crude remains commercially advantageous and helps contain domestic energy costs, New Delhi cannot reasonably be expected to make every energy decision according to another country's geopolitical priorities. Strategic partnership cannot become strategic obedience. This is where BRICS enters the larger picture. India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and will host its leaders at an unusually sensitive moment. BRICS is no longer merely the original grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Its expansion has considerably increased its demographic, energy and geopolitical weight. More importantly, discussions around BRICS increasingly touch a sensitive nerve in Washington: alternative payment mechanisms, local-currency trade, development finance and the possibility of gradually reducing dependence upon the dollar-dominated international financial system. The BRICS Summit this time is poised to take some decisive steps which may affect western interests especially US. (The writer is an advocate, legal, geopolitical and public policy analyst. Views personal.)

External involvement in Chandranath’s murder

Political and Geopolitical forces behind the killing in West Bengal

 New Delhi: The 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections have not only signaled a new trajectory in Indian politics but have also stirred ripples in global geopolitics. The unprecedented victory of the BJP in the state brought to light events that reveal how the long-standing cycle of political power struggles and violence is now emerging in a new form. The most alarming manifestation of this shift came late Wednesday night with the murder of Chandranath Rath, personal secretary to senior BJP leader Shuvendu Adhikari.

 

Chandranath Rath, a veteran who served 15 years in the Indian Air Force, was closely working with his family friend and senior BJP leader, Shuvendu Adhikari. His killing is more than an isolated personal attack and it signals a disturbing new dimension of political violence. Historically, electoral violence in West Bengal has targeted the workers of losing parties. This time, however, even the leaders and workers of the winning side have fallen victim.

 

The implications of this violence extend beyond the state's borders. Following the BJP's landslide victory in West Bengal, the activity of anti-India elements in neighboring countries has intensified. Bangladesh and Pakistan have expressed concern over the party's victory, while China and the United States are also closely monitoring its implications. This highlights that election results in border states now carry geopolitical significance far beyond local politics. For decades, West Bengal and Assam have been treated as strategic zones in broader geopolitical games, with external forces allegedly attempting to maintain unrest in these regions over the past seven decades, like Jammu-Kashmir.

 

Investigations into Chandranath Rath's murder indicate a pre-meditated conspiracy. The assailants used advanced Glock 47X firearms, suggesting that the plot was not confined to local planning alone. The crime occurred just 60 kilometers from Basirhat, near the Bangladesh border, which strengthens the likelihood of external involvement.

 

Violent History

History shows that violence and muscle power have always been intertwined with West Bengal politics. From the "Khaddo Movement" of the 1960s to slogans like "Dam Dam Dawai," political action was often synonymous with coercion, intimidation and murder. During the Left Front era, strategies like "scientific rigging," booth capture, and leveraging local goons became commonplace. Later, the Trinamool Congress inherited these structures and kept them under its control.

 

Today's events demonstrate that this system remains alive.

 

Border Dynamics

The complexity of border areas and communal dynamics further complicates the scenario. In constituencies along the West Bengal and Assam borders, Muslim candidates secured victories, while regions adjacent to West Bengal in Bangladesh are represented by members of Jamaat-e-Islami. Groups like Jamaat-e-Islami have long pursued anti-India agendas, and their influence can be seen in electoral outcomes across these areas.

 

The BJP's recent victory, and the violence that ensued, draw attention to geopolitics. The President of the United States congratulated Prime Minister Narendra Modi, marking an unprecedented acknowledgment of a state-level BJP win. In contrast, Pakistani and Bangladeshi media have reacted with alarm, while discussions in Bangladesh's parliament highlight concern for the Muslim communities in these regions. Local outbreaks of violence further underline that West Bengal is no longer merely a domestic political theatre, however, this is a hub of geopolitical activity, where external forces seek to keep unstable and chaotic.

  

This cycle of political violence extends beyond individual acts. It has become a complex mix of administrative inefficiency, local political rivalry, and external interference. The immediate presence of DGP Siddh Nath Gupta and CRPF DG Gyanendra Pratap Singh at the crime scene underscores the gravity of the situation. Chandranath Rath's murder is not merely a personal tragedy but a broader political and societal security challenge. The events echo the 1970s when Naxalism emerged in West Bengal, eventually spreading across India's "Red Corridor."

 

Rath's assassination makes it clear that politics in West Bengal is no longer limited to electoral competition or local governance. The incident lays bare the intertwined realities of political violence, international geopolitics, and social security concerns. If the current trends continue, West Bengal may evolve into a region sensitive not only to national politics but also to global strategic interests.

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