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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

From Tears to Tussle

Inside the ruthless succession war for the soul of the NCP Mumbai: In a significant revelation that sheds light on the internal fractures of Maharashtra’s most prominent political dynasty, a senior Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader has disclosed that a merger between the two rival factions was nearly finalised following the tragic death of Ajit Pawar, only to be derailed by a bitter battle for leadership. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the leader revealed that while the state...

From Tears to Tussle

Inside the ruthless succession war for the soul of the NCP Mumbai: In a significant revelation that sheds light on the internal fractures of Maharashtra’s most prominent political dynasty, a senior Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader has disclosed that a merger between the two rival factions was nearly finalised following the tragic death of Ajit Pawar, only to be derailed by a bitter battle for leadership. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the leader revealed that while the state mourned the loss of the Deputy Chief Minister in a plane crash two months ago, a high-stakes power struggle was unfolding behind the scenes, ultimately leading to the “hasty” swearing-in of Sunetra Pawar as his successor. The senior leader’s comments come at a time when the Pawar family and NCP workers have been sharing deeply emotional tributes to mark two months since the January 28 disaster. However, beneath the public display of grief lies a complex story of shifting allegiances. According to the leader, the period immediately following the crash was “extremely fluid”. At the time, Ajit Pawar’s sudden absence had created a vacuum that many believed would naturally be filled by the senior leadership of the NCP-SP faction, including Sharad Pawar and Supriya Sule. “Indeed, there were talks of a merger, and Dada (Ajit Pawar) himself had been involved in those negotiations before the accident,” the leader remarked. However, the dynamics changed rapidly when the Ajit Pawar faction realized that their identity and future could be swallowed whole if they did not act quickly to secure their own leadership. This realization reportedly led to the decision to install Sunetra Pawar as the Deputy Chief Minister just three days after the tragedy. Immediate Stability The move was intended to provide immediate stability and ensure that the leadership remained within Ajit Pawar’s immediate family. A particularly poignant detail revealed by the senior leader was the absence of the Sharad Pawar family at Sunetra Pawar’s swearing-in ceremony at Lok Bhavan on January 31. Despite the best efforts of Ajit’s elder son, Parth Pawar, who was reportedly seen “pursuing and trying to convince” his relatives to attend as a show of family unity, Sharad Pawar, Supriya Sule, and Rohit Pawar remained conspicuous by their absence. “That was very unfortunate and came as a shock to many of us who have spent decades with the family,” the leader stated, adding that this absence signaled the end of the brief window for an easy merger. This political friction stands in stark contrast to the heart-wrenching scenes witnessed during the last rites in Baramati. At the funeral, Supriya Sule was seen breaking down in uncontrollable tears, holding Sunetra Pawar’s hand in a display of what many thought was a permanent reconciliation. Rohit Pawar had also shared a viral social media post expressing his inability to even use the prefix “late” for his uncle, stating that he lacked the courage to see Ajit Pawar’s name written that way and that “Dada” would always live on through his work. However, as the senior leader noted, the narrative shifted dramatically once the Sharad Pawar faction realized that the leadership of the NCP would not be handed to them on a platter. What began as talk of family unity and political merger soon pivoted to a darker narrative. Rohit Pawar recently filed a “Zero FIR” in Bengaluru, alleging a “larger criminal conspiracy” behind the plane crash, citing technical lapses and suspicious flight data. This move is seen by many in the NCP as a strategic shift to delegitimize the current leadership and keep the pressure on the Mahayuti government. Undisputed Leader For now, the senior leader remains firm: Sunetra Pawar is the undisputed leader of the NCP, and any future talks of a merger must be conducted on her terms. “If anyone seeks a merger now, they will have to talk to her. She is our leader, and she will take the final call,” the leader concluded, indicating that while the doors for dialogue are not entirely closed, the “natural” transition the other faction expected has been firmly blocked by the rise of Maharashtra’s first woman Deputy Chief Minister. Moving tribute to Ajit Pawar On Saturday, marking exactly two months since the tragic passing of Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar in a plane crash, his family members shared moving tributes reflecting on his legacy and the void left by his absence. Sunetra Pawar, who recently stepped into the role of Deputy Chief Minister to carry forward her husband’s work, shared a deeply emotional message on social media. She expressed that while two months have passed, the pain of the loss remains as fresh as the day of the accident. Describing Ajit Pawar as her constant “guiding beacon,” she noted that the passage of time has not diminished his presence in her thoughts. She reaffirmed her solemn commitment to fulfilling his unfulfilled dreams for the development of Maharashtra, particularly for farmers and the youth, while drawing strength from his disciplined and dedicated style of functioning to navigate her new responsibilities. NCP (SP) leader Supriya Sule paid tribute to her “Dada” by emphasising the need for truth and justice. In her reflections, she described him as a pillar of the family whose sudden departure has left everyone devastated. Beyond the personal grief, she utilized the occasion to raise significant concerns in Parliament regarding the transparency of the ongoing investigation into the Baramati plane crash. She asserted that the most fitting tribute to a leader of his stature would be a time-bound and thorough inquiry into the circumstances of the accident. Her tribute balanced the sorrow of a sister with a firm demand for accountability to ensure such a tragedy never recurs. Rohit Pawar’s tribute was characterised by a mix of profound grief and a fierce determination to seek answers. He recalled the personal guidance he received from his uncle, reminiscing about small yet significant moments and the weight of his “authoritative voice” that once commanded the state’s administration. On this two-month mark, he remained vocal about his suspicions surrounding the technical safety of the aircraft, describing the loss as an “irreparable blow” to the state’s political landscape. He vowed to keep his uncle’s memory alive not just through words, but by relentlessly pursuing the “Zero FIR” investigation to ensure that the facts behind the crash are brought to light.

From 'Vishwaguru' to Middle Power

The ongoing tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran are more than a routine geopolitical crisis; they offer a clear view of how power operates in the international system. For India, this moment provides a sobering perspective. While the country increasingly speaks of its role as a “Vishwaguru” (global guide), the reality is more measured-India continues to function as a middle power, adapting to global shifts rather than directing them.


A key reason lies in India’s deep dependence on West Asia. A significant share of its energy imports originates from this region, much of it passing through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Any instability there quickly translates into higher fuel costs, supply uncertainties and broader economic pressures at home. In such situations, India does not influence the course of events; instead, it responds to their consequences.


This imbalance-being affected without being able to shape outcomes-is a defining characteristic of a middle power. India’s diplomatic response to the crisis reflects this reality. Rather than taking a firm position, it has maintained a careful balance, mindful of its relationships with multiple stakeholders. Its strategic partnership with the United States, defence cooperation with Israel, and longstanding energy and connectivity interests with Iran make outright alignment difficult. Often described as “strategic autonomy,” this approach provides flexibility, but it also highlights a limitation: India must prioritise caution because it lacks the leverage to determine how events unfold.


In effect, it manages risks more than it defines directions. The economic dimension further reinforces this position. Conflicts of this nature tend to disrupt oil markets, unsettle trade routes and trigger volatility in financial systems-all of which directly impact India. Despite being one of the world’s largest economies, it does not yet possess the capacity to fully shield itself from such external shocks or to independently secure its interests during crises. Unlike major powers, it cannot decisively influence the trajectory of conflicts or stabilise regions critical to its national interests.


Moral Leadership

At the same time, India has sought to project moral leadership on the global stage, emphasising dialogue, peace and cooperation. While this enhances its international image, moments of conflict test not only principles but also the ability to act decisively. In the present situation, the principal actors are shaping events according to their strategic priorities, while India’s role remains largely supportive-focused on safeguarding its citizens and limiting economic fallout. Even in a region where it has deep historical and economic ties, its influence remains constrained. Recognising India as a middle power should not be viewed negatively. Such nations often play constructive roles by maintaining balance, engaging with diverse partners and avoiding overreach.


India’s approach fits this pattern, enabling it to navigate a complex global environment with a degree of flexibility. However, there remains a clear distinction between aspiration and capability. The idea of being a “Vishwaguru” implies not only moral authority but also the material strength and strategic reach to shape global developments-an area where India is still evolving. Moving beyond this stage will require sustained effort. Reducing dependence on external energy sources, strengthening economic resilience, expanding defence and strategic capabilities, and taking greater initiative in regional affairs are essential steps. Progress in these areas would gradually enhance India’s ability to influence outcomes rather than merely adapt to them.


For now, the ongoing crisis serves as a reminder that global stature is built as much on tangible capacity as on vision. India’s trajectory is undoubtedly forward-moving, but it remains a work in progress. In a rapidly changing world, the country stands as a pragmatic middle power-ambitious in outlook, yet grounded in the realities it must navigate.


(The writer is the Principal of Podar International School, Ausa, Latur. Views personal.)

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