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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

From Vision to Action: Building Thane’s First Biomedical Waste Facility

With TMC land, IIT-Bombay guidance, and a mix of savings and loans, we built a biomedical waste facility.

In an earlier article, I reviewed hospital technologies for managing biomedical waste, from microwaves to autoclaves, and their challenges in India. Furthermore, I highlighted how the shift focused on innovative developments and inspiring success stories within the country. From the Make in India–driven Srjanam automated biomedical waste treatment plant at AIIMS, New Delhi, to the grassroots, community-led efforts of Thane’s Enviro-Vigil NGO, these initiatives showcase both cutting-edge technology and sustained local action that are shaping the future of sustainable biomedical waste management in India.


While these innovations highlighted what was possible at a national and institutional level, our own journey in Thane began much closer to home. With limited experience but a strong resolve, we decided to take on the challenge of creating a functional biomedical waste facility ourselves.


Given our non-technical backgrounds, we were naturally a little apprehensive at first, but we decided to take the plunge and give it a try. A few pharmaceutical companies already had incinerators, and a couple of scientist friends introduced us to the machines. We also sought guidance from experts at IIT-Bombay to learn and adopt the technology. After several rounds of discussions, deliberations, and careful consideration, we finally decided to accept the challenge and move forward.


The Thane Municipal Corporation (TMC) provided the required land within the premises of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Hospital in Kalwa. When we visited for the first time, the site was completely covered with construction and demolition debris collected from across the city. Our initial task was to clear the debris and level the land to make it suitable and safe for our operations. We rolled up our sleeves and started working on it.


Another significant hurdle was raising sufficient funds. This was necessary not only to acquire the incinerator, autoclave, and other machines. We would also have to develop the necessary infrastructure, including a storehouse, office space, and a large room to house the incinerator. The total budget at that time was around sixty lakh rupees. We contributed a portion from our personal savings and secured a loan from a local bank to cover the remaining amount.


The next step was to complete all legal formalities and obtain authorisation from the Maharashtra Pollution Control Board (MPCB). Eventually, after clearing the debris, constructing the infrastructure, procuring the equipment, and installing everything in accordance with standard norms and specifications, the facility was fully operational.


In the meantime, we organised a seminar for doctors and hospital staff in collaboration with the Indian Medical Association, Thane chapter, to provide detailed information about the common biomedical waste facility we were setting up and to address any questions or concerns they had. In addition, we developed a comprehensive training programme for nurses and housekeeping staff across the hospitals to help them understand the provisions of the 1998 biomedical waste rules and to clarify the responsibilities of each employee, especially regarding proper waste segregation. We began conducting these training sessions in every hospital using slideshows and posters, even before the incinerator and other equipment were installed.


Beyond these internal initiatives, we also created awareness posters featuring appeals from eminent Marathi film and theatre actors such as D. Girish Oak, Suhastai Joshi, and Sarika Nawathe. The posters showed the actors urging the general public to consider whether they were aware of biomedical waste, followed by the message: “Ask your doctor whether they are segregating their waste.” This initiative aimed to educate ordinary citizens about a completely new category of waste, something no other operational facility in India had attempted at the time.


We officially began collecting and treating waste in March 2003, and the facility was formally inaugurated by Shri Ram Naik, then Petroleum Minister, Government of India. By that time, we had also started enrolling clinics and hospitals to connect with our facility in compliance with the rules, ensuring a structured and law-abiding system for biomedical waste management.


Curious to know what happens next? Stay tuned for next week’s continuation, and have a fantastic weekend!


(The author is an environmentalist. Views Personal.)

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