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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

Georgia’s Crossroads

A nation torn between its European dream and its Soviet shadows grapples with an uncertain future.

Georgia’s Crossroads

In Georgia, a simmering political crisis has erupted into fiery protests, laying bare the fault lines of a nation caught between aspirations for European integration and the gravitational pull of its Soviet past. The conflict pits Salome Zourabichvili, the country’s pro-European president, against Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and his ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party, accused of steering the South Caucasus nation toward an authoritarian, pro-Russia trajectory.


The immediate flashpoint is the government’s decision to suspend European Union accession talks, a dramatic volte-face that sparked fury among the 80% of Georgians who favour EU membership. Since independence in 1991, Georgia has pursued a path toward Europe, culminating in its EU candidate status last year. But the GD’s decision to delay negotiations until 2028 has unravelled years of diplomatic progress and unleashed a wave of nationwide protests.


These demonstrations—marked by EU flag-waving crowds chanting “Russian slaves” and violent police crackdowns—reflect deeper grievances. Critics accuse GD, in power since 2012, of consolidating control over institutions and veering away from democratic norms. Founded by Bidzina Ivanishvili, a billionaire with ties to Moscow, GD has introduced laws eerily reminiscent of Russian autocracy, including a “foreign agent” statute targeting civil society. The party’s critics allege electoral fraud in its recent victory, leading the European Parliament to call for a rerun and impose sanctions on Georgian officials.


Georgia’s flirtation with authoritarianism has profound historical underpinnings. The country’s post-Soviet journey has been shaped by its fraught relationship with Russia. The 2008 Russo-Georgian war, which left 20% of Georgian territory under Russian occupation, cemented deep public distrust of Moscow. Yet, GD’s actions, from stalling EU accession to welcoming fleeing Russian conscripts after the invasion of Ukraine, have fuelled fears of creeping Russification. Meanwhile, many in Tbilisi and beyond worry that the government is prioritizing oligarchic interests over the democratic will of its people.


The EU’s response has been unequivocal. Brussels condemned the elections as fraudulent and the government’s suppression of protests as anti-democratic. The United States has suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia, warning of “direct consequences” if the country continues its backslide. Prime Minister Kobakhidze’s rhetoric—accusing the EU of “blackmail” and portraying Georgia as a victim of Western manipulation—rings hollow to a population weary of seeing its European aspirations thwarted.


This turmoil is playing out against a backdrop of geopolitical tension. Russia has long sought to maintain influence in its former Soviet periphery, viewing Georgia’s EU aspirations as a direct challenge to its sphere of control. For the Kremlin, a Georgia destabilized by political discord and diminished Western ties is a strategic victory. Meanwhile, the West faces the challenge of ensuring that Georgia’s democratic backsliding does not embolden other pro-Russia regimes in the region.


For the West, Georgia’s trajectory offers a stark lesson in the limits of soft power. While Brussels and Washington have sought to promote democratic reforms through incentives like EU membership, they have struggled to counter Moscow’s influence in the region. The Kremlin, adept at exploiting divisions within post-Soviet states, views Georgia’s turmoil as a strategic opportunity. Should GD succeed in consolidating power, it would mark another victory for Russian authoritarianism in the post-Soviet space.


The protests are unlikely to subside soon and whether they yield substantive change remains uncertain. With the GD digging in its heels and Zourabichvili largely sidelined, the risk of prolonged instability looms large. As Georgia teeters on the edge, its people must decide: will they march toward Europe or retreat into the past? For it is in this choice lies the fate of a nation’s identity, freedom, and future role in the international order.

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