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By:

Rajendra Joshi

3 December 2024 at 9:20:26 am

The ‘sweet’ scam behind the sugar price surge

AI generated image Kolhapur: A sugar shortage can push up prices. But what happens when prices rise sharply despite the country having enough sugar in its warehouses? That is the uncomfortable question emerging from the sugar market’s July-August price surge. There was no evidence of an outright shortage when the new sugar season approached. Government estimates indicated that the country would have around 43 lakh metric tonnes of carry-forward stock. The Centre, relying on this broad...

The ‘sweet’ scam behind the sugar price surge

AI generated image Kolhapur: A sugar shortage can push up prices. But what happens when prices rise sharply despite the country having enough sugar in its warehouses? That is the uncomfortable question emerging from the sugar market’s July-August price surge. There was no evidence of an outright shortage when the new sugar season approached. Government estimates indicated that the country would have around 43 lakh metric tonnes of carry-forward stock. The Centre, relying on this broad availability, permitted exports of 20 lakh tonnes. And yet, the market behaved as though sugar had suddenly become scarce. At the beginning of July, tender prices were around Rs 3,800 a quintal. By the latter half of the month, prices began climbing rapidly. In the retail market, sugar prices that were around Rs 45 a kg reportedly touched Rs 78. The government responded with stock limits and permission for duty-free imports of 10 lakh tonnes. But these interventions address the symptoms. They do not answer the more fundamental question: what caused the price spike in the first place? The first clue could lie in the lifting quota. The quantity of sugar released into the market in July was lower than expected. By itself, a lower monthly quota need not create a crisis when overall stocks are comfortable. But markets are driven not only by physical availability; they are also driven by expectations. A smaller release can create the perception of scarcity. Once that perception takes hold, stock-holding can become more profitable. The initial spark need not be large if the market has enough speculative fuel. This is why the July episode deserves a forensic examination. The timing is particularly significant. July marked the transition from Ashadh to Shravan, when the festive calendar begins and sugar consumption traditionally strengthens. At such a time, the normal expectation would be that adequate stocks are released into the market to prevent abnormal price escalation. Instead, prices moved sharply upwards. Was this coincidence, a genuine mismatch between demand and supply, or something more? The GST system offers an unusually powerful investigative tool. Every registered transaction leaves a digital footprint. A sugar mill selling to a registered trader generates an invoice recording the quantity, value, date and buyer. The trader’s subsequent sale generates another transaction. GST returns and e-invoices can therefore help create a chain showing who purchased sugar, at what price, when it was invoiced and when it was subsequently sold. This information can be matched with physical stock registers, dispatch records and warehouse inventories. The key question should be simple: Did the sugar that was shown as sold actually enter the market? Suppose a trader purchased substantial quantities in July when prices were relatively low, but the commodity remained physically stored at or near the mill. If the stock was released only after prices rose substantially in August, investigators would have a legitimate reason to examine the transaction more closely. That alone would not prove hoarding or cartelisation. A commercial decision to hold inventory is not illegal merely because prices subsequently rise. Large purchases before a price surge. Delayed physical movement. Repeated transactions among related entities. Unusually high margins. Sudden releases when prices peak. These are precisely the patterns that a data-led investigation can identify.

Growing Risks Of Cyber Warfare

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

In a shocking series of events, multiple coordinated explosions have rocked Lebanon and parts of Syria, killing dozens of people and injuring thousands. The blasts occurred after explosive devices, hidden inside pagers and other radio communication devices, were detonated. The targeted individuals were primarily members of Hezbollah, with the explosions taking place in densely populated areas, resulting in widespread injuries to civilians, including children.

The devices, mainly pagers, walkie-talkies, and radios, had been in the possession of Hezbollah operatives, who had acquired them months prior, under the assumption they were secure. However, Hezbollah has accused Israel’s intelligence agency, Shin Bet, of tampering with the devices during transit.

According to security experts, Israel’s elite secret cyber warfare unit was behind the attack. This unit, known for its global cyber operations, is also linked to the creation of the STUXnet malware, which was responsible for the failure of Iran’s nuclear power plant. The pagers were rigged with explosive materials in place of a battery, and a relay switch was installed, allowing the explosions to be triggered remotely in a synchronized manner. The result was devastating injuries to the eyes, face, hands, and legs of those carrying the devices.

The incident occurred in Hezbollah-stronghold areas, including the Dahieh suburb of Beirut, southern Lebanon, and parts of the Beqaa Valley, with some explosions also reported across the border in Syria. The blasts overwhelmed hospitals, as hundreds of victims sought medical help for injuries ranging from severe burns to shattered limbs. The intensity of the explosions, far beyond that of ordinary battery malfunctions, indicates a highly sophisticated sabotage operation.

These explosions have not only deepened the crisis in Lebanon but have also raised critical questions about supply chain security, intelligence tactics, and the legality of using booby-trapped electronics in conflict zones.


What Are Pagers, and Why Are They Still Preferred?

Despite being old-school tele communication technology, pagers or beepers are still used in many countries, particularly in critical sectors and organizations. Pagers primarily facilitate one-way communication, pager uses higher frequencies than car radios i.e. 400 MHz band frequency. It also used a very basic type of VHF spectrum. These devices operate in restricted areas to transfer messages, alerts, and information. These devices are considered more secure and harder to trace or track compared to mobile phones, as they only receive messages, similar to a car radio that receives signals without revealing the listener’s identity or location. Additionally, pagers lack features like Bluetooth or GPS, making them more difficult to hack or compromise.

Among their many advantages, pagers are known for their long battery life and durability, making them ideal for continuous use in specific industries. There are an estimated two million active pager users worldwide. Hezbollah began using pagers after Israel successfully assassinated a high-ranking Hezbollah target by hacking his cellphone and precisely targeting him with a missile. Since then, many Hezbollah members have switched to more primitive communication devices, like pagers, to avoid being tracked via the internet.


Are Mobile Phones and Smartphones Similarly Vulnerable?

American and European security agencies suggest that, theoretically, it is possible to alter mobile phones and other smart devices to turn them into explosive devices. However, practically, it is more difficult due to the advanced security systems in modern smartphones. A hacked smartphone may exhibit various signs, such as abnormal temperature changes, slower system performance, unexpected reboots, odd sounds during calls, hung applications, or irrelevant messages and pop-ups, all of which could indicate tampering. These security systems make it more challenging to modify smartphones in the same manner as simpler devices like pagers.


New Security Challenges

The Hezbollah pager explosion serves as a wake-up call for sectors involving critical infrastructure and aviation. In an era where smartphones are network-connected and can be charged wirelessly, the possibility of tampering with batteries or embedding explosives, like HMX, PETN and other type of plastic explosives pose significant risks. During flights, even a minor explosion could result in catastrophic consequences. On the ground, the threat extends to damaging nearby aircraft, equipment, and infrastructure. Airport security may soon impose stricter regulations, potentially banning pagers, walkie-talkies, and radios, much like power banks, which are now restricted on flights. In the future, mobile phones may only be allowed in switched-off modes, placed in lithium-safe bags during flights. Suspicious devices could be handled separately in Faraday-sheet bags to block any network or signal connections.

This incident highlights the growing risks of cyber warfare and the dangers posed by everyday communication devices being exploited for sabotage. It is an alarming call for a nation’s security as the treat of such critical infrastructure being handled by terrorist organisations can compromise the use of day-to-day electronics for malicious activities. As technology advances, so must the protocols for ensuring public safety, particularly in high-risk environments where even the smallest vulnerability could lead to devastating consequences.

(The writer is an eminent cyber and explosives forensic expert. Views personal.)

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