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By:

Amey Chitale

28 October 2024 at 5:29:02 am

El Niño and India’s Economic Future

Even with better forecasting and policy preparedness, El Niño remains a significant risk to agriculture and inflation. With rising temperatures in April, forecasts of the southwest monsoon become a focal point across India. In India monsoon is crucial for agriculture, water availability, food security, and rural incomes. Its performance influences economic activity, stability and welfare and is closely tracked by policymakers, businesses, and farmers. A normal monsoon supports agricultural...

El Niño and India’s Economic Future

Even with better forecasting and policy preparedness, El Niño remains a significant risk to agriculture and inflation. With rising temperatures in April, forecasts of the southwest monsoon become a focal point across India. In India monsoon is crucial for agriculture, water availability, food security, and rural incomes. Its performance influences economic activity, stability and welfare and is closely tracked by policymakers, businesses, and farmers. A normal monsoon supports agricultural production, replenishes reservoirs, boosts rural consumption, and helps contain inflation. Conversely, deficient or delayed rainfall can lower crop yields, raise food prices, strain government finances, and slow growth. Elevated Risk In 2026, climate models highlighted an elevated risk to India owing to potential influence of El Nino on monsoon rainfall. El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate cycle with three phases namely El Nino, La Niña and neutral. During an El Nino event, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean rise above normal levels. This warming alters wind patterns, atmospheric pressure and cloud formation, influencing weather systems worldwide resulting into shifts in rainfall, higher temperatures, drought conditions in some regions and broader impacts on agriculture, food supplies and economic activity across the globe. In La Niña, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes cooler than normal and trade winds usually strengthen. For India, El Nino is usually viewed with concern because it can increase the possibility of below normal or uneven monsoon rainfall. La Niña, on the other hand, is often associated with stronger monsoon conditions, although it can also bring risks such as excess rainfall and floods in some regions. Neither El Nino nor La Niña guarantees a fixed result for India. They influence probability, not certainty. El Nino does not affect every country in the same way. In Indian context the relationship between El Nino and drought is not linear. It increases risk, but the outcome depends on many other factors, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) , local weather systems, sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, and regional atmospheric circulation. Alongside El Nino, IOD is another crucial climate phenomenon that impacts India's rainfall. The IOD measures the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western Indian Ocean, near Africa, and the eastern Indian Ocean, near Indonesia. When the western region is warmer than normal and the eastern region cooler, a positive IOD develops, typically enhancing monsoon rainfall over India and, at times, offsetting some of the adverse effects of El Nino. Conversely, a negative IOD, characterized by warmer waters near Indonesia and cooler waters in the west, can weaken the monsoon and increase the likelihood of below-normal rainfall. Climate Regulator Much like ENSO in the Pacific Ocean, the IOD acts as a climate regulator in the Indian Ocean. Since both El Nino and the IOD influence atmospheric circulation and moisture transport over the subcontinent, meteorologists closely monitor their interaction. Indeed, the strength and distribution of India’s monsoon rainfall often depend on the combined influence of these two ocean-atmosphere systems rather than on El Nino alone. Historical experience shows that strong El Nino episodes have often been associated with weak monsoons and drought conditions in India. The 1982–83 El Nino reduced rainfall to about 81 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA), resulting in widespread crop losses and a sharp decline in agricultural output. The 2002–03 event was equally severe, with rainfall again falling to around 81 percent of the LPA. During the 2009–10 El Nino, India experienced its worst drought in nearly four decades, with monsoon rainfall dropping to 78 percent of the LPA, leading to substantial agricultural losses and higher global food prices. Similarly, the powerful 2015–16 Super El Nino contributed to consecutive years of deficient rainfall, affecting millions through water shortages and reduced farm incomes. However, historical data indicate that fewer than half of all El Nino events since 1951 have resulted in severe drought conditions in India. Although El Nino and IOD are the primary drivers of monsoon variability, scientists have found that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean can also influence India's summer monsoon. This phenomenon is known as an Extratropical North Atlantic SST teleconnection, where ocean temperature changes in one region affect weather patterns thousands of kilometres away. When the North Atlantic experiences warmer-than-normal temperatures, atmospheric circulation patterns over Europe and Eurasia are altered. These changes can affect temperatures over the Eurasian landmass and the Tibetan Plateau, strengthening the land-sea thermal contrast that drives the Indian monsoon. As a result, monsoon winds and rainfall over India may become stronger. Conversely, cooler North Atlantic waters can weaken these processes and suppress rainfall. Although its influence is generally weaker than that of ENSO or the IOD, the North Atlantic acts as an important background climate signal. Modern forecasting models therefore monitor Atlantic SST conditions too to improve the accuracy of seasonal monsoon predictions. After the strong El Nino event of 2023–24, Pacific Ocean conditions moved into a brief La Niña phase during late 2025, which gradually weakened and transitioned to ENSO-neutral conditions in early 2026. However, climate models indicate that El Nino conditions have re-emerged during 2026 and are likely to strengthen through the second half of the year, with some forecasts suggesting the possibility of a strong event by late 2026. The IOD phenomenon is projected to be neutral to mildly positive. The combined impact would have adverse impact on rainfall during the latter part of the season. On the backdrop of current heavy rains, it would be too premature statement to say that El Nino has become weak. Economic Challenges A weak monsoon can trigger wide-ranging economic challenges, with food inflation often emerging as the most immediate impact. Insufficient rainfall reduces the output of key agricultural commodities, thereby adversely impacting food security. Food supply constraints can drive up consumer prices and weaken household purchasing power. Lower farm incomes may also curb rural spending on agricultural inputs, vehicles, and consumer goods, dampening overall economic momentum. Additionally, poor rainfall limits the replenishment of reservoirs and groundwater, exacerbating water shortages and reducing hydropower generation. Higher heatwave risks can further lower labour productivity, while the energy sector faces the combined challenge of rising electricity demand and declining hydropower availability. El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon, but now operates in a world already warmed by climate change. This means its effects may combine with long-term warming, making heatwaves more intense and weather extremes more damaging. WMO has noted that even when La Niña has a temporary cooling influence, human-induced climate change continues to increase global temperatures and intensify extreme weather risks. India’s preparedness against monsoon shocks rests on a robust monitoring and response framework. The Ministry of Agriculture, working with the IMD and ICAR, continuously tracks rainfall, soil moisture, reservoir levels and crop conditions, while vulnerability assessments identify drought-prone districts requiring priority attention. When rainfall risks emerge, District Agriculture Contingency Plans are activated, promoting drought-resistant crops, short-duration seeds, revised sowing schedules and water-conservation measures such as farm ponds, check dams and rainwater harvesting. Livestock and fodder management plans further reduce rural distress. Financial safeguards, including PM-KISAN, PMFBY crop insurance and Kisan Credit Cards, help protect farm incomes and credit access. Complementing these efforts are long-term investments in micro-irrigation, PM-KUSUM solar pumps, climate-resilient agriculture and RBI-led climate-risk frameworks, all of which have strengthened India’s resilience to monsoon variability and El Nino-induced disruptions. That said, El Niño remains a significant risk, making sustained investment in water security, climate-resilient agriculture, early-warning systems and AI-driven forecasting essential. As India pursues its Viksit Bharat dream, climate resilience is no longer an environmental priority but an economic imperative. (The writer is a Chartered Accountant with a leading company in Mumbai. Views personal.)

Growing Risks Of Cyber Warfare

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

In a shocking series of events, multiple coordinated explosions have rocked Lebanon and parts of Syria, killing dozens of people and injuring thousands. The blasts occurred after explosive devices, hidden inside pagers and other radio communication devices, were detonated. The targeted individuals were primarily members of Hezbollah, with the explosions taking place in densely populated areas, resulting in widespread injuries to civilians, including children.

The devices, mainly pagers, walkie-talkies, and radios, had been in the possession of Hezbollah operatives, who had acquired them months prior, under the assumption they were secure. However, Hezbollah has accused Israel’s intelligence agency, Shin Bet, of tampering with the devices during transit.

According to security experts, Israel’s elite secret cyber warfare unit was behind the attack. This unit, known for its global cyber operations, is also linked to the creation of the STUXnet malware, which was responsible for the failure of Iran’s nuclear power plant. The pagers were rigged with explosive materials in place of a battery, and a relay switch was installed, allowing the explosions to be triggered remotely in a synchronized manner. The result was devastating injuries to the eyes, face, hands, and legs of those carrying the devices.

The incident occurred in Hezbollah-stronghold areas, including the Dahieh suburb of Beirut, southern Lebanon, and parts of the Beqaa Valley, with some explosions also reported across the border in Syria. The blasts overwhelmed hospitals, as hundreds of victims sought medical help for injuries ranging from severe burns to shattered limbs. The intensity of the explosions, far beyond that of ordinary battery malfunctions, indicates a highly sophisticated sabotage operation.

These explosions have not only deepened the crisis in Lebanon but have also raised critical questions about supply chain security, intelligence tactics, and the legality of using booby-trapped electronics in conflict zones.


What Are Pagers, and Why Are They Still Preferred?

Despite being old-school tele communication technology, pagers or beepers are still used in many countries, particularly in critical sectors and organizations. Pagers primarily facilitate one-way communication, pager uses higher frequencies than car radios i.e. 400 MHz band frequency. It also used a very basic type of VHF spectrum. These devices operate in restricted areas to transfer messages, alerts, and information. These devices are considered more secure and harder to trace or track compared to mobile phones, as they only receive messages, similar to a car radio that receives signals without revealing the listener’s identity or location. Additionally, pagers lack features like Bluetooth or GPS, making them more difficult to hack or compromise.

Among their many advantages, pagers are known for their long battery life and durability, making them ideal for continuous use in specific industries. There are an estimated two million active pager users worldwide. Hezbollah began using pagers after Israel successfully assassinated a high-ranking Hezbollah target by hacking his cellphone and precisely targeting him with a missile. Since then, many Hezbollah members have switched to more primitive communication devices, like pagers, to avoid being tracked via the internet.


Are Mobile Phones and Smartphones Similarly Vulnerable?

American and European security agencies suggest that, theoretically, it is possible to alter mobile phones and other smart devices to turn them into explosive devices. However, practically, it is more difficult due to the advanced security systems in modern smartphones. A hacked smartphone may exhibit various signs, such as abnormal temperature changes, slower system performance, unexpected reboots, odd sounds during calls, hung applications, or irrelevant messages and pop-ups, all of which could indicate tampering. These security systems make it more challenging to modify smartphones in the same manner as simpler devices like pagers.


New Security Challenges

The Hezbollah pager explosion serves as a wake-up call for sectors involving critical infrastructure and aviation. In an era where smartphones are network-connected and can be charged wirelessly, the possibility of tampering with batteries or embedding explosives, like HMX, PETN and other type of plastic explosives pose significant risks. During flights, even a minor explosion could result in catastrophic consequences. On the ground, the threat extends to damaging nearby aircraft, equipment, and infrastructure. Airport security may soon impose stricter regulations, potentially banning pagers, walkie-talkies, and radios, much like power banks, which are now restricted on flights. In the future, mobile phones may only be allowed in switched-off modes, placed in lithium-safe bags during flights. Suspicious devices could be handled separately in Faraday-sheet bags to block any network or signal connections.

This incident highlights the growing risks of cyber warfare and the dangers posed by everyday communication devices being exploited for sabotage. It is an alarming call for a nation’s security as the treat of such critical infrastructure being handled by terrorist organisations can compromise the use of day-to-day electronics for malicious activities. As technology advances, so must the protocols for ensuring public safety, particularly in high-risk environments where even the smallest vulnerability could lead to devastating consequences.

(The writer is an eminent cyber and explosives forensic expert. Views personal.)

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