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Correspondent

21 August 2024 at 3:50:16 pm

Static Warfare

Maharashtra’s politics has long resembled a murky theatrical production, but its latest act has descended into farce. A purported audio recording released by Maratha reservation activist Manoj Jarange-Patil, allegedly discussing a staggering Rs. 500-crore payment routed to him through Shiv Sena MP Shrikant Shinde, son of Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, has plunged the ruling Mahayuti into fresh turmoil. While the recording’s authenticity remains unverified, the political fallout has...

Static Warfare

Maharashtra’s politics has long resembled a murky theatrical production, but its latest act has descended into farce. A purported audio recording released by Maratha reservation activist Manoj Jarange-Patil, allegedly discussing a staggering Rs. 500-crore payment routed to him through Shiv Sena MP Shrikant Shinde, son of Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, has plunged the ruling Mahayuti into fresh turmoil. While the recording’s authenticity remains unverified, the political fallout has already exposed the fissures beneath the coalition’s carefully cultivated façade of unity. The first imperative is to establish the facts. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has ordered a forensic examination of the recording, including the identities of the speakers and the circumstances in which it was made. The investigation must go beyond determining whether the audio has been manipulated. Its provenance, completeness, context and circulation must also be established. The allegations are extraordinary. Jarange claims that the purported conversation points to efforts to blunt his influence ahead of the 2024 Assembly elections, when his agitation for Maratha reservation had become a significant political force. The recording allegedly refers to Rs. 500 crore being delivered through Shrikant Shinde. Both Eknath Shinde and his son have rejected the allegations, with the latter responding sarcastically that the money never reached him. Jarange, for his part, has denied receiving the sum and demanded an investigation. The recording has surfaced nearly two years after the alleged conversation, reportedly dating to October 2024. Fadnavis has himself questioned why it has emerged now and who stands to benefit. The allegations have become a test of trust within the Mahayuti itself. The BJP and the Shinde-led Shiv Sena remain partners in government, but their relationship is hardly free of friction. Shinde’s transition from chief minister to deputy chief minister after the 2024 Assembly election underscored the BJP’s ascendancy within the alliance. The latest controversy has revived questions about whether competing ambitions and suspicions are undermining the partnership. The danger lies in the ease with which political intrigue can displace governance. An allegation involving Rs. 500 crore is not a routine exchange of partisan accusations. If substantiated, it would raise grave questions about the use of money to influence a social movement and electoral outcomes. The Maratha reservation agitation has had profound consequences for Maharashtra’s social equilibrium. To reduce such a movement to an instrument of electoral management, if that is what occurred, would be a serious indictment of the political establishment. There is a further question that Maharashtra’s political class must confront: why does every major public controversy so quickly become a contest over factional survival? The state’s politics has grown increasingly transactional, shaped by shifting loyalties and the compulsions of coalition management. The government must therefore ensure that the inquiry is independent in substance, not merely forensic in name.

India’s Goldilocks Moment

Writer: Akhilesh Sinha
Akhilesh Sinha
Dec 23, 2025
3 min read

As global peers struggle with inflation or stagnation, India finds growth and stability in a rare alignment.

India’s economy is basking in a rare ‘Goldilocks moment,’ evoking the fairy tale Goldilocks and the Three Bears where conditions are just right, ‘not too hot, not too cold.’ The GDP surges at 7-8 percent without overheating, spurring job creation and maximizing resource utilization. Inflation nestles comfortably in the 2-4 percent sweet spot, safeguarding purchasing power and anchoring interest rates. The rewards cascade investment and consumption boom, stock markets thrive attracting foreign capital, fiscal headroom expands as dearness allowances remain modest and borrowing costs dip, while business confidence soars, heralding sustained stability Amid global headwinds, this phase stands as a beacon of resilience, positioning India for its tryst with destiny as the world's third largest economy and a developed nation by 2047.


A cautionary note persists in the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), which turned negative since November 2025 at minus 0.32 percent, down from 1.21 percent in October 2025 and 2.16 percent a year earlier. The fall reflects easing prices of food articles, fuel, metals, and electricity. Food inflation slid to minus 4.16 percent from 8.31 percent in October, vegetables declined by over 20 percent, and staples such as onions and potatoes saw steep year-on-year drops, easing consumer wallets. Manufactured products softened to 1.33 percent (from 1.54 percent), fuel and power to 2.27% (from 2.55 percent). Cost pressures on industry stay mild, preserving production momentum without aggressive pass-through.


Contrast this with global peers: While the US grapples with sticky core inflation around 3-4 percent despite Fed rate cuts, and Europe battles energy-driven price volatility post-Ukraine, India's WPI softening reflects supply-side strengths like bumper harvests and stable commodity inflows. China's deflationary woes, with producer prices mired at (-) 2.5 percent through late 2025, stem from excess capacity and weak demand, but India's scenario feels more transitional, buoyed by robust domestic consumption. 


Bright Horizons

Retail inflation paints a steadier picture. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose modestly from 0.25 percent to 0.71 percent in November, nudged by food prices. A softening rupee, firmer commodities, and vegetable spikes may lift WPI to a 0.5 percent positive. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), eyeing CPI, has delivered 1.25 percent cumulative rate cuts this fiscal year it upgraded FY 2025-26 GDP to 7.3 percent from 6.8 percent, mirroring Q1’s 7.8 percent and Q2’s 8.2 percent vigor, Inflation forecasts dipped to 2 percent from 2.6 percent, underscoring rapid disinflation. RBI hails this “rare Goldilocks phase” of high growth and low inflation, with its mandate to anchor prices firmly in place.Globally this optimism diverges sharply. The Eurozone’s 2.4 percent CPI masks industrial slowdowns, while Japan’s chronic low inflation (under 1 percent) hampers escape from stagnation. So what gives India an edge? A young demographic dividend fueling 7 percent plus growth, unlike aging Japan or the US’s 2.5 percent plod. RBI’s proactive 100 basis points easing mirrors the Fed's path but from strength, not distress.


Silver Lining

Negative WPI signals deflation - falling prices hinting at softening demand, output, or jobs, Consumers might delay buys, firms pause capex, reminiscent of Japan's ‘lost decades’ where PPI deflation averaged (-) 1 percent for years, trapping growth below 1 percent. Risks loom deferred spending erodes demand, shrinking margins idle capacity, spiking unemployment, real debt burdens swell for borrowers, risking defaults and a deflationary spiral - recession fueling joblessness, further demand collapse, and plunging prices. Central banks hit the zero lower bound, as in the 1930s Great Depression when US prices tumbled 10 percent, amplifying global misery. 


Yet, India's context brims with optimism. Deflation here lightens real debt, empowers savers and lenders as currency appreciates, enables deeper rate cuts to boost exports, like how South Korea leveraged post-1997 deflation for a rebound, and delivers affordable goods, especially aiding the poor. Unlike Japan's debt-laden trap (260 percent debt-to-GDP), India's 80 percent ratio affords maneuverability. Base effects from last year's spikes will fade, and kharif harvests promise food stability. Globally, brief deflations have propelled recoveries: Post-2008, Australia's mild producer price dips preceded a mining boom. 


Experts worldwide laud India's Goldilocks run amid turmoil - US-China trade frictions, Middle East volatility, and Europe's energy crunch. Base effects and food volatility warrant vigilance, but the RBI’s foresight and swift action, including the new rate cuts, are commendable. With the GDP firing on all cylinders, inflation tamed and global peers envious, India hurtles toward third-largest economy status. By 2047, as a developed powerhouse, it will banish inflation woes for its billion-plus citizens, scripting an economic epic that inspires the world.

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