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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

India: The Largest Source of Plastic Pollution Worldwide

So, dear readers, now that we have learnt how and why waste plastic causes pollution, let us look a little deeper into this problem, which has grown out of proportion both globally and locally. Plastic pollution is no longer a distant issue; it has become a serious and immediate threat to our environment.


According to the latest data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and several international researchers, over 460 million metric tonnes of plastic are produced worldwide every year. This plastic is used in a wide range of applications, many of which are short-lived and quickly discarded.


From this, an estimated 20–23 million metric tonnes of plastic waste end up in the environment annually. This figure is expected to increase sharply by 2040 if strong measures are not taken. Plastic litter is now found everywhere—on land, in rivers, in oceans, and even in the air as microplastics.


Although plastic pollution is a global problem, Mera Mahan Bharat is sadly at the forefront of this crisis. A recent paper published in Nature states that India has become the world’s largest contributor to plastic pollution, accounting for nearly 20% of the total global plastic waste.


India generates about 9.3 million tonnes of plastic waste every year. This is more than the waste produced by many regions. Of this, nearly 3.5 million tonnes are improperly discarded and mismanaged, meaning they are neither collected nor scientifically processed.


Plastic waste in India has been rising at an alarming rate due to rapid urbanisation, population growth, and economic development. In cities, the demand for single-use plastics and packaging materials has increased drastically, driven by convenience and changing lifestyles.


India’s per capita plastic consumption has reached around 11 kg per year and is expected to grow further with increasing industrialisation and consumerism. This trend places enormous pressure on our already overburdened waste management systems. The major factors responsible for the sharp increase in plastic pollution in India are as follows.


Single-Use Plastics

Single-use plastics, such as polythene carry bags, straws, disposable cutlery, cups, and packaging materials, form a large share of India’s plastic waste. Despite regulatory bans and restrictions, nearly 43% of the country’s total plastic waste still comes from single-use plastics. This clearly shows that the problem lies not only in policy-making but also in enforcement and implementation.


The continued dominance of single-use plastics is largely due to weak monitoring and the lack of affordable, easily available alternatives. Many small vendors, shopkeepers, and consumers still find plastic to be the cheapest and most convenient option for daily use.


Although the government introduced a ban on selected single-use plastic items in 2022, its impact on the ground has been limited. These products are still widely manufactured, sold, and used because they are inexpensive, lightweight, and readily available in local markets, making the ban difficult to enforce consistently.


Open Burning and Landfilling:

About 5.8 million tonnes of plastic waste are openly burnt across India every year, mainly in rural areas and urban slums. This practice is extremely dangerous, as it not only worsens air pollution but also releases highly toxic chemicals into the atmosphere. These pollutants directly harm local communities and add to climate change.


In addition, nearly 30% of total plastic waste is dumped in uncontrolled landfills. Such sites are not scientifically managed, allowing harmful chemicals to seep into the soil and nearby water bodies. Over time, this contaminates groundwater, damages ecosystems, and poses serious risks to human and animal life. During the winter months, it is common to see people collecting wood and dry leaf litter from the streets, lighting small fires, and sitting around them for warmth. However, plastic bottles, wrappers, and polythene bags often get mixed in and are burnt along with the leaves. Most people are unaware that they are not only polluting the environment but also inhaling toxic fumes from very close distances.


The smoke from burning plastic contains harmful substances that can cause respiratory problems, eye irritation, skin issues, and even long-term diseases such as cancer. Open burning of plastic is therefore one of the most hazardous practices for human health and environmental safety.


Besides these factors, inefficient waste management infrastructure, discrepancies in data reporting, and heavy dependence on informal waste handling systems further worsen the problem. We will explore these issues in greater detail next week.


Till then, have a good weekend!


(The author is an environmentalist. Views Personal.)

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