A report by the Azim Premji University warns Mumbai could see 16.8 percent rise in southwest monsoon rainfall by 2040. Mumbai: The city could witness a 16.8 percent increase in southwest monsoon rainfall by 2040, according to a climate crisis report released by the School of Climate Change and Sustainability at Azim Premji University. The report, titled Indian Coastal Region: Climate Protection 2021–2040, was discussed on Friday during a session led by scientist and professor Santonu Goswami. The study examined the growing impact of climate change on citizens, ecosystems and traditional livelihoods across India’s coastal regions. The report states that suburban Mumbai is projected to experience summer maximum temperatures rising by 1.3°C by 2040, alongside intensified monsoon activity and longer periods of heavy rainfall. Researchers estimate that the city could face almost an additional week of intense rain during the monsoon season. Wider Shifts The findings also point to wider climatic shifts across western India. Surat and Bhavnagar in Gujarat are expected to witness southwest monsoon surges of 23 percent and 24 percent, respectively. According to the report, rising wet-bulb temperatures - a measure combining heat and humidity that determines the body’s ability to cool itself through sweating - are already making several regions increasingly vulnerable. Researchers warned that traditional knowledge systems, including Kerala’s Nakaih wind calendar, are becoming unreliable because of erratic weather patterns. “The window for adaptation is rapidly narrowing,” said Goswami, warning that the 1.5°C warming threshold could soon be reached across India’s administrative regions. The report highlights a range of climate threats facing coastal India, including rising temperatures, dangerous wet-bulb heat, intensified west coast monsoons, sea-level rise, coastal erosion, salinity intrusion, cyclone risks and growing public health concerns. Traditional livelihoods are also under strain. Members of Mumbai’s Koli fishing community have reported business losses as unpredictable rainfall disrupts the traditional drying of prawns. Goswami stressed the need for accessible climate data to strengthen local resilience planning. “Climate data democracy is essential for climate action. We are in the middle of a data tsunami. Yet we are not at a stage where anyone interested can readily download data,” he said. He added that governments, policymakers, journalists, students and activists would all play a crucial role in driving climate action. Anurag Behar, CEO of the Azim Premji Foundation, said climate change was no longer a distant concern. “Climate change is not some distant future challenge but the reality of today. 2040 is just 14 years away,” he said. Shashwat DC, Head of Research Communications at the School of Climate Change and Sustainability, called for urgent investment in climate-resilient infrastructure. “We need to think about our infrastructure for some time. We need a discussion on climate resilient infrastructure,” he said. He further noted that the climate crisis disproportionately affects daily wage labourers and gig workers, who remain among the most vulnerable to extreme weather events.
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