Commuters navigate a waterlogged road after heavy rainfall at Vasai-Virar on Wednesday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: Belying gloomy forecasts of a potentially devastating monsoon 2026 season, a ‘neutral’ Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – an ocean-atmosphere phenomena – may have helped soften the impact of a brutal El Nino over the sub-continent. As reported by ‘The Perfect Voice’ (May 31), a ‘very strong’ El Nino threatened to overshadow the rainy season with erratic rains, uneven spread, heat waves, farm distress and fresh inflationary pressures on the economy, but was likely to be neutralized by the IOD. Considering the recent 10-days of torrential downpour in large parts of western and southern India, experts are optimistic that the IOD may help salvage this year’s monsoon, as it did in the past. The forecasts of a neutral IOD in May-June have proved true and meteorologists are hopeful that it may even turn positive as the season progresses and the rains cover the entire country in July. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said today: “Conditions are favourable for the further advance of Southwest Monsoon into the remaining parts of the north Arabian Sea, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and the rest of the country in the next 2-3 days.” Forecast models indicated a ‘strong to very strong’ El Nino by the year-end, and earlier even the IMD had placed India dangerously close to ‘deficient rainfall’ category this year. The current spell of heavy rains has brought smiles with water bodies filling up quickly in Maharashtra. Even the worried Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) announced a 41+ pc water storage today – lighting up Mumbaikars, though apprehensions persist over the rest of the season. Active Phase However, the waxing and waning of the monsoon rainfall is a normal process and the monsoon is currently in the ‘active phase’ due to multiple weather systems, according to climatologist Kartiki Negi, Lead, Climate Impact at Climate Trends. “Monsoon 2026 began under the threat of a strong El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean, but we must not forget the impact of climate change that has altered the character of the monsoon forever,” Negi told ‘The Perfect Voice’. The Pacific Ocean rapidly warmed toward El Niño conditions after a rare year of climatic transition. India began the year under weak La Nina conditions, shifted into ENSO-neutral conditions, and is now moving into El Nino territory in the second half of 2026 - itself a rare sequence in a single calendar year, experts said. Explaining the scenario this year, Negi said: “During the ‘active phases’ of monsoon, we will see high-intensity events in shorter duration. El Niño is also known for temporarily enhancing global temperatures. The number of rainy days will be less but spells of extremely heavy rains cannot be ruled out”. Incidentally, in the past 75 years, the world has seen only four ‘Super El Ninos’ - in 1982, 1991, 1997 and 2015 seasons. What is El Niño A battle between the weather conditions of the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean often decides the monsoon rain quota for India – whether there will be abundant rainfall or drought conditions – directly hitting agriculture, economy and the people. The culprit is El Nino, which develops when the eastern Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm, the heated air alters the global wind patterns, weakening the moisture-laden monsoon winds headed towards India – with potentially disastrous consequences. Its opposite phase is La Nina, which cools the Pacific Ocean, boosts Indian monsoon and results in widespread and intense rainfall. However, there is a buffer close by – the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – which can help balance the conditions in the western Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia. In a positive IOD, warmer waters near Africa and cooler waters near Indonesia generate stronger rain-bearing winds towards India and help offset the negative effects of El Nino – as in 2019, when India escaped a drought. But during a negative IOD, the rainfall moves towards Indonesia, and when it happens during an El Nino year, India can face a huge risk of severe drought. This year, the IOD is in a neutral phase currently, and experts are hopeful it may turn positive over the coming months, thus sparing India of the spectre of a major drought, despite the El Nino. As an expert said: “Even a slight change in sea surface temperature thousands of kms away can affect the rice on our plates…”
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