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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Fractured Fortress

Jan Suraaj chief Prashant Kishor’s emphatic victory in the Bankipur by-poll, that ended three decades of uninterrupted BJP dominance, is a classic instance when even the safest urban strongholds of a comfortably ensconced ruling party are no longer immune to local discontent and shifting social coalitions. That said, the parallels between Bankipur and the 2023 Kasba Peth bypoll are too striking to dismiss as isolated by-election quirks. In the latter case, the BJP had similarly conceded a...

Fractured Fortress

Jan Suraaj chief Prashant Kishor’s emphatic victory in the Bankipur by-poll, that ended three decades of uninterrupted BJP dominance, is a classic instance when even the safest urban strongholds of a comfortably ensconced ruling party are no longer immune to local discontent and shifting social coalitions. That said, the parallels between Bankipur and the 2023 Kasba Peth bypoll are too striking to dismiss as isolated by-election quirks. In the latter case, the BJP had similarly conceded a seemingly surefire seat that had remained in its grasp since 1995. Both defeats followed the departure of long-serving legislators. Both occurred in constituencies where the BJP began as the overwhelming favourite. By-elections are notoriously unreliable predictors of general elections as their turnout is generally lower, and local grievances loom larger while voters often feel freer to register dissatisfaction without changing governments. Yet they remain valuable political barometers because they reveal the health of party organisations beneath the sheen of national leadership. Bankipur is especially significant because like Kasba Peth in Pune, it represented the party’s urban, upper-caste heartland in Bihar. Prashant Kishor’s victory, therefore, carries symbolism beyond its numerical margin. Making his electoral debut, he converted what had long been considered an impregnable BJP constituency into the Jan Suraaj Party’s most consequential victory. The explanation lies less in ideological realignment than in coalition management. The BJP has, in recent years, sought to broaden its social base by expanding its appeal among the lower caste, economically disadvantaged caste groups. That strategy has served it well nationally, particularly in states where expanding beyond traditional support was essential for electoral growth. Yet every expansion creates new anxieties among an established base. Just as in the Kasba bypoll, the Bankipur result suggests that sections of upper-caste voters, long regarded as among the BJP’s most dependable supporters, felt increasingly alienated. Their perception was that the BJP’s electoral calculations had shifted decisively towards cultivating newer caste constituencies. Kasba Peth offered an earlier version of the same lesson. The BJP entered the contest expecting organisational strength and historical advantage to outweigh local dissatisfaction. Instead, the opposition successfully transformed the by-election into a referendum on complacency, exploiting organisational fatigue and local resentment. Bankipur appears to follow a similar script. Candidate selection became contentious, local anti-incumbency lingered beneath the surface, and the opposition presented itself as the vehicle for voters seeking to send a message rather than engineer a regime change. While this, in no way, implies an imminent collapse of the BJP’s broader electoral dominance, dominant parties ignore by-election warnings at their peril. Safe seats are valuable not because they guarantee victories, but because they reveal the strength of a party’s deepest political relationships.

Knives out in legislature

Updated: Mar 21, 2025

Disha Salian

Mumbai: Death of celebrity manager Disha Salian in 2020 once again rocked the Maharashtra legislature on Thursday. While cabinet ministers Nitesh Rane and Shambhuraj Desai demanded that Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Aditya Thackeray be arrested in the case, BJP MLA Amit Satam in the assembly and another BJP member Chitra Wagh in the council demanded that the report of SIT to probe Salian’s death be made public.


Incidentally, amidst repeated disruptions in both the houses, some members from the treasury benches were seen speaking in favour of Aditya Thackeray, while Shiv Sena (UBT) members like Adv Anil Parab were seen supporting the BJP members’ demand that the report of the SIT probe be made public. In addition, there were allegations and counter allegations and personal accusations among members from the treasury and opposition benches which led to heated debate on occasions.


The opposition termed the attempts from the treasury benches to link Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Aditya Thackeray’s name in the case, as a ‘conspiracy’.


“I think this matter has gone to the court. We have no idea what he (Disha’s father) has said, but Aaditya Thackeray is a mature leader, a young leader. The Bharatiya Janata Party is conspiring to defame him by putting pressure on him. We don’t need to answer to this conspiracy. The court will answer,” Ambadas Danve said.


Earlier in the day, when the house gathered for the business, Minister of State for Home appraised the assembly of the status in this case. “SIT has been formed to probe in the case. Their report has not been received as yet. However, the government shall act according to directives from the court,” the minister told the house.


Another BJP minister Nitesh Rane, however, said that since Satish Salian has levelled allegations against an MVA minister, that leader be treated like a common person and that everybody should be treated equally before the law. Shiv Sena minister Shambhuraj Desai too supported the demand. “Since the allegations are grave, the person in question should be immediately arrested and the case be investigated,” he said.


Later, while speaking to media in the legislature premises, Rane asked Uddhav Thackeray to come clean on the issue. “If they say that we are politicizing the issue, Uddhav Thackeray should also tell the people why he had called, not just once but twice, to the then union minister Narayan Rane urging him to save his son?” Rane said.


He also accused the opposition of shying away from coming clean on the issue. “If they feel that we are not telling the truth, they should say so in the house. But they are shying away from doing so. Bhaskar Jadhav, who is always aggressive, was nowhere to be seen when this issue came up in the house. Sunil Prabhu too escaped the house under the pretext of a phone call. I challenge them to say that whatever I said on the issue is wrong,” Rane said.


He also said that Aditya Thackeray should resign on moral grounds till his name is cleared in the case.


BJP MLA Amit Satam demanded that the details of the SIT probe be made public so that the people would know if the probe is headed in right direction.


Interestingly, while the ruling parties were targeting the opposition in the case, senior BJP leader Sudhir Mungantiwar surprised all with his unexpected support to Thackerays. “I do not have any evidences in the case. But if her father has made any fresh allegations that needs to be investigated thoroughly. The assembly can discuss the issue at length tomorrow. In the meanwhile, members like Rane, who seem to have some evidences in the case should hand them over to the investigating agencies and help the probe,” he told the house.


Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Gaikwad and Sheetal Mhatre too toed the line and demanded that more and more evidences should come forth.


Similarly, when members of treasury benches were pushing for revealing the details of the probe till date to the public, Shiv Sena (UBT) member Anil Parab supported the demand. “Doing that shall conclusively prove the innocence of Aditya Thackeray,” he said.

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