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By:

Abhijit Joshi

31 August 2024 at 10:09:24 am

The Pawar Paradox Never Ends

As speculation over Sharad Pawar’s equations with the NDA resurfaces, Maharashtra is reminded that its most enduring political constant has always been uncertainty. There is an old Mumbai saying that seasoned political observers have long enjoyed repeating: “Ghode ki laath aur boss ki baat par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never trust a horse’s kick or a boss’ word; either can come without warning). If Maharashtra’s politicians were updating the proverb today, one more cautionary line would...

The Pawar Paradox Never Ends

As speculation over Sharad Pawar’s equations with the NDA resurfaces, Maharashtra is reminded that its most enduring political constant has always been uncertainty. There is an old Mumbai saying that seasoned political observers have long enjoyed repeating: “Ghode ki laath aur boss ki baat par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never trust a horse’s kick or a boss’ word; either can come without warning). If Maharashtra’s politicians were updating the proverb today, one more cautionary line would surely be included: “Sharad Pawar ke siyasi faisle par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never assume you know Sharad Pawar's next political move). Few leaders in independent India have reinvented themselves as often, confounded both allies and adversaries with equal regularity, or remained politically relevant across nearly five decades quite like Sharad Pawar. Every major realignment in Maharashtra has, in one way or another, borne his imprint. Backstairs Intrigue That reputation has once again set the state’s political circles buzzing. A late-night meeting between senior NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) leader Jayant Patil and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, followed by indications that Pawar's party could extend conditional support to the Centre's proposed Delimitation Bill, has revived speculation that Maharashtra may be headed towards yet another political reshuffle. Supriya Sule has firmly dismissed suggestions that her party is preparing to join the NDA, insisting that any support for the Delimitation Bill would depend entirely on safeguards ensuring fairness for every state. Yet, the rumours persist. That, perhaps, is the enduring ‘Pawar effect.’ In Maharashtra, a single meeting involving Sharad Pawar is often enough to trigger discussions of an entirely new government. Pawar’s political career has consistently demonstrated that certainty is an illusion. In 1978, barely 38 years old, he engineered one of Maharashtra’s greatest political upsets. Breaking away from the Congress, he toppled the Vasantdada Patil government and stitched together the Progressive Democratic Front, or Pulod, by bringing together parties separated by ideology but united by arithmetic. He became the state’s youngest Chief Minister, a distinction that still defines his public image. That episode also revealed the two principles that have shaped his politics ever since. Ideology, for Pawar, has rarely been an immovable barrier. Political arithmetic has almost always mattered more. Equally, power has never been viewed as permanent. The pattern repeated itself through the decades. Pawar moved between Congress politics and regional politics with remarkable ease, served as India’s Defence Minister, broke away to establish the Nationalist Congress Party in 1999 over Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin, spent nearly fifteen years governing alongside the Congress, and then stunned the political establishment yet again in 2019 by helping construct the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Few believed the Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP could coexist under one roof. Pawar proved otherwise. Even the dramatic dawn swearing-in of Devendra Fadnavis and the late Ajit Pawar in November 2019 ultimately enhanced Sharad Pawar’s reputation. Within days, he had reunited most of his fractured party and succeeded in installing Uddhav Thackeray as Chief Minister. What initially appeared to be his biggest setback became another demonstration of his political resilience. Today, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP is no longer the formidable organisation it was before the split of 2023. While he retains considerable public goodwill, national stature and a respectable parliamentary presence, his legislative strength within Maharashtra has diminished considerably, prompted questions about the party’s future. Reports suggest that sections within the NCP (SP) are increasingly uncomfortable with the prospect of remaining in perpetual opposition and favour exploring some form of understanding with the BJP. Pawar himself is believed to have resisted such suggestions, while Supriya Sule has repeatedly ruled out any immediate shift. Yet the existence of internal debate appears difficult to dismiss. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has publicly asserted that there is no question of new entrants joining the Mahayuti. His statement reflects political logic. The BJP already enjoys numerical dominance alongside Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. Bringing Sharad Pawar into the alliance may strengthen the NDA externally, but it could also generate fresh leadership ambitions, competing centres of influence and unnecessary internal tensions. Issue-Based Cooperation If there is any movement, therefore, it is more likely to begin with issue-based cooperation in Parliament than with an immediate formal alliance. That explains why the Delimitation Bill has assumed such significance. Supriya Sule has indicated that her party could support the legislation provided the Centre guarantees a uniform 50 percent increase in parliamentary seats for every state. The position differs from that adopted by several INDIA bloc partners and has naturally fuelled speculation. Yet issue-based support should not automatically be interpreted as political surrender. Sharad Pawar has rarely subscribed to the idea that opposition requires opposing every government initiative. Throughout his career he has maintained working relationships across party lines, often separating legislative cooperation from electoral competition. That flexibility has repeatedly helped him preserve political relevance even when his party's electoral fortunes fluctuated. If, despite present denials, Pawar eventually chooses to support or formally align with the NDA, the consequences would extend well beyond Maharashtra. For the INDIA bloc, it would represent perhaps the most damaging psychological blow in western India, depriving it of one of its most experienced strategists and consensus-builders. Congress would lose a veteran ally at precisely the moment it is attempting to rebuild its organisational strength in Maharashtra. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) could find itself increasingly isolated, forcing a reassessment of both alliances and political strategy before the next Assembly election. And for the BJP, it would amount to the political neutralisation of perhaps its most accomplished regional rival. Sharad Pawar’s greatest political strength has always been his refusal to close any door before absolutely necessary. Strategic ambiguity has been one of its principal instruments. At 85, he remains among the last practitioners of an older style of coalition politics, where negotiation often counts for more than confrontation, and where tomorrow’s ally may well have been yesterday’s fiercest opponent. (The writer is a political observer. Views personal.

NCPs merger plan in limbo

Mumbai: With dizzying political developments this week, the proposed re-unification of Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (SP) with Sunetra Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party appears to be in a limbo – due to power politics on both sides.

 

The whispered talks of the merger – laid bare by Sharad Pawar himself today in his explosive media interaction – triggered a furious and urgent race to secure organisational control of the NCP.

 

In barely 72 hours after Ajit Pawar’s passing on Wednesday (Jan. 28), Sunetra Ajit Pawar was catapulted as the party President, Legislative Party Leader and as the state’s first woman Deputy Chief Minister, catching even the seasoned NCP (SP) leaders by surprise.

 

Many in the Opposition feel that it was apparently cold fear among the NCP big brass that the NCP (SP) leaders - comprising Supriye Sule, Jayant R. Patil, Dr. Jitendra Awhad and others - would attempt to lord over the merged entity and dump them.

 

The haste at which the NCP leaders with the familiar coterie of Praful Patel, Sunil Tatkare and a handful of Ajit Pawar loyalists moved after his death was to make a pre-emptive strike and grab control of the party before the grief and dust settled, leaving the other (NCP-SP) side not time to even start its own manoeuvres.

 

By effecting a ‘smooth, seamless succession’ through quicky decisions, the wily group managed to effectively dominate the organization, and, by extension, somewhat over Sunetra Pawar, widely viewed as a political greenhorn.

 

All these would have been impossible had the two factions merged on February 12, - as Sharad Pawar revealed – as the unified NCP would have diluted Patel and Tatkare’s leverage.

 

Not Routine

Sharad Pawar’s expose was not a routine affair, but a calculated political intervention, with each statement striking as sharp as a double-edged razor. By claiming ignorance of the swearing-in ceremony, he distanced his faction from the unfolding drama, and kept his flock intact, for now at least.

 

Again, by naming Patel and Tatkare as the architects of the planned merger, he stopped them from any possible denials, and the remark about the tearing hurry was an indirect signal that Patel, Tatkare and even the Bharatiya Janata Party could be scared of a reunified and stronger party. It also restored Sharad Pawar’s moral and organisational authority.

 

Feb 12 Schedule 

The most disturbing part was Sharad Pawar stating that the merger was scheduled for Feb. 12; a clear message to the party workers in both factions how the series of developments in the past three days could be viewed as a betrayal of Ajit Pawar’s final intent before his last journey.

 

Willy-nilly, he painted the NCP (SP) as the legitimate ‘inheritor’ of Ajitdada’s political legacy while Patel-Tatkare may be the ‘usurpers’.

 

Added to it was the fact - that Sunetra Pawar purportedly kept aloof from the Sharad Pawar family since Ajit Pawar’ ashes were immersed – could isolate her politically, and push her into relying more on the NCP strategists who unilaterally managed the show in the past three days.

 

The fallout of the series of political moves is significant as even within NCP (SP), murmurs of discontent are growing, which may be ripe for exploitation not just by the Sunetra Pawar group but also by the BJP, which has its own independent reasons to destabilise rival entities.

 

The NCP ‘succession series’ may also upset Sharad Pawar’s long-cherished desire to hand over the reins to Supriya Sule - either as a dominant force in Maharashtra or as a heavyweight at the Centre.

 

The current focus is on Sunetra Pawar – but Sharad Pawar has firmly indicated that it's still too early to write him off.

 


“I personally do not see that will happen. The NCP leadership was with Ajit Pawar and now with Sunetra Pawar Ji. I don't see Mr Sharad Pawar being invited to join the NCP, given that he has lost the people's trust and the vote.”

Piyush Goyal, Union Minister, Commerce


"We have nothing to say on this matter right now."

Sunil Tatkare, Leader, NCP


“All discussions were held at our level, but it now appears the process may hit a roadblock following the (plane) accident. The talks were progressing in a positive direction, but the accident adversely affected the process. It was Ajit's wish to unite the two factions, and now it is our wish that his wish should be fulfilled.”

Sharad Pawar, Chief, NCP (SP)

 

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