top of page

By:

Abhijit Joshi

31 August 2024 at 10:09:24 am

The Pawar Paradox Never Ends

As speculation over Sharad Pawar’s equations with the NDA resurfaces, Maharashtra is reminded that its most enduring political constant has always been uncertainty. There is an old Mumbai saying that seasoned political observers have long enjoyed repeating: “Ghode ki laath aur boss ki baat par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never trust a horse’s kick or a boss’ word; either can come without warning). If Maharashtra’s politicians were updating the proverb today, one more cautionary line would...

The Pawar Paradox Never Ends

As speculation over Sharad Pawar’s equations with the NDA resurfaces, Maharashtra is reminded that its most enduring political constant has always been uncertainty. There is an old Mumbai saying that seasoned political observers have long enjoyed repeating: “Ghode ki laath aur boss ki baat par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never trust a horse’s kick or a boss’ word; either can come without warning). If Maharashtra’s politicians were updating the proverb today, one more cautionary line would surely be included: “Sharad Pawar ke siyasi faisle par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never assume you know Sharad Pawar's next political move). Few leaders in independent India have reinvented themselves as often, confounded both allies and adversaries with equal regularity, or remained politically relevant across nearly five decades quite like Sharad Pawar. Every major realignment in Maharashtra has, in one way or another, borne his imprint. Backstairs Intrigue That reputation has once again set the state’s political circles buzzing. A late-night meeting between senior NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) leader Jayant Patil and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, followed by indications that Pawar's party could extend conditional support to the Centre's proposed Delimitation Bill, has revived speculation that Maharashtra may be headed towards yet another political reshuffle. Supriya Sule has firmly dismissed suggestions that her party is preparing to join the NDA, insisting that any support for the Delimitation Bill would depend entirely on safeguards ensuring fairness for every state. Yet, the rumours persist. That, perhaps, is the enduring ‘Pawar effect.’ In Maharashtra, a single meeting involving Sharad Pawar is often enough to trigger discussions of an entirely new government. Pawar’s political career has consistently demonstrated that certainty is an illusion. In 1978, barely 38 years old, he engineered one of Maharashtra’s greatest political upsets. Breaking away from the Congress, he toppled the Vasantdada Patil government and stitched together the Progressive Democratic Front, or Pulod, by bringing together parties separated by ideology but united by arithmetic. He became the state’s youngest Chief Minister, a distinction that still defines his public image. That episode also revealed the two principles that have shaped his politics ever since. Ideology, for Pawar, has rarely been an immovable barrier. Political arithmetic has almost always mattered more. Equally, power has never been viewed as permanent. The pattern repeated itself through the decades. Pawar moved between Congress politics and regional politics with remarkable ease, served as India’s Defence Minister, broke away to establish the Nationalist Congress Party in 1999 over Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin, spent nearly fifteen years governing alongside the Congress, and then stunned the political establishment yet again in 2019 by helping construct the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Few believed the Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP could coexist under one roof. Pawar proved otherwise. Even the dramatic dawn swearing-in of Devendra Fadnavis and the late Ajit Pawar in November 2019 ultimately enhanced Sharad Pawar’s reputation. Within days, he had reunited most of his fractured party and succeeded in installing Uddhav Thackeray as Chief Minister. What initially appeared to be his biggest setback became another demonstration of his political resilience. Today, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP is no longer the formidable organisation it was before the split of 2023. While he retains considerable public goodwill, national stature and a respectable parliamentary presence, his legislative strength within Maharashtra has diminished considerably, prompted questions about the party’s future. Reports suggest that sections within the NCP (SP) are increasingly uncomfortable with the prospect of remaining in perpetual opposition and favour exploring some form of understanding with the BJP. Pawar himself is believed to have resisted such suggestions, while Supriya Sule has repeatedly ruled out any immediate shift. Yet the existence of internal debate appears difficult to dismiss. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has publicly asserted that there is no question of new entrants joining the Mahayuti. His statement reflects political logic. The BJP already enjoys numerical dominance alongside Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. Bringing Sharad Pawar into the alliance may strengthen the NDA externally, but it could also generate fresh leadership ambitions, competing centres of influence and unnecessary internal tensions. Issue-Based Cooperation If there is any movement, therefore, it is more likely to begin with issue-based cooperation in Parliament than with an immediate formal alliance. That explains why the Delimitation Bill has assumed such significance. Supriya Sule has indicated that her party could support the legislation provided the Centre guarantees a uniform 50 percent increase in parliamentary seats for every state. The position differs from that adopted by several INDIA bloc partners and has naturally fuelled speculation. Yet issue-based support should not automatically be interpreted as political surrender. Sharad Pawar has rarely subscribed to the idea that opposition requires opposing every government initiative. Throughout his career he has maintained working relationships across party lines, often separating legislative cooperation from electoral competition. That flexibility has repeatedly helped him preserve political relevance even when his party's electoral fortunes fluctuated. If, despite present denials, Pawar eventually chooses to support or formally align with the NDA, the consequences would extend well beyond Maharashtra. For the INDIA bloc, it would represent perhaps the most damaging psychological blow in western India, depriving it of one of its most experienced strategists and consensus-builders. Congress would lose a veteran ally at precisely the moment it is attempting to rebuild its organisational strength in Maharashtra. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) could find itself increasingly isolated, forcing a reassessment of both alliances and political strategy before the next Assembly election. And for the BJP, it would amount to the political neutralisation of perhaps its most accomplished regional rival. Sharad Pawar’s greatest political strength has always been his refusal to close any door before absolutely necessary. Strategic ambiguity has been one of its principal instruments. At 85, he remains among the last practitioners of an older style of coalition politics, where negotiation often counts for more than confrontation, and where tomorrow’s ally may well have been yesterday’s fiercest opponent. (The writer is a political observer. Views personal.

Pak foreign minister says chances of revival of conflict with India 'remote'

  • PTI
  • Jun 4, 2025
  • 3 min read


Islamabad: Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar on Wednesday said that the chance of revival of an armed conflict between Pakistan and India is remote but warned of a befitting response in case of any such development.


Dar's comment came while responding to a question during his press conference giving details of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's recent visit to Turkiye, Iran, Azerbaijan and Tajikistan and to thank the respective leadership for support during the last month's conflict with India following the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 people.


When asked about a possible new round of fighting, Dar said that he could not predict the future but the chances of any such possibility are slim.


¿The ceasefire is holding and all steps regarding withdrawal of troops have been implemented by the two sides in letter and spirit. So there is no chance (of new war) in my opinion,¿ he said. ¿However, we will give a befitting reply if India resorts to armed conflict.¿


He said Pakistan was ready for dialogue with India, but not desperate for it, adding that Pakistan seeks a composite dialogue that includes terrorism as well as other issues, including Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).


He also claimed the IWT cannot be suspended.


Soon after the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, India announced abeyance of the IWT among other punitive measures.


The IWT was signed in 1960 by the two countries to address the water dispute between them and to share the waters of the six main rivers of the Indus basin.


The minister reiterated the offer for a neutral probe into the Pahalgam incident, which led to the recent escalation between Pakistan and India.


Dar, who is also the Deputy Prime Minister, claimed while Pakistan's kinetic action has been appreciated, its diplomatic efforts have also earned international recognition.


The minister also appreciated the role played by the US, UK, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Iran and other countries during the conflict and bringing peace.


Dar announced that Prime Minister Sharif was set to visit Saudi Arabia during the next 24 hours to thank its leadership for its positive role during hostilities with India.


Speaking about Sharif's recent four-nation tour, Dar said the Prime Minister undertook a visit to Turkiye, Iran, Azerbaijan and Tajikistan to express Pakistan's gratitude for the solidarity expressed by these countries during the conflict with India.


He also praised the diplomatic outreach led by former foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, which, he said, ¿has garnered international acclaim for its clarity.¿


Tensions between India and Pakistan escalated after the Pahalgam terror attack, with India carrying out precision strikes on terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in the early hours of May 7.


Pakistan attempted to attack Indian military bases on May 8, 9, and 10. The Indian side strongly responded to the Pakistani attempts by inflicting heavy damage to a number of key Pakistani military installations, including air bases, air defence systems, command and control centres and radar sites.


Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri on May 10 announced that India and Pakistan reached an understanding to stop all firings and military actions on land, air and sea, with immediate effect.


Starting May 22, India tasked seven multi-party delegations to visit 33 global capitals to reach out to the international community on Pakistan's designs and India's response to terror after the Pahalgam terror attack.


Pakistan too announced last month to send a team of experts to foreign capitals to inform the world about the four-day conflict with India and also highlight its point of view regarding the conflict.

Comments

bottom of page