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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This...

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This development, confirmed by high-ranking party insiders, follows the realization that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) effectively ceded its claims on the Kalyan-Dombivali Municipal Corporation (KDMC) to protect the alliance, facilitating a “Mumbai for BJP, Kalyan for Shinde” power-sharing formula. The compromise marks a complete role reversal between the BJP and the Shiv Sena. Both the political parties were in alliance with each other for over 25 years before 2017 civic polls. Back then the BJP used to get the post of Deputy Mayor while the Shiv Sena always enjoyed the mayor’s position. In 2017 a surging BJP (82 seats) had paused its aggression to support the undivided Shiv Sena (84 seats), preferring to be out of power in the Corporation to keep the saffron alliance intact. Today, the numbers dictate a different reality. In the recently concluded elections BJP emerged as the single largest party in Mumbai with 89 seats, while the Shinde faction secured 29. Although the Shinde faction acted as the “kingmaker”—pushing the alliance past the majority mark of 114—the sheer numerical gap made their claim to the mayor’s post untenable in the long run. KDMC Factor The catalyst for this truce lies 40 kilometers north of Mumbai in Kalyan-Dombivali, a region considered the impregnable fortress of Eknath Shinde and his son, MP Shrikant Shinde. While the BJP performed exceptionally well in KDMC, winning 50 seats compared to the Shinde faction’s 53, the lotter for the reservation of mayor’s post in KDMC turned the tables decisively in favor of Shiv Sena there. In the lottery, the KDMC mayor’ post went to be reserved for the Scheduled Tribe candidate. The BJP doesn’t have any such candidate among elected corporatros in KDMC. This cleared the way for Shiv Sena. Also, the Shiv Sena tied hands with the MNS in the corporation effectively weakening the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s alliance with them. Party insiders suggest that once it became clear the BJP would not pursue the KDMC Mayor’s chair—effectively acknowledging it as Shinde’s fiefdom—he agreed to scale down his demands in the capital. “We have practically no hope of installing a BJP Mayor in Kalyan-Dombivali without shattering the alliance locally,” a Mumbai BJP secretary admitted and added, “Letting the KDMC become Shinde’s home turf is the price for securing the Mumbai Mayor’s bungalow for a BJP corporator for the first time in history.” The formal elections for the Mayoral posts are scheduled for later this month. While the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—led by the Shiv Sena (UBT)—has vowed to field candidates, the arithmetic heavily favors the ruling alliance. For Eknath Shinde, accepting the Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai is a tactical retreat. It allows him to consolidate his power in the MMR belt (Thane and Kalyan) while remaining a partner in Mumbai’s governance. For the BJP, this is a crowning moment; after playing second fiddle in the BMC for decades, they are poised to finally install their own “First Citizen” of Mumbai.

Pending Retribution

The shocking massacre of more than 25 citizens, mostly tourists, in a terror attack in Pahalgam was a grisly reminder that Pakistan’s subterranean war machinery remains alive and well. As the nation seethes for retribution against its hostile neighbour for this wanton and brutal act, the first salvo from the Narendra Modi government has not come across the Line of Control, but through the sluice gates of geopolitics.


India’s decision to place the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance with immediate effect marks a historic shift in a bilateral relationship long defined by violent flashpoints but surprisingly resilient agreements. Since its signing in 1960, the IWT has symbolised a threadbare but essential rationality in Indo-Pak relations. Following Pahalgam, that thread has now been deliberately cut.


Though India has not formally abrogated the treaty, it has effectively suspended its spirit and operation. The Modi government has halted data sharing and technical engagements, withdrawn from Indus Commission meetings, and frozen clearances for future hydroelectric projects on the western rivers: the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. India may now also escalate construction of storage infrastructure on these waters - assets it is legally permitted to develop but has historically refrained from maximising. This is a well-calibrated lever of pressure. For Pakistan, where agriculture and drinking water depend heavily on the Indus system, even a partial squeeze can send tremors through its economy. India has cleverly created a situation where Islamabad cannot appeal to international norms without first confronting its continued support for cross-border militancy.


Alongside the treaty’s suspension, India has expelled Pakistan’s military attachés and their support staff from its High Commission in New Delhi. Still, these steps, by the government’s own signalling, are only the prelude.


Economic strangulation has its uses, especially when it plays to India’s hydrological upper hand and growing regional clout. But it cannot be the endgame. The Pahalgam massacre was a calculated provocation designed to test New Delhi’s deterrence. So far, that deterrence looks procedural, not punitive.


A strong military response remains both likely and necessary. The surgical strikes of 2016 and the Balakot air raid in 2019 may have altered the vocabulary of Indian retaliation, but they have not ended Pakistan’s addiction to asymmetric warfare. The message from Pahalgam is that Pakistan’s generals remain confident that India’s threshold for retaliation is high, and that terror can be exported with strategic impunity. That calculus must change. If India seeks to re-establish deterrence and restore the sanctity of its borders and its dead, it must trade maps for munitions. The water wars have begun but they are merely pressure tactics, not punishment.


A calibrated military strike would serve as a kinetic reminder that India’s patience is not infinite. It must hit not just at proxies, but at the infrastructure of terror shielded by Pakistan’s military-intelligence complex. The price of exporting jihad must be made unambiguously steep. While hydrological tools can squeeze, they cannot scare.

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